malaysian 239 downed

[stonehart]

quote

So the plane supposedly changed direction and flew for hours into the Indian Ocean towards...... Diego Garcia, the home of a naval base belonging to the worlds most technologically advanced military superpower.....and we're still supposed to believe no-one picked it up via satellite??

Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost - PPRuNe Forums

ah yeah they would have seen that for sure no if or but about it if it got close enough

 

[boomerang]

But the list does not take into account that a plane could have touched down in a location other than an airport.
One pilot who flies 777-200s, Rich Solan, told Slate that the plane could even have landed on a highway.

I really hadn't thought of putting the plane down on a long stretch of highway. But yeah, that's definitely a viable scenario.

 

[stonehart]

Missing plane: Flight path programmed in - World - NZ Herald News

The turn that diverted the missing Malaysia Airlines plane off its flight path was programmed into the aircraft's computer navigation system, probably by someone in the cockpit, the New York Times reports.

That reinforces the increasing belief among investigators that the aircraft was deliberately diverted, the newspaper said late on Monday, quoting US officials.

 

[marduk]

Interesting...

"Investigators have discovered the runways of five airports near the Indian Ocean loaded into Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah’s home-made flight simulator, a Malay daily reported today.


An unnamed source told Berita Harian that while it was too early to make any conclusions on the new finding, it was still considered an important element in the probe on the whereabouts of the plane and its 239 people.

“The simulation programmes are based on runways at the Male International Airport in Maldives, an airport owned by the United States (Diego Garcia), and three other runways in India and Sri Lanka, all have runway lengths of 1,000 metres.

“We are not discounting the possibility that the plane landed on a runway that might not be heavily monitored, in addition to the theories that the plane landed on sea, in the hills, or in an open space,” the source was quoted as saying."

- See more at: Cops find five Indian Ocean practice runways in MH370 pilot’s simulator, BH reports | Malaysia | The Malay Mail Online​

 

[marduk]

Maybe Putin annexed the flight... after the passengers democratically elected to join Mother Russia, of course?

 

[Bob Watson]

Beaten to it! Now the pilot thief theory is getting more legs.

Sent from my SCH-I435 using Tapatalk

 

[Constance]

Missing plane: Flight path programmed in - World - NZ Herald News

I've been wondering if that change could have been programmed into the computer before the plane took off. CNN addresses that question online:

There is no indication of when the coordinates were entered into the computer. It could have been done during the flight or, as is more common, during preflight preparations, the official said.

Could it have been done prior to preflight procedures/run-throughs/checks and not noticed? What's involved in the preflight procedures and might there be fail-safes installed to prevent a similar diversion in the future?

 

[Randall]

Agree 100%, that's what I'm thinking.

Some ideas rattling through my head:
- something big is up involving international security so everybody staying quiet is needed while it gets sorted out
- it was hijacked and the hijackers are demanding the silence (think about the public pressure to take out the hijackers if it's on the ground somewhere)
- whoever took it doesn't care about the people, they just want the plane. It's worth $30-50M USD.
- it's part of a much larger scheme. Park the plane, pack it full of explosives, put the people back on it, and fly it somewhere like Delhi or Mumbai or somewhere, demand $1B while it's in the air. Or gamble that it won't be shot down and will take out your target. Wasn't that on an episode of BSG? They cylons took a carrier full of humans, brought it back with a nuke on board, and headed it straight for the fleet betting that the humans would flinch?

Whatever it was, it was something bad. I'm guessing it's on the ground in a hanger somewhere.

I heard that the Malaysian Military had tracked it on RADAR at over 40,000 ft. ( maxed out it's service ceiling ), so the other less conspiratorial possibility is that it had a catastrophic depressurization and disintegrated and fell over hundreds of square miles of sea, or perhaps flamed out and hit the water so hard it disintegrated most of the plane on impact. The latter should still have provided reasonably accurate search coordinates, but the former would make it uncertain were all the debris is to be found.

 

[mike]

I heard that the Malaysian Military had tracked it on RADAR at over 40,000 ft. ( maxed out it's service ceiling ), so the other less conspiratorial possibility is that it had a catastrophic depressurization and disintegrated and fell over hundreds of square miles of sea, or perhaps flamed out and hit the water so hard it disintegrated most of the plane on impact. The latter should still have provided reasonably accurate search coordinates, but the former would make it uncertain were all the debris is to be found.

Given the data that seems unlikely

Flight 370 reportedly climbed past 45,000 feet—well above the plane's approved altitude—and changed courses several times in a deliberate manner, as if it were still being steered by a pilot.
Citing American officials and others familiar with the investigation, the New York Times reports that radar data collected by the Malaysian military shows the plane's rapid ascent, followed a turn to the west. The plane then descended to 23,000 feet before changing course again, flying northwest over the Strait of Malacca in the direction of the Indian Ocean. From the Times:

So it looks like after it went past 45,000 feet it then descended to 23,000 feet and changed course again.......

 

[Randall]

Given the data that seems unlikely
So it looks like after it went past 45,000 feet it then descended to 23,000 feet and changed course again.......

Perhaps it was being pursued by some other aircraft ( or drone ) they aren't telling us about and was taking evasive maneuvers.

 

[Bob Watson]

Or killing the passengers. .

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[mike]

Again it must be stressed , that we dont have the answers yet, and that this puzzle is being solved as best can be via the clues as they trickle in.

But this is significant imo

Following yesterday's revelation that the plane's altered flight path had been programmed through a computer in the cockpit, it has been revealed today that those new coordinates were already in motion when co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid made the final radio contact – "All right, good night" – before the jet vanished.

The "new piece of the puzzle" was revealed by former Federal Aviation Administration spokesman Scott Brenner on Fox News, who said it was understood MH370 had turned and was heading west at 1.07am, 12 minutes before Mr Hamid's final words at 1.19am, at which time he would have been aware he had gone off course.
"One of the pilots clearly had the intention that he was going to take (the plane) in a different direction," Mr Brenner said.
"It was 100 percent clear that this pilot or co-pilot was going to take this plane with the intent of doing something bad."

Mr Brenner's evidence adds weight to the theory that the pilot, co-pilot or both men were responsible for possibly hijacking the aircraft with 239 people on board.

MH370 pilot signed off '12 minutes into new path'

Ultimately the theory they suffered some catastrophic event like cabin fire that precluded them sending a mayday is at odds with the flight data.
That the pilot didnt say a word about the flight path changes is very strange

Analysts on CNN's "AC360" offered different interpretations of what that could mean -- with some experts cautioning the change in direction could have been part of an alternate flight plan programmed in advance in case of emergency, and others warning it could show something more nefarious was afoot.
"We don't know when specifically it was entered," said Mary Schiavo, a CNN aviation analyst and former inspector general for the U.S. Department of Transportation.
New York Times reporter Michael Schmidt said the new timeframe "makes the issue of foul play seem more significant."
"Because by doing that," he said, "what it basically shows is that this thing was already heading in a different direction when they're saying good night."

If this alternate flight plan was initiated as part of an emergency, why then 12 mins later do the pilots not issue a mayday, instead of a calm goodnight

 

[RenaissanceLady]

Sadly ironic:



I can't imagine what the families and loved ones of the passengers must be suffering right now. There has been so much speculation coming from all sides, perpetuated by a media that wants to report something when nothing is available.

I thought this article by a pilot in Wired.com made some decent points about the pilots programming in the nearest airport after some extreme events, then possibly crashing on route. Then another expert did his best to debunk the pilot's theory. In the end, we still don't know. When this first occurred, it seems we were all expecting some sudden, catastrophic event to have taken place. Then the theory is that a pilot or other expert may have hijacked the plane, which keeps gaining and losing credibility with each new hypothesis. Of course, we have to also hear from those who think aliens were involved. (It's the whole, "I don't know. Therefore, aliens," meme which has been beaten to death.) A few morons are even taking on the "Zionist" / Mossad angle, which might as well lead to some Zionist / Mossad / Alien theory. Conspiracy theories often bring out the worst of human prejudices. I have no idea how far this will go, even if the plane is eventually found. If it isn't found, I shudder to think of the insanity that leach its way into the mainstream culture.

 

[boomerang]

The "new piece of the puzzle" was revealed by former Federal Aviation Administration spokesman Scott Brenner on Fox News, who said it was understood MH370 had turned and was heading west at 1.07am, 12 minutes before Mr Hamid's final words at 1.19am, at which time he would have been aware he had gone off course.

Interesting and I'm linking to the interview. This seems odd, inasmuch as it seems ground controllers would question the pilot regarding the plane's sharp deviation. But I'm no expert and there may be more to the story.

------

Just watched the Faux News video. Interesting for sure, but the info babe asked a confounding array of confusing rapid fire questions. ACARS and the plane's transponders are two different systems. We have so far been given the impression that we know the plane continued to fly many hours after the transponders were turned off due to continuing ACARS data. The interview leaves the impression that the transponders were already off and ACARS emitted its last ping shortly after the plane turned westward and the co-pilot had given his "good night". I'm wondering if Malyasia is really sharing all it knows.

Just when you think it can't get any stranger....

 

[trainedobserver]

I really don't see how they expect to find them. Someone on CNN this morning said it was like trying to locate three people wandering around in an area the size of the continental United States. I'm thinking if they haven't found them by now, they won't find them alive. I also wonder just how much of the debris could be afloat to be found.

I wonder what kind of response this is going to trigger in the industry, if more security and tracking will be mandated?

How many sci-fi movies and television episodes have revolved around "disappearing airplanes"? Granted, they are usually told from the perspective of the passengers, but the real suspense and horror stories in this case belong to their families.

 

[marduk]

Perhaps it was being pursued by some other aircraft ( or drone ) they aren't telling us about and was taking evasive maneuvers.

I'd find it hard to image a 777 taking evasive maneuvers from anything. They're like big busses in the sky.

 

[marduk]

The speculation is caused by the random clues being released by the powers that be.

It would seem that most of the data has been in the hands of "those in the know" for some time, but is being released piecemeal. I struggle to think that there isn't some master timeline of events on a wall somewhere with relatively complete sources of information, that satellite and other data hasn't already been correlated, and I for one think that someone knows exactly where the damn plane is and isn't releasing the information.

It's human nature to try to correlate and create a story out of randomly released pieces of data. To expect a different response from humanity is to not understand humanity.

 

[marduk]

Someone on CNN this morning said it was like trying to locate three people wandering around in an area the size of the continental United States.

I don't agree with that statement at all.

A 777 is a mostly white shiny piece of metal loaded with multiple transponders, active and passive radar, and is more than 200x200 feet across flying over a mostly empty ocean.

An ocean with several nation's advanced military assets and routinely covered by satellite and other sensory sources.

It was flying at 5000 feet, likely over some populated land, where people did see/hear it, and reported it.

I struggle thinking that some nation-state's military doesn't know exactly where the plane is. Especially given the post-911 paranoia about hijacked planes, and this one was clearly taken.

The fact that the flight path was programmed and executed before the co-pilot signed off for the night, and the excessive manoeuvring later makes most other scenarios (i.e. 'fire') unlikely.

In my mind it is clear either the pilot, the co-pilot, or both took the plane. Look at the runways one of them were checking out and doing test runs on his flight sim.

Let's not forget the cost of one of these planes is > $300M. The passengers may have just gotten in the way of what was essentially grand theft aero.

 

[Randall]

I'd find it hard to image a 777 taking evasive maneuvers from anything. They're like big busses in the sky.

True but with a ceiling of over 40,000 ft. and a speed of Mach .89 there are many smaller planes that it could outrun and outclimb. So if it was a case of air piracy with some smaller non-military plane trying to force it down, then it could very well have an advantage. That could explain the maneuvers anyway.

 

[marduk]

True but with a ceiling of over 40,000 ft. and a speed of Mach .89 there are many smaller planes that it could outrun and outclimb. So if it was a case of air piracy with some smaller non-military plane trying to force it down, then it could very well have an advantage. That could explain the maneuvers anyway.

I see your point, but there are two main problems that I see:

#1 The only way to force a 777 down with another plane that I see is either with bullets or missiles. The rate of climb for a 777 seems to be ~7000 feet per minute. The old, decommed F4 had a rate of climb of ~40,000 feet per minute. A MIG-15 from 1948 had a rate of climb the same as a 777. The 777's a beast. So almost any jet with guns on it could have kept up with it's rate of climb. And you're not gonna out-climb a air to air missile.

#2 The fact that the flight deviation was programmed in prior to the relaxed "good night" call from the co-pilot didn't indicate anything of the sort.