COVID-19 News

[Randall]

Speaking of modelling. Here's a fairly good peer reviewed paper dealing with the outbreak in the UK.

Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions

Objective To replicate and analyse the information available to UK policymakers when the lockdown decision was taken in March 2020 in the United Kingdom. Design Independent calculations using the CovidSim code, which implements Imperial College London’s individual based model, with data...

www.bmj.com

Notice in the graph below how it proves what I've been trying to get across already several times when it comes to the concept of "flattening the curve" The "Do nothing" approach ( which was never advocated by the GBD ) clearly shows that by now the whole thing would be over with only a relatively marginal and temporary excess load on the healthcare system and no "second wave".

 

[Constance]

The same could be said for the life expectancy estimates you cite as well as for the virus. The only difference is that those dying now as collateral damage aren't getting the same attention, even when their numbers have in some places exceeded the deaths by COVID-19. Remember the article I posted about suicides in Japan? The overdoses in BC? And other real numbers have climbed as a result of the lack of care for other medical issues. These aren't just some far-off abstract model. They are real people too.

Randall, sorry but I don't see any sense or logic in the various random statistics you've been citing for months as some kind of 'reason?' for governments or populations to behave as if we are all not facing a gravely serious and mutating pandemic that could become unstoppable. If we humans were better prepared to work together for the survival of our species, other species, and the health of our planet's global ecosystem and economy, we would not have wasted more than a year -- especially in the U.S. -- subjected to ignorant reactions against the necessary collective effort to contain and suppress this by now vigorously mutating virus. Lots of fiddling while earth and our own species, which increasingly seems to be questionably worth saving, fuck around rather than think and work together. The US has now experienced more deaths from Covid than any other country in the world, thanks to the catastrophic ignorance and malice of our previous president.

 

[Gene Steinberg]

Remember Trump’s middle names are “ignorance” and “malice.”

 

[Randall]

Randall, sorry but I don't see any sense or logic in the various random statistics you've been citing for months as some kind of 'reason?' for governments or populations to behave as if we are all not facing a gravely serious and mutating pandemic

Maybe start by turning down the "gravely serious" part based on the studies that show that the disease is in many cases so mild that depending on where you are, between 40% and 90% of those infected don't even know they have it. Then accept that the vast majority of the rest recover fine within 14 days without hospitalization.

Most of the remaining few who end-up in hospital also recover, and the small percentage who don't virtually all have some kind of preexisting condition, many of which were terminal prior to being infected, but they ended-up in the COVID stats because of changes to the way the cause of death was to be reported. It's complex. You need to be able to see how these "random statistics" form a larger picture.

The biggest problem in dealing with the hospitalizations, is the lack of adequate universal health care. This opinion is echoed by the WHO. China built a dedicated COVID-19 hospital complete with isolated patient care rooms in 10 days. In over a year now, with trillions estimated to be lost due to the way the pandemic has been managed, how many new hospitals has the USA built? How many citizens have quality universal health care?

that could become unstoppable. If we humans were better prepared to work together for the survival of our species, other species, and the health of our planet's global ecosystem and economy, we would not have wasted more than a year -- especially in the U.S. -- subjected to ignorant reactions against the necessary collective effort to contain and suppress this by now vigorously mutating virus.

There is plenty of disagreement on what should be deemed "necessary". And if "We're all in this together" then why do some lives seem to be more important than others?

Lots of fiddling while earth and our own species, which increasingly seems to be questionably worth saving, fuck around rather than think and work together.

That sounds nice, but most people in free nations prefer to decide for themselves what work they should be doing, rather than be told what work they should be doing by some authoritarian regime.

The US has now experienced more deaths from Covid than any other country in the world, thanks to the catastrophic ignorance and malice of our previous president.

There's plenty of blame to go around, starting with the CCP.

 

[Randall]

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the $16 Trillion Virus​

"Even individuals who do not develop COVID-19 are affected by the virus. Loss of life among friends and loved ones, fear of contracting the virus, concern about economic security, and the effects of isolation and loneliness have all taken a toll on the mental health of the population. The proportion of US adults who report symptoms of depression or anxiety has averaged approximately 40% since April 2020; the comparable figure in early 2019 was 11.0%.5 These data translate to an estimated 80 million additional individuals with these mental health conditions related to COVID-19. If, in line with prevailing estimates, the cost of these conditions is valued at about $20 000 per person per year and the mental health symptoms last for only 1 year, the valuation of these losses could reach approximately $1.6 trillion."​

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the $16 Trillion Virus

In this Viewpoint, 2 Harvard economists estimate the cumulative financial costs of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US to date from lost domestic output and health reduction at more than $16 trillion, as a way to put the lesser costs of public health measures, such as population testing, contact...

jamanetwork.com

 

[Constance]

I think you're not seeing the forest for the various trees that you focus on in your Cassandra-like agonizing about the multiplying fallouts from the pandemic. You seem to have long struggled against accepting the logic of changing our self-centered ways of life long enough to actually contain the virus.

From the article you cited above, these are the most important and relevant paragraphs:

"Output losses of this magnitude are immense. The lost output in the Great Recession was only one-quarter as large. The economic loss is more than twice the total monetary outlay for all the wars the US has fought since September 11, 2001, including those in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.6 By another metric, this cost is approximately the estimate of damages (such as from decreased agricultural productivity and more frequent severe weather events) from 50 years of climate change.7

For this reason, policies that can materially reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 have enormous social value. Consider a policy of wide-scale population testing, contact tracing, and isolation. For example, assuming 100 000 individuals are tested, the cost of testing would be approximately $6 million. According to current values for SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in some areas, approximately 5000 people will test positive."

And the economist's concluding paragraph:

"More generally, the immense financial loss from COVID-19 suggests a fundamental rethinking of government’s role in pandemic preparation. Currently, the US prioritizes spending on acute treatment, with far less spending on public health services and infrastructure. As the nation struggles to recover from COVID-19, investments that are made in testing, contact tracing, and isolation should be established permanently and not dismantled when the concerns about COVID-19 begin to recede."

While the economist who wrote this article agonizes about the economic consequences of the pandemic, he does not ignore the actual elephant in the room and the undoubtable necessity of removing him.

 

[Constance]

Can COVID vaccines stop transmission? Scientists race to find answers

19 FEBRUARY 2021

Can COVID vaccines stop transmission? Scientists race to find answers​

Controlling the pandemic will require shots that prevent viral spread, but that feature is difficult to measure. . . .

 

[Randall]

I think you're not seeing the forest for the various trees that you focus on in your Cassandra-like agonizing about the multiplying fallouts from the pandemic.

Correction: Not "The pandemic". I specifically use the phrase or refer to "pandemic management", because it's not the virus that has forced millions of healthy people to lose their jobs and businesses. It's politicians.

You seem to have long struggled against accepting the logic of changing our self-centered ways of life long enough to actually contain the virus.

If being "self-centered" means caring whether or not parents can put food on their table and roof over their kid's heads rather than having to be forced to close-up shop when there are better options, then fine, I'm all for being self-centered. But then again, maybe you're one of those who don't believe the logic of The Great Barrington Declaration, created by PhDs from Harvard, Stanford, and Oxford, and signed by over 50,000 medical scientists and health care professionals. Curious why so many glibly write it off. What's your reason? I'm sure you must be much more well informed than all of them. Right?

BTW, the Cassandra allusion is misplaced. It's not my distress I'm concerned nobody pays any attention to. I'm used to that. Besides that, I'm doing relatively fine. It's the distress of millions of others.

 

[Constance]

STAT: Backed by Google, epidemiologists launch a sweeping Covid-19 data platform

Backed by Google, epidemiologists launch a sweeping Covid data platform

 

[Randall]

STAT: Backed by Google, epidemiologists launch a sweeping Covid-19 data platform

Backed by Google, epidemiologists launch a sweeping Covid data platform

This is so badly needed. I just hope the data sets aren't skewed in a way that won't enable researchers to properly compare it to data before the changes in reporting COVID fatalities went into effect, or if that factor is even in the data set. There can be all sorts of inaccuracies in interpretation of the data, if certain variables are left out, like the number of false positives and whether or not "cases" were tested for other diseases besides COVID-19 that could account for their symptoms ( if any ), instead of assuming the symptoms were caused by COVID-19.

TO ADD

I just had a quick look at some of the stats and there are a lot of holes in the data, So far about al it's good for is tracing cases that assumed to be "confirmed", but the method of confirmation isn't clear. If they're PCR tests, the data could be wildly off ( see previous post on that ). I didn't see much detail on the "preexisting conditions" that are mentioned, or if tests for other diseases were also done.

So far it's looking like a lot of junk in, and consequently junk out, but I've only scratched the surface, so I'll have to have a closer look and update later.

Global.health

Global.health is the first of its kind, easy to use global data repository and visualization platform that enables open access to real-time epidemiological anonymized line-list data.

global.health

Alberta Cases: Global.health | a Data Science Initiative

 

[Gene Steinberg]

So Barbara and I have scheduled our COVID-19 vaccinations beginning March 2nd at a local Walgreens. I think it's going to be the Moderna version. So if we start growing horns and wings in the next few weeks, that's why. People who get flu shots often get mild cases of flu within the first day or two. The symptoms with the COVID-19 vaccines are the result of the immune system ramping up and have been widely described.

 

[Randall]

People who get flu shots often get mild cases of flu within the first day or two. The symptoms with the COVID-19 vaccines are the result of the immune system ramping up and have been widely described.

I had what was probably some kind of flu about 4 years ago and it's the only time I remember having anything remotely like it. It was a fever and chills for 2 days. By the third day the fever had broke, and by the fourth I felt almost normal. For me, that was a small price to pay for not volunteering to get 60+ cases of "mild symptoms", and I also got naturally immunized against whatever it was in the process. However in theory, people in other more high-risk environments would benefit more often from flu vaccines, and therefore I can see why those particular people would choose to volunteer.

Good luck !

 

[Gene Steinberg]

As I've mentioned on the show a few times, I did have a few days of flu-like symptoms in January of 2020. Don't recall if Barbara fell ill. She rarely runs a fever.

We do get flu shots each fall, but that doesn't guarantee you won't be infected since the vaccine makers are making just good guesses as to which strain is most rampant. However, I was also driving for Lyft and Uber at the time, picking up passengers traveling from Europe and Asia from the airport. This all occurred when people in the U.S. were first being infected with COVID-19, so it's possible that's what I had. But I never bothered to visit my doctor, and I haven't bothered to take a test since then since I have not experienced any undue symptoms since then.

I have talked to a couple of people since then who had COVID-19 — people at or near my age group — and the symptoms were absolutely awful. I don't need to recount them, and I don't mind taking the few precautions necessary to reduce (but not eliminate) the possibility of infection. Of course if I've already had the virus, I might be at least somewhat immune still. I am getting the vaccinations this coming month out of caution. I have better things to do than to consider the possibility that I might get some disease that I can, for the most part, avoid. Not at my age.

 

[Randall]

As I've mentioned on the show a few times, I did have a few days of flu-like symptoms in January of 2020. Don't recall if Barbara fell ill. She rarely runs a fever.

We do get flu shots each fall, but that doesn't guarantee you won't be infected since the vaccine makers are making just good guesses as to which strain is most rampant. However, I was also driving for Lyft and Uber at the time, picking up passengers traveling from Europe and Asia from the airport. This all occurred when people in the U.S. were first being infected with COVID-19, so it's possible that's what I had. But I never bothered to visit my doctor, and I haven't bothered to take a test since then since I have not experienced any undue symptoms since then.

I have talked to a couple of people since then who had COVID-19 — people at or near my age group — and the symptoms were absolutely awful. I don't need to recount them, and I don't mind taking the few precautions necessary to reduce (but not eliminate) the possibility of infection. Of course if I've already had the virus, I might be at least somewhat immune still. I am getting the vaccinations this coming month out of caution. I have better things to do than to consider the possibility that I might get some disease that I can, for the most part, avoid. Not at my age.

It's not only your right to choose, it also sounds you have reasonable concerns. I might start with vaccinations if I feel my immune system is getting worn down by age, but so-far, I seem to be doing well enough to let others who either need it more than me or want it, have it.

 

[Randall]

Set aside your political bias for a moment and just listen.
Counterpoint follows​

COVID Didn’t Crush the Economy, Government Did​

​

February 27, 2021 - ORLANDO​

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“COVID didn’t crush the economy. Government crushed the economy,” Noem said, prompting applause from the crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC)."​

​

She's right about a lot of things, including putting the blame on governments for the economic fallout, and pointing out that politicians are blaming it on the virus instead of their management strategies. But let's be reminded that the prevailing government at the time she's referring to was Republican. and that putting the blame on democratic states is oversimplifying. Yes Democrats were demonizing those who questioned lockdowns, but I don't think there's any shortage of Republicans demonizing those who intended to save lives with the lockdowns.

Perhaps most importantly, I don't see any motivation to try to bridge the divide between parties ( like Obama did ). Instead there seems to be a theme to make the divide even worse. Why is it that American politics has to be so polarized? What ever happened to the "United" in "United States"?

Fact check: South Dakota governor ignores poor health numbers to claim state's pandemic performance has been 'better than virtually every other state'

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem claimed in a Fox News interview on Tuesday that, thanks to her state's "unique" approach to the coronavirus pandemic, they "got through it better than virtually every other state."

www.cnn.com

 

[Gene Steinberg]

It used to be a place for conservatives to have reasoned discussions about policy. Nowdays, CPAC is the lunatic fringe of the Republican Party. Blaming Democrats for everything is just the party line, not a factual statement.

Fact checking CPAC: speakers make false claims about the election, the Capitol attack, immigration, Covid, and The Muppets

The Conservative Political Action Conference began Friday and continued Saturday with a series of false claims about the 2020 election and many other subjects.

www.cnn.com

 

[Gene Steinberg]

Barbara and I got our first shot at Walgreens this afternoon. They space appointments 15 minutes apart, and require you sit there for 15 minutes after the inoculation to make sure you don't self-destruct before they give you a card to demonstrate you received the vaccination.

We received the Moderna vaccine, meaning we get the second dose in four weeks. That's the one where light flu-like symptoms (fatigue, mild fever, chills) are possible for the first day or two. But no self-destructing we expect.

So if I record the first episode in April with wolf hairs and horns, you'll know why.

 

[Randall]

DISCLAIMER: This post is intended to inform readers about what anti-maskers are saying. It is not intended to either advocate or condemn. Personally I just like to read the variou claims, and decide for myself rather than relying on whatever my personal bias or opinion might be in the absence of that knowledge. If you can do the same, you might find some of the content interesting.

What No Maskers are saying about the "science" behind mask mandates​

NOMASKERS.ORG

NOMASKERS.ORG challenges COVID-19 mask mandates, irrational mandates and compulsory vaccinations.

www.nomaskers.org

 

[Randall]

On The Conspiracy Show - 2020-11-02

Canadian constitutional lawyer Rocco Galati recently filed a 191-page lawsuit against multiple levels of government over their response to the coronavirus pandemic. The lawsuit seeks several official declarations from the courts that pandemic measures are neither scientific nor medically-based, that they are extreme, irrational, and unwarranted, and that they breach multiple sections of our Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

Coronavirus Lockdown Lawsuit

Richard welcomes a Canadian constitutional lawyer who recently filed a 191-page lawsuit against multiple levels of government over their response to the coronavirus pandemic. The lawsuit seeks several official declarations from the courts that pandemic measures are neither scientific nor...

www.podbean.com

 

[Gene Steinberg]

Somebody needs a life.