Speaking of modelling. Here's a fairly good peer reviewed paper dealing with the outbreak in the UK.
www.bmj.com
Notice in the graph below how it proves what I've been trying to get across already several times when it comes to the concept of "flattening the curve" The "Do nothing" approach ( which was never advocated by the GBD ) clearly shows that by now the whole thing would be over with only a relatively marginal and temporary excess load on the healthcare system and no "second wave".


Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions
Objective To replicate and analyse the information available to UK policymakers when the lockdown decision was taken in March 2020 in the United Kingdom. Design Independent calculations using the CovidSim code, which implements Imperial College London’s individual based model, with data...
Notice in the graph below how it proves what I've been trying to get across already several times when it comes to the concept of "flattening the curve" The "Do nothing" approach ( which was never advocated by the GBD ) clearly shows that by now the whole thing would be over with only a relatively marginal and temporary excess load on the healthcare system and no "second wave".
