The Official Paracast Political Thread! — Part Four

[Gene Steinberg]

You're on the borderline here. Settle down. If you want to criticize someone, make an effort to use facts, not insults or what some might regard as racially charged insults. Thank you.

 

[pixelsmith]

Its not my war.


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[SRL+]

Nah. It's theatrics.

My read is that Putin is fully aligned with this. He wants an excuse to get out of Syria. I wouldn't be surprised if he ordered the strike and Trump happily burned $100M worth of American ordinance and took the fall for being the bad guy.

Putin will ask for concessions to save face, Trump will give them, we'll move on.

MSNBC host’s conspiracy theory: What if Putin planned the Syrian chemical attack to help Trump?

 

[mike]

Im still keen to see the evidence that the nerve gas was Syrian. we know back in 2013 there were reports the saudis had supplied the rebels.

However, from numerous interviews with doctors, Ghouta residents, rebel fighters and their families, a different picture emerges. Many believe that certain rebels received chemical weapons via the Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, and were responsible for carrying out the dealing gas attack.

“My son came to me two weeks ago asking what I thought the weapons were that he had been asked to carry,” said Abu Abdel-Moneim, the father of a rebel fighting to unseat Assad, who lives in Ghouta.

Abdel-Moneim said his son and 12 other rebels were killed inside of a tunnel used to store weapons provided by a Saudi militant, known as Abu Ayesha, who was leading a fighting battalion. The father described the weapons as having a “tube-like structure” while others were like a “huge gas bottle.”

If the Saudi's are responsible, will the US bomb them ? Or what if Russia bombs the Saudi's on a similar pretext causing an oil crisis. ?

It strikes me as really shortsighted to have taken this action on many levels.

If the Saudis did supply the gas, they have just found the lever they need to push the US into full scale conflict.
If it was the regime that did it, they lost nothing in this attack, and while they might not use gas again. There is nothing, no line to cross in regards to the continued use of conventional bombs to blow up women and children.

A cost/benefit analysis doesn't seem to show much profit for the west in this.

On top of that the conflict is multi layered. Different rebel factions are fighting each other and the regime, ISIS controls large parts of it, ousting the secular regime will almost certainly lead to an Islamic fundamentalist govt taking its place, top of the list being IS.

Interesting times as the purported Chinese curse goes.

As playground politics goes, its backfired. It seems like classic playground politics. ie to show the other tough guys you are not weak, you find the smallest player and attack him, hoping the other guys will note the object lesson and not mess with you. But N Korea has now gone into nuclear mode, using this pretext as proof the US is a mad dog answerable to no one and that their nuke program now makes perfect sense to deal with such a threat.
China is playing a long game and wont make too much noise, but Iran and Russia wont stand by and see their gas revenues wiped out by a Qatari gas pipeline through syria

 

[mike]

MSNBC host’s conspiracy theory: What if Putin planned the Syrian chemical attack to help Trump?

Similar ideas are doing the circuit on the news here. A public war of words with Russia defuses the claim that Trump and Putin are in league with each other.
The waters get further muddied by the emerging dynamic that many who hated Trump are cheering him on over this attack, while many supporters are not happy with it.

 

[mike]

I don't know how credible this source is, Anyone else heard of him.

H. R. McMaster Manipulating Intelligence Reports to Trump, Wants 150,000 Ground Soldiers in Syria

 

[marduk]

MSNBC host’s conspiracy theory: What if Putin planned the Syrian chemical attack to help Trump?

I don't think Putin planned it.

I do think it means he wants a way out of this mess his lapdog Assad made.

 

[marduk]

Its not my war.


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Anytime such weapons are used, it is everyone's war.

 

[pixelsmith]

I am a pacifist. It's not my war.


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[Gene Steinberg]

I don't think Putin planned it.

I do think it means he wants a way out of this mess his lapdog Assad made.

The Russians were given one hour notice of the attack.

The damage was small enough for it to cause only minor inconvenience to Syria, but create great publicity for Trump during a week where other issues had consumed the narrative.

Never hurts to have a little bombing when things are otherwise dicey.

 

[Gene Steinberg]

I am a pacifist. It's not my war.


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Does it concern you, however, that Trump is so easily influenced by a few photos of tragedy or a voice in his ear?

Remember that, before the chemical attack in question, there were loads of other killings that went by without his notice, and he once even said he could look a Syrian child in the eye and not accept them as refugees in this country.

 

[Bob Watson]

The Russians were given one hour notice of the attack.

The damage was small enough for it to cause only minor inconvenience to Syria, but create great publicity for Trump during a week where other issues had consumed the narrative.

Never hurts to have a little bombing when things are otherwise dicey.

Wag the dog

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[Gene Steinberg]

Yep.

 

[pixelsmith]

Does it concern you, however, that Trump is so easily influenced by a few photos of tragedy or a voice in his ear?

Remember that, before the chemical attack in question, there were loads of other killings that went by without his notice, and he once even said he could look a Syrian child in the eye and not accept them as refugees in this country.

Not my monkeys not my circus.

 

[mike]

According to news reports, before the strikes, Trump was briefed on options to retaliate against Assad. One was to launch “saturation strikes” aimed at dozens of Syrian airfields and facilities, with the goal of destroying Assad’s ability to use his air force to carry out further chemical attacks. (This option was similar to the one reportedly contemplated by President Barack Obama in 2013.)

At the urging of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, Trump rejected this option in favor of cruise missile strikes against a single air base. This option was reportedly viewed as proportional and much less likely to kill Russian soldiers. (Although around 100 Russian troops were reportedly stationed at Shayrat, the administration warned Moscow ahead of time, and the missiles struck the portion of the airfield away from Russian barracks.)

In other words, Trump chose a limited strike package precisely because he and his advisers understood the grave risks if the United States attacked a broader set of targets But therein lies a major dilemma for Trump moving forward. Successful deterrence requires a credible threat to hit Assad’s forces again if the regime continues to use chemical weapons or commits other transgressions. Yet Trump, having already rejected a larger military response out of apparent recognition of the dangers, may find it difficult to credibly signal he is willing to deploy this option in response to further actions by Assad down the line.

In this context, the danger of miscalculation is real. The Syrian dictator (perhaps prodded by Russia or Iran) may attempt to test Trump again, hoping to prove the president is a “paper tiger.” And Trump, having invested his personal credibility in standing firm, may find himself psychologically or politically compelled to respond, despite the very real risks that it could result in a direct military clash with Russia.

 

[marduk]

The Russians were given one hour notice of the attack.

The damage was small enough for it to cause only minor inconvenience to Syria, but create great publicity for Trump during a week where other issues had consumed the narrative.

Never hurts to have a little bombing when things are otherwise dicey.

I believe that was so the Russian assets would be safely out of the way.

Trump lost a lot of neo-con support over the strike. His base.

Ergo, it likely benefited one man: Putin.

 

[mike]

Not my monkeys not my circus.

Except if this degenerates to MAD, You get destroyed along with everyone else.

 

[pixelsmith]

Except if this degenerates to MAD, You get destroyed along with everyone else.

I've died 4 times already. I'm not scared.

 

[mike]

I believe that was so the Russian assets would be safely out of the way.

Trump lost a lot of neo-con support over the strike. His base.

Ergo, it likely benefited one man: Putin.

And the strike was very precise, Russian barracks on the airfield were untouched.

 

[mike]

I've died 4 times already. I'm not scared.

Radiation sickness is a slow and horrible way to go.