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September 24, 2017 — Paracast Listener Grills Gene and Randall


No news, but I am going to send you an image so you can see what it looked like.

Great. I'll be glad to have a look.

For the record, I am not absolutely anti-ETH. Still, the other day I listened to an interview of Richard Dolan and a guest who'd compiled a bunch of stats about UFO reports. The guest said that there was very little overlap between MUFON and Peter Davenport's reporting systems. If so, then make a rough guestimate of about 15,000 total yearly reports between the two of "something." Knock that down to a 5 percent figure and you still wind up with 750 reports a year of something likely to be actually anomalous, and that is 2 a day, just for North America. So to me the sheer volume seems to point to something more like an indigenous phenomenon, not actual interstellar visitation. But I don't necessarily discount that as a possibility.

Then too, not long ago I came across an article about the orientation of the solar system in our Milky Way galaxy. The plane of our solar system is tilted about 60 degrees relative to the plane of the Milky Way. That means that of all the stars in this galaxy, only a very tiny number would ever see any of the solar system's planets cross the face of the sun, and that is one of the more prominent ways we determine if a star has planets. The point is, that for the billions of stars in the galaxy, our solar system would not easily register as a place with orbiting planets, and thus would not seem to be high on the "let's go visit" scale. There may be other ways to determine whether other solar systems have planets, but that is one of the ways we humans are using.
 
- I struggle with the ETH because there is no scientific evidence that proves extra terrestrial life exists
This is where analytical reasoning comes in handy.

The state of scientific capability at this point is insufficient to detect life on exosolar planets. Therefore, the fact that we’ve haven’t detected life elsewhere in the cosmos is a meaningless, counterfactual argument. It would be an entirely different matter if science were capable of detecting life signs on exosolar planets, and we failed to detect it – that would mean something. At this point however, the absence of evidence means nothing.

The correct question to ask is this: given our current situation, what evidence could we expect to find of extraterrestrial life, if it exists? At this point long-range detection is impossible. But we could expect that some of our more technologically advanced galactic neighbors would drop by and send autonomous probes to us, from time to time. And I would argue that’s exactly what appears to be happening, and fairly frequently at that.

It is not obvious at this point that the universe is teeming with life.
As I said previously, we should expect similar conditions to yield similar results. Instead of learning that the Earth is in some way miraculously unique in the cosmos, with each passing recent year we’ve learned that Earth-like worlds are common within our galaxy and the cosmos, and a great many of them reside within the habitable zones of their parent stars. We also know through modeling of planetary evolution and basic physics, that planets similar to our Earth will retain very similar concentrations of water and gases, and will go through very similar processes of formation and cooling. By all of the factors that we can currently detect and mathematically model, we can now reasonably expect all of the same processes that happened here, to happen upon billions of other very similar worlds in our galaxy alone.

So unless we find some factor which distinguishes the Earth from all of the other Earth-like planets around us, the scientific and conservative assumption to make is that life arises wherever the conditions are similar to our own. And that’s basically everywhere in the cosmos.

We do not know that earth like conditions are ubiquitous. We know planet's are ubiquitous. There is no evidence for a planet that is the size of earth, with liquid water and land, that receives about the same energy from its star at the planet's surface and has similar gasses in the atmosphere, has an orbiting moon to influence tides etc etc
You’re wrong. Astronomers have already detected hundreds of planets nearby, and they can now confidently estimate that approximately 22% of the stars in our galaxy are orbited by planets similar to the Earth within their “Goldilocks zones” where warm liquid water is prevalent. We also know that moons are very common. By all measures that we can detect and scientifically infer, our little Earth is a very commonplace kind of planet orbiting a fairly commonplace kind of star. So it’s very likely that life is also commonplace, and that many of these Earth-like worlds have already produced intelligent life. Until we have a scientific reason to believe otherwise, logic dictates that our planetary history is similar to that of billions of other worlds with similar conditions throughout our galaxy, and beyond.

We don't know how genesis occurred…maybe genesis is not a act of nature.
“Genesis?” I’m sorry, but this is a scientific topic, not a religious one. Astronomy, planetary science, biology and chemistry are sciences. Religion offers no substance of scientific significance.

Genesis on earth has only occurred once (as far as is known). If Genesis was an inevitability of earth like conditions we would expect to see it happening again, and again and again on earth. It hasn't.
What a bizarre and irrational argument. Life arose from organic chemical processes upon the Earth as soon as the planet cooled sufficiently to support complex organic molecules. And once it did, the organic material in our environment became food for the first simple organisms that quickly found adaptive niches all over the planet. The emergence of life can’t happen a second time because the biosphere consumes the building blocks of organic matter that are either left behind by dead organisms or which arise through dynamic chemical processes.

Fermi paradox. No seriously, where are they? SETI has been looking a long time.... nothing and side from radio signals there is nothing in the cosmos from all of our looking that does not look like natural occurances
Our own history with radio communication is already coming to a close after a mere century. And our best radio telescopes aren’t sensitive enough to pick up radio or television transmissions of similar strength to those we’ve broadcast, from even the nearest star system. So it’s irrational to expect that we would’ve picked up a transmission from another planet, unless that planet happened to send a high-energy signal to us on purpose. Which we haven’t done ourselves.

It would appear that our technologically advanced neighbors prefer to simply drop by to have a quick look around, rather than waiting decades to exchange radio signals with us. And apparently they don’t much care for what they find when they do pay us a visit, which I would argue is a testament to their intelligence.

If not the ETH, where on Earth do you think they could come from that seems more reasonable than theorizing they come from someplace else?
Precisely.

I have yet to hear a fully intelligible alternative explanation for the kinds of striking eyewitness sightings that I and countless others have experienced. And even if alternative hypotheses were to be clearly articulated, they seem to require one extraordinary leap of reasoning or another.

The ETH is bland by comparison. All it requires is the most basic rational assumptions: 1.) that intelligent life has happened elsewhere, and 2.) that it devised a way to get here. Both of which are readily defensible assumptions without a whiff of “woo.”

Still, the other day I listened to an interview of Richard Dolan and a guest who'd compiled a bunch of stats about UFO reports. The guest said that there was very little overlap between MUFON and Peter Davenport's reporting systems. If so, then make a rough guestimate of about 15,000 total yearly reports between the two of "something." Knock that down to a 5 percent figure and you still wind up with 750 reports a year of something likely to be actually anomalous, and that is 2 a day, just for North America. So to me the sheer volume seems to point to something more like an indigenous phenomenon, not actual interstellar visitation. But I don't necessarily discount that as a possibility.
Well, one of the problems here could be that a 5% number is arbitrary. Honestly it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if 99.99% of all “ufo reports” were insignificant misidentifications, delusional people, drug related, etc.

But perhaps we are a subject of active study/ monitoring/whatever. Impossible to say, really.

The idea of indigenous origin came up on The Paracast recently, and I can’t buy it for two reasons:

1.) As Randall rightly pointed out on the show, we’ve found no artifacts of previous civilization. One of the guests dismissed the point, but it’s a very valid one: archaeologists have combed the globe and found complete fossil records of evolving creatures (including our own fossil record) dating back hundreds of millions of years and more. Yet nary a shoe or a raincoat from a previous civilization so advanced that they built craft capable of outperforming our most advanced war planes and space vehicles. We can’t build craft like theirs, and we’ve got 7 billion people spanning the globe with industrialization strewn across every continent. How could they have done more without leaving a trace? And why would they hide from us in the first place? If they can leap from a levitating standstill to thousands of miles per hour in the blink of an eye without making a sound or any detectable emissions, they could easily dominate the planet and all of us on it. It makes no sense that they’d hand us the planet if they developed here first.

2.) Their craft exhibit all of the key characteristics of an interstellar-flight-capable device. So given the first point, it makes more sense to me that these craft arrived from someplace else, because they certainly could do so. Ergo, they probably have done so.

Then too, not long ago I came across an article about the orientation of the solar system in our Milky Way galaxy. The plane of our solar system is tilted about 60 degrees relative to the plane of the Milky Way. That means that of all the stars in this galaxy, only a very tiny number would ever see any of the solar system's planets cross the face of the sun, and that is one of the more prominent ways we determine if a star has planets. The point is, that for the billions of stars in the galaxy, our solar system would not easily register as a place with orbiting planets, and thus would not seem to be high on the "let's go visit" scale. There may be other ways to determine whether other solar systems have planets, but that is one of the ways we humans are using.
But we can already detect planets around nearby stars by the “wiggle” as stars orbit the barycenter induced by their planets, and that field of astronomy is accelerating dramatically. And we’re nowhere near capable of building interstellar spacecraft yet. Imagine the resolution and sophistication of our planetary detection capabilities in 100 years, or 1000 years. I would expect that before long we’ll be able to detect the reflected light from planets orbiting their host stars, and analyze the spectra of that light to find life signs and even industrial contaminants in the atmosphere. Naturally I assume that more advanced civilizations than ours are already employing these kinds of technological capabilities, and many more that we haven’t even dreamed of yet.
 
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Another good episode again this week. would love to hear David Paulides on at some point to discuss the 411 and get Corey Goode and David Wilcock and really grill them and break them down on air because they are coming out some outlandish stories right now.
 
This is where analytical reasoning comes in handy.

The state of scientific capability at this point is insufficient to detect life on exosolar planets. Therefore, the fact that we’ve haven’t detected life elsewhere in the cosmos is a meaningless, counterfactual argument. It would be an entirely different matter if science were capable of detecting life signs on exosolar planets, and we failed to detect it – that would mean something. At this point however, the absence of evidence means nothing.

The correct question to ask is this: given our current situation, what evidence could we expect to find of extraterrestrial life, if it exists? At this point long-range detection is impossible. But we could expect that some of our more technologically advanced galactic neighbors would drop by and send autonomous probes to us, from time to time. And I would argue that’s exactly what appears to be happening, and fairly frequently at that.


As I said previously, we should expect similar conditions to yield similar results. Instead of learning that the Earth is in some way miraculously unique in the cosmos, with each passing recent year we’ve learned that Earth-like worlds are common within our galaxy and the cosmos, and a great many of them reside within the habitable zones of their parent stars. We also know through modeling of planetary evolution and basic physics, that planets similar to our Earth will retain very similar concentrations of water and gases, and will go through very similar processes of formation and cooling. By all of the factors that we can currently detect and mathematically model, we can now reasonably expect all of the same processes that happened here, to happen upon billions of other very similar worlds in our galaxy alone.

So unless we find some factor which distinguishes the Earth from all of the other Earth-like planets around us, the scientific and conservative assumption to make is that life arises wherever the conditions are similar to our own. And that’s basically everywhere in the cosmos.


You’re wrong. Astronomers have already detected hundreds of planets nearby, and they can now confidently estimate that approximately 22% of the stars in our galaxy are orbited by planets similar to the Earth within their “Goldilocks zones” where warm liquid water is prevalent. We also know that moons are very common. By all measures that we can detect and scientifically infer, our little Earth is a very commonplace kind of planet orbiting a fairly commonplace kind of star. So it’s very likely that life is also commonplace, and that many of these Earth-like worlds have already produced intelligent life. Until we have a scientific reason to believe otherwise, logic dictates that our planetary history is similar to that of billions of other worlds with similar conditions throughout our galaxy, and beyond.


“Genesis?” I’m sorry, but this is a scientific topic, not a religious one. Astronomy, planetary science, biology and chemistry are sciences. Religion offers no substance of scientific significance.


What a bizarre and irrational argument. Life arose from organic chemical processes upon the Earth as soon as the planet cooled sufficiently to support complex organic molecules. And once it did, the organic material in our environment became food for the first simple organisms that quickly found adaptive niches all over the planet. The emergence of life can’t happen a second time because the biosphere consumes the building blocks of organic matter that are either left behind by dead organisms or which arise through dynamic chemical processes.


Our own history with radio communication is already coming to a close after a mere century. And our best radio telescopes aren’t sensitive enough to pick up radio or television transmissions of similar strength to those we’ve broadcast, from even the nearest star system. So it’s irrational to expect that we would’ve picked up a transmission from another planet, unless that planet happened to send a high-energy signal to us on purpose. Which we haven’t done ourselves.

It would appear that our technologically advanced neighbors prefer to simply drop by to have a quick look around, rather than waiting decades to exchange radio signals with us. And apparently they don’t much care for what they find when they do pay us a visit, which I would argue is a testament to their intelligence.


Precisely.

I have yet to hear a fully intelligible alternative explanation for the kinds of striking eyewitness sightings that I and countless others have experienced. And even if alternative hypotheses were to be clearly articulated, they seem to require one extraordinary leap of reasoning or another.

The ETH is bland by comparison. All it requires is the most basic rational assumptions: 1.) that intelligent life has happened elsewhere, and 2.) that it devised a way to get here. Both of which are readily defensible assumptions without a whiff of “woo.”


Well, one of the problems here could be that a 5% number is arbitrary. Honestly it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if 99.99% of all “ufo reports” were insignificant misidentifications, delusional people, drug related, etc.

But perhaps we are a subject of active study/ monitoring/whatever. Impossible to say, really.

The idea of indigenous origin came up on The Paracast recently, and I can’t buy it for two reasons:

1.) As Randall rightly pointed out on the show, we’ve found no artifacts of previous civilization. One of the guests dismissed the point, but it’s a very valid one: archaeologists have combed the globe and found complete fossil records of evolving creatures (including our own fossil record) dating back hundreds of millions of years and more. Yet nary a shoe or a raincoat from a previous civilization so advanced that they built craft capable of outperforming our most advanced war planes and space vehicles. We can’t build craft like theirs, and we’ve got 7 billion people spanning the globe with industrialization strewn across every continent. How could they have done more without leaving a trace? And why would they hide from us in the first place? If they can leap from a levitating standstill to thousands of miles per hour in the blink of an eye without making a sound or any detectable emissions, they could easily dominate the planet and all of us on it. It makes no sense that they’d hand us the planet if they developed here first.

2.) Their craft exhibit all of the key characteristics of an interstellar-flight-capable device. So given the first point, it makes more sense to me that these craft arrived from someplace else, because they certainly could do so. Ergo, they probably have done so.


But we can already detect planets around nearby stars by the “wiggle” as stars orbit the barycenter induced by their planets, and that field of astronomy is accelerating dramatically. And we’re nowhere near capable of building interstellar spacecraft yet. Imagine the resolution and sophistication of our planetary detection capabilities in 100 years, or 1000 years. I would expect that before long we’ll be able to detect the reflected light from planets orbiting their host stars, and analyze the spectra of that light to find life signs and even industrial contaminants in the atmosphere. Naturally I assume that more advanced civilizations than ours are already employing these kinds of technological capabilities, and many more that we haven’t even dreamed of yet.


Dude, this is full of errors. I'm sorry to say. It was also too long for me to read all of it but here are a couple of things I found;

"The state of scientific capability at this point is insufficient to detect life on exosolar planets" this depends on what life you want to detect. If you are looking for evidence of civilisations, we have radio telescopes and these things have found nothing. If you are talking about common biology and not intelligent life and civilisations it's a meaningless point because they cannot build ships to fly to earth to zoom around.

"the absence of evidence means nothing." No, the absence of evidence means everything when you want to consider something as part of your empirical reality. I have no evidence of fairies in my garden therefore I tend not to believe they are building space ships and zooming around the sky in them

"we could expect that some of our more technologically advanced galactic neighbors would drop by and send autonomous probes to us, from time to time." Why could we? This is a mountain of assumptions such as, we have galactic neighbours, they are explorers, they want machines to do their exploring, they want to come into our atmosphere (vs. Orbiting and looking down or viewing from afar). Your basically overlaying the human paradigm onto an imaginary space alien species we have no evidence for

I accept that speculation is fun but you have to make sure your basis of these speculations is rock solid and where it has limits and unknowns we should call them out
 
If not the ETH, where on Earth do you think they could come from that seems more reasonable than theorizing they come from someplace else?

My current theory is that "they" are actually a mix of military tests of aircraft, military tests of other unknown tech, military disinformation, general misidentification of conventional flying objects or natural phenomena and hoaxes.

Once the notion of extra terrestrial visitation gets plugged into the collective human consciousness it's applied as a possible explanation for unknown events but its never come up with the goods to pass scientific muster. Scientific being pier reviewed work and becoming accepted scientific understanding of our empirical reality.

From there we can speculate that aliens could be the cause but its as credible as fairies or Bigfoot. There is no evidence for life in the universe except for Earth and the size of the universe or abundance of planet's is not evidence.

In addition all the things on my UFO causing list are things that have proven to be causes of UFO cases, therefore they have one foot in the door of precident, which is more than the ETH has.

The ETH comes down to pure speculation at best and highly unlikely at worst given it's its lack of supporting evidence
 
this depends on what life you want to detect. If you are looking for evidence of civilisations, we have radio telescopes and these things have found nothing.
I already explained this in the post you didn’t read. Our radio telescopes couldn’t pick up the transmissions from another Earth-like civilization located only 4 light-years away. If they’re out there, we just don’t have the radio telescope sensitivity to detect a transmitting civilization in our own stellar neighborhood. But even if we could detect Earth-like radio transmissions at many light-years of distance, since that era only lasted about 100 years here on Earth, the chances of a nearby civilization going through that narrow era of technological development while we happen to be looking for it, is nearly zero anyway.

the absence of evidence means everything when you want to consider something as part of your empirical reality.
You’re mistaking “absence of evidence” for “evidence of absence.” We don’t have any evidence either way, because we're currently incapable of gathering it. But we have an abundance of reasons to believe that life, and even intelligent life, is fairly common. Because it happened here, and we have no evidence that Earth is special in any way. Therefore, life (and even intelligent life) is likely to happen wherever conditions are similar to conditions here. Which is basically everywhere in the universe.

Why could we? This is a mountain of assumptions such as, we have galactic neighbours, they are explorers, they want machines to do their exploring, they want to come into our atmosphere (vs. Orbiting and looking down or viewing from afar). Your basically overlaying the human paradigm onto an imaginary space alien species we have no evidence for

I accept that speculation is fun but you have to make sure your basis of these speculations is rock solid and where it has limits and unknowns we should call them out
The basis of my speculation here is very simple: we’re not special. I know that’s difficult for many people to accept, because we’d all like to believe that we’re very special little snowflakes. But the Milky Way is a very ordinary type of galaxy, the Sun is a rather bland type of star, the Earth is a very ordinary type of planet (all of that’s proven beyond doubt now), and chances are that we’re a very commonplace form of life. So it's perfectly reasonable to assume that it's fairly commonplace for intelligent species to rise to the top of their global food chains, and build stuff, and act on their curiosity about the cosmos by exploring and sending probes, just as we have. The difference between us is that I think we're very ordinary, and you seem to think that we're miraculously special. But at every turn, the more we've learned about the universe, the more we've discovered that our place within it is all very ordinary.

My current theory is that "they" are actually a mix of military tests of aircraft, military tests of other unknown tech, military disinformation, general misidentification of conventional flying objects or natural phenomena and hoaxes.
Of course there's a bunch of crap/misidentifications/disinformation/hoaxes/etc in the mix - in fact that's most of the stuff we hear about - that goes without saying. But that's not the stuff that matters. Very credible witnesses have been seeing exotic solid aerial craft levitating silently and performing mind-boggling maneuvers in complete defiance of inertia and gravity for over 60 years, and yet we little people here in the public sector have yet to see any of our most advanced military vehicles exhibit anything remotely resembling these kinds of capabilities. So no, I don’t think that our military has had exquisitely refined gravitational field propulsion technology (which is the only really viable physics explanation for the reported performance characteristics of these devices) since the 1950s. I would *love* to believe that we could build devices like that, and maybe we can these days in top secret military research programs, but in the 50s? No way.

Anyway, that's all. You're clearly stuck on the logical fallacy of mistaking an absence of evidence (which we're incapable of gathering at this point in our science), with evidence of absence. And until you can figure that part out, this is a pointless debate.
 
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My current theory is that "they" are actually a mix of military tests of aircraft, military tests of other unknown tech, military disinformation, general misidentification of conventional flying objects or natural phenomena and hoaxes.
OK. So "unknown" to you still means some sort of unknown aircraft manufactured here on Earth in some known nation?
 
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I already explained this in the post you didn’t read. Our radio telescopes couldn’t pick up the transmissions from another Earth-like civilization located only 4 light-years away

Interesting. Just wondering about your source on that? I did find this: Broadcasting a Message | SETI Institute

Also, could you post a link to your own sighing please?

BTW: An excellent point-counterpoint discussion between you an @Greers Meeting Planner ! There's some mild innuendo but all well within bounds ( IMO ) and it's nice to see it kept civil. Kudos to you both. That's the sort of discussions we need :cool:.
 
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Interesting. Just wondering about your source on that?
Here you go:

"If an extraterrestrial civilization has a SETI project similar to our own, could they detect signals from Earth?

In general, no. Most earthly transmissions are too weak to be found by equipment similar to ours at the distance of even the nearest star."
FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions) | SETI Institute

"The only kind of transmission that we have much hope of detecting is a "beacon" — a very strong signal that aliens somewhere have deliberately designed to announce "Here we are!" as clearly and loudly as possible to any listeners in the cosmos, such as us. The searches now under way are much too weak to pick up any plausible radio chatter from another civilization's internal traffic — its own broadcasts and point-to-point communications — no matter how advanced the civilization may be. (Indeed, there's every reason to think that internal communications will become less recognizable from a distance as a civilization advances, judging from trends in our own communications technology.)"
SETI Searches Today - Sky & Telescope

"In fact, if aliens have radio telescopes similar to what we have on Earth, our television and radio broadcasts would only be detectable up to 0.3 light-years away. That distance doesn't even transcend the farthest reaches of our solar system."
12 Possible Reasons We Haven't Found Aliens

"So here's the bottom line: LOFAR [an Arecibo-equivalent radio telescope] would only be able to find TV signals comparable to ours from a distance of much less than one light-year! Turning this around, the mother of all rabbit ears couldn't pick up the Alien Broadcasting Network at the distance of even the nearest star."
Listening for ET’s Television

Also, could you post a link to your own sighting please?
Odd, apparently I've never posted about it. Here's what happened:

When I was seven years old I witnessed a pair of bright lights in the sky during a clear and calm summer afternoon with five of the other kids in my neighborhood, which executed a precise linear zig-zagging trajectory in perfect formation at extremely high speeds (estimated at >2000mph using basic trigonometry), with no indication of slowing or curving even at the vertex of acute vector changes of 30-40-degree angles. It was like watching brightly glowing (or perhaps just highly reflective in the sunlight) ping-ping balls bouncing off of invisible walls in the sky, except they moved in straight lines the entire time. We all watched as some of us went through the list trying to identify what we were seeing; “Airplanes?” “Helicopters?” “Rockets?” Each guess was openly rejected, one after the other, “No…(planes/helicopters/rockets) can’t do that.” After we ran out of explanations we just stared in silence. As soon as we lost sight of these bright spots in the sky when they flew in front of the Sun, after less than a minute of watching them move in that inexplicable manner, I ran home to grab my family’s cheap plastic camera to take pictures, but it was empty of film, and they were gone anyway.

It probably doesn't sound like much, but that brief event changed the direction of my life dramatically, and I still remember it like it happened yesterday. I've been working hard to understand the physical mechanism that made those maneuvers possible ever since.

BTW: An excellent point-counterpoint discussion between you an @Greers Meeting Planner ! There's some mild innuendo but all well within bounds ( IMO ) and it's nice to see it kept civil. Kudos to you both. That's the sort of discussions we need :cool:.
That's good to hear - I guess that last one didn't sound as snarky as it felt :D
 
... It probably doesn't sound like much, but that brief event changed the direction of my life dramatically, and I still remember it like it happened yesterday. I've been working hard to understand the physical mechanism that made those maneuvers possible ever since. That's good to hear - I guess that last one didn't sound as snarky as it felt :D

Thanks for sharing your sighting! Forgive me for asking for specifics, but what references were there that could make distances and speed determinable by trigonometry? And could you determine if light coming off the objects was emitted or reflected? You must have made the calculations later in life ( when you learned the math ). Did you make the calculations based on memory recall or notes?
 
OK. So "unknown" to you still means some sort of unknown aircraft manufactured here on Earth in some known nation?

Yes. A good example would be the picture Nick Pope had on the wall when he was at the MoD of the unknown diamond shaped object photographed hovering in Scotland (turned out to be a U.S. military aircraft that is still unknown to the public 30 years later (admittedly we only have popes anecdote to back that claim)). This object was considered a genuine unknown to obviously highly credentialed people at the MOD and even with the analytical resources at their disposal they didn't determine it was a U.S. vehicle.

There is already a known group of people with the resources and motive to build aircraft that have flying or technical capabilities beyond the current capability and they are the air forces of the world. They are known to exist and to be consistently at this endeavour.

This is a big advantage vs. Aliens / inside earth / other universe civilisations which are purely speculative at this point in time and have zero supporting evidence despite existing sciences looking at inner earth or outer space, they have found nothing
 
Thanks for sharing your sighting! Forgive me for asking for specifics, but what references were there that could make distances and speed determinable by trigonometry?
It's fun to share my experience with someone; I don't talk it about it often, but it was the most amazing thing I've ever seen.

I often hear this criticism about judging distances - people seem to have this idea that you can't estimate the distance to an object in the sky. Granted, it's impossible to get a precise number, but we have binocular vision, so it's pretty easy to gauge a minimum distance to an object in the sky. Perhaps it's a little easier for people who grow up in a mountainous region as I did, because you get used to gauging distances as you look down from an elevated position, and even at that age I'd already ventured all over that region and had a good sense of distances from walking them all the time.

In this case it was clear that the objects were at least as far away (horizontally) as the next town over (about 2 miles) and elevated at a 45-degree angle, roughly, which gives a minimum distance of 2.83 miles. Estimating the angular distance that the objects traveled in one segment of their zig-zag maneuvers at arm's length (.24 radians), here's how the math works out:

Radius (eye to hand) = 31”

Distance traversed at arm’s length = 7.5”

Angular travel = 7.5/31 = .24 radians

Distance to objects (minimum) = 2.83 miles

.24 rad at 2.83mi = .6792 miles, in approx .25 sec = 2.7168 miles/sec

2.716 miles/sec x 3600 sec/hr = 9780 miles/hr

That's my best estimate for their velocity, but frankly I low-balled the distance to the objects to arrive at a conservative estimate. I also estimated the travel time on the high side for the same reason. And then just to be safe, in case my recollection is more dramatic than the actual incident, I typically divide by a factor of four or five to convey a minimum velocity at a high confidence level. That's how I came up with the minimum estimate of 2000mph. But I've been replaying the incident in my mind ever since it happened, which is the best way to retain a clear recollection, so in my private thoughts I'm pretty confident that these things were moving around 8-10,000mph, with no visible emissions.

But that's not the most startling factor: the perfectly synced and apparently instantaneous jackknife trajectories at 30-40-degree angles with no visible change in speed - that's the truly astonishing aspect of my sighting. The g-forces of such maneuvers with any conventional aircraft would've been similar to that of a bullet ricocheting off of a steel block: no terrestrial technology could survive it. That's why I've concluded that these objects employed a gravitational field propulsion system - with that method of propulsion there are no g-forces because all of the matter within the acceleration field would be uniformly accelerated. From their reference frame, these devices would feel nothing as they underwent those rapid trajectory changes at high speed; it would feel like standing still. And it just so happens that a gravitational field propulsion system is the only theoretically viable method for exceeding the speed of light by an arbitrary magnitude - it's the ideal solution for interstellar spaceflight. So theoretically, the objects I witnessed could've traveled here from a nearby star system in a matter of hours, maybe even less. The only limitation is the gradient of the gravitational field that they can produce, and that's a purely technical/engineering consideration.

And could you determine if light coming off the objects was emitted or reflected? You must have made the calculations later in life ( when you learned the math ). Did you make the calculations based on memory recall or notes?
At the time, they appeared to be glowing quite brightly. But in retrospect, I realized that given that it was a sunny cloudless afternoon, they might've just had a mirror-like surface - they appeared to glow about as brightly as the Sun. Like I said, even at the age of seven I realized that this was the most important thing I'd ever witnessed, so I remember it like it was yesterday, which is why I'm quite confident in my estimates. But we know that memory is very fallible, so I reduce my numbers down by a factor of 4 or 5 when I talk about it, just to be safe. But even at 2000mph, no earthly technology can execute hairpin maneuvers like that without being crushed by the g-forces, so I'm very confident that what I saw remains genuinely unknown to conventional terrestrial science.
 
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Yes. A good example would be the picture Nick Pope had on the wall when he was at the MoD of the unknown diamond shaped object photographed hovering in Scotland (turned out to be a U.S. military aircraft that is still unknown to the public 30 years later (admittedly we only have popes anecdote to back that claim)). This object was considered a genuine unknown to obviously highly credentialed people at the MOD and even with the analytical resources at their disposal they didn't determine it was a U.S. vehicle.

There is already a known group of people with the resources and motive to build aircraft that have flying or technical capabilities beyond the current capability and they are the air forces of the world. They are known to exist and to be consistently at this endeavour.

This is a big advantage vs. Aliens / inside earth / other universe civilisations which are purely speculative at this point in time and have zero supporting evidence despite existing sciences looking at inner earth or outer space, they have found nothing

Here are a couple of problems I have with the above: Ruppelt, A one time head of Project Blue Book had a degree in aeronautical engineering and a Top Secret clearance that allowed him to determine whether or not any of the sightings could reasonably be explained by secret USAF projects. In more than one case the Skyhook balloon program was responsible for UFO reports, so there's an example of how civilians could mistake a secret piece of technology for a UFO, but not USAF investigators, so when a daylight disk was tracked on radar and subsequently spotted visually by an F-86 pilot, who gave chase only to be out run by the disk that went supersonic, he wasn't able to explain it.

For that matter there's no evidence that any aircraft manufacturer has been able to construct a flying disk that can fly well at all, let alone outrun an F-86 in 1952. At that time there weren't even many supersonic conventional aircraft. Some 65 years later there's still no evidence any supersonic disk shaped craft were ever successfully built, or even could be built. On top of that, the investigators at Project Sign were also engineers and experts in military hardware, and they're the ones who concluded that the craft were probably ET.

So essentially, I'm not sure why I should give your opinion more weight than that of actual aeronautical engineers with Top Secret clearance in the USAF who were investigating the reports by USAF at the time they were happening.
 
It's fun to share my experience with someone; I don't talk it about it often, but it was the most amazing thing I've ever seen.

I often hear this criticism about judging distances - people seem to have this idea that you can't estimate the distance to an object in the sky. Granted, it's impossible to get a precise number, but we have binocular vision, so it's pretty easy to gauge a minimum distance to an object in the sky.
OK I'm going to play skeptic here a bit, so try to bear with me.
Estimates vary but stereoscopic vision in humans is only accurate within about 200m.

Perhaps it's a little easier for people who grow up in a mountainous region as I did, because you get used to gauging distances as you look down from an elevated position, and even at that age I'd already ventured all over that region and had a good sense of distances from walking them all the time.
I grew up in the mountains too, and witnessed the 1972 Great Daylight Fireball. It looked like it was much closer than it actually was.
In this case it was clear that the objects were at least as far away (horizontally) as the next town over (about 2 miles) and elevated at a 45-degree angle, roughly, which gives a minimum distance of 2.83 miles.
So maybe they were over the next town? Did you ask if anyone over there had seen them? Is the area a UFO hotspot?
Estimating the angular distance that the objects traveled in one segment of their zig-zag maneuvers at arm's length (.24 radians), here's how the math works out:
Radius (eye to hand) = 31”
That's a rather long reach for a 7 year old. Mine is only about 30" and I'm fully grown and around 5'11.
Distance traversed at arm’s length = 7.5”
That's a small visual distance. Just using only one eye or the other can cause a visual shift of position of that much. I assume you were you standing perfectly still outdoor at the time and not in a vehicle?
Angular travel = 7.5/31 = .24 radians
Distance to objects (minimum) = 2.83 miles
.24 rad at 2.83mi = .6792 miles, in approx .25 sec = 2.7168 miles/sec
2.716 miles/sec x 3600 sec/hr = 9780 miles/hr

That's my best estimate for their velocity, but frankly I low-balled the distance to the objects to arrive at a conservative estimate. I also estimated the travel time on the high side for the same reason. And then just to be safe, in case my recollection is more dramatic than the actual incident, I typically divide by a factor of four or five to convey a minimum velocity at a high confidence level. That's how I came up with the minimum estimate of 2000mph. But I've been replaying the incident in my mind ever since it happened, which is the best way to retain a clear recollection, so in my private thoughts I'm pretty confident that these things were moving around 8-10,000mph, with no visible emissions.

But that's not the most startling factor: the perfectly synced and apparently instantaneous jackknife trajectories at 30-40-degree angles with no visible change in speed - that's the truly astonishing aspect of my sighting. The g-forces of such maneuvers with any conventional aircraft would've been similar to that of a bullet ricocheting off of a steel block: no terrestrial technology could survive it. That's why I've concluded that these objects employed a gravitational field propulsion system - with that method of propulsion there are no g-forces because all of the matter within the acceleration field would be uniformly accelerated. From their reference frame, these devices would feel nothing as they underwent those rapid trajectory changes at high speed; it would feel like standing still. And it just so happens that a gravitational field propulsion system is the only theoretically viable method for exceeding the speed of light by an arbitrary magnitude - it's the ideal solution for interstellar spaceflight. So theoretically, the objects I witnessed could've traveled here from a nearby star system in a matter of hours, maybe even less. The only limitation is the gradient of the gravitational field that they can produce, and that's a purely technical/engineering consideration.
Well, there's a couple of minor issues but no matter how you look at it, unless your estimate of the distance was off by miles and your estimate of the time by seconds, neither of which seem likely, the range of the velocity is still outside any normal sort of aircraft, as well as the maneuvers.
At the time, they appeared to be glowing quite brightly. But in retrospect, I realized that given that it was a sunny cloudless afternoon, they might've just had a mirror-like surface - they appeared to glow about as brightly as the Sun. Like I said, even at the age of seven I realized that this was the most important thing I'd ever witnessed, so I remember it like it was yesterday, which is why I'm quite confident in my estimates. But we know that memory is very fallible, so I reduce my numbers down by a factor of 4 or 5 when I talk about it, just to be safe. But even at 2000mph, no earthly technology can execute hairpin maneuvers like that without being crushed by the g-forces, so I'm very confident that what I saw remains genuinely unknown to conventional terrestrial science.
I think that sightings by young people are all too often dismissed as vivid imaginations. Do you think any of the kids you were with would still remember it? Have you had any other odd experiences?
 
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So essentially, I'm not sure why I should give your opinion more weight than that of actual aeronautical engineers with Top Secret clearance in the USAF who were investigating the reports by USAF at the time they were happening.

Well I'm not asking you to lol.

The burden of proof should be on the claimant. I'm not saying alien ships exist therefore I'm not asking anyone to give my opinion weight, I'm looking for someone to add weight to the claim aliens in ships are visiting us.

The case you mention is only available to us in the form of an anecdote, no camera footage and a radar trace would not confirm it's a disk it would just confirm a radar reflective surface so it's impossible to discuss in any way that can move this topic forward.

What if it wasn't a disc it was just circular from the perspective of the observer? What if his story was embellished from what actually happened? These questions and more remain outstanding when anecdotes are the supporting body of evidence.

You also assume the blue book investigators were given access to every top secret programme to reference it against which may or may not be true. I would be skeptical given the compartmentalised nature of security to give this person access to all these programs seems a stretch but admittedly I'm speculating.
 
Well I'm not asking you to lol. The burden of proof should be on the claimant.
We're not making specific claims like "UFOs are ET", or "None of the objects in UFO reports are ET". We're discussing which theory in a casual sense is more reasonable than another. So it's up to each participant who holds a particular theory to add weight to their position.
I'm not saying alien ships exist therefore I'm not asking anyone to give my opinion weight, I'm looking for someone to add weight to the claim aliens in ships are visiting us.
Again, no claim of that nature has been made in our discussion by either of us. However you have stated your opinion as, to quote: "My current theory is that "they" are actually a mix of ... etc". Therefore like it or not, not all theories ( or opinions ) are of equal weight simply because they have yet to be proven one way or another. There's a heiarchy of reasonableness based on the available evidence and critical thinking. You've provided points. I've provided counterpoints. You provide more back. That's how this type of discussion works. The "burden of proof" loophole doesn't apply here. The alternative is simply to abandon the discussion, in which case why bother posting anything at all?
The case you mention is only available to us in the form of an anecdote, no camera footage and a radar trace would not confirm it's a disk it would just confirm a radar reflective surface so it's impossible to discuss in any way that can move this topic forward.
It's true that in the case I cited, we could simply dismiss it as a fabrication by Ruppelt. However it doesn't seem entirely reasonable to do that because Ruppelt wasn't a sensationalist and unlike some ex-military people who have followed, there doesn't appear to be any blatant fabrications in his book, which is essentially a rather dry read, much of which has been substantiated by the release of formerly Top Secret documents. ( See the Bluebook Archive )
What if it wasn't a disc it was just circular from the perspective of the observer? What if his story was embellished from what actually happened?
According to Ruppelt, the report indicated that the pilot came upon the object during daylight from above and gave chase, which gave him an optical view from multiple angles. As for the embellishment part, again, Ruppelt's book hardly reads like a Tom Clancy novel. He simply relays the essentials of the report he was shown by an Air Force intelligence officer. I see no good reason to arbitrarily class it as a fabrication.
These questions and more remain outstanding when anecdotes are the supporting body of evidence.
I tend to agree with that, and in the case of many sightings reported by civilians, there's a better case to be made for doubt on those grounds, but with Blue Book we're dealing with military protocols, so it seems less likely that Ruppelt would be given faked reports unless there were orders from someplace to do so, and no such orders have ever surfaced.
You also assume the blue book investigators were given access to every top secret programme to reference it against which may or may not be true. I would be skeptical given the compartmentalised nature of security to give this person access to all these programs seems a stretch but admittedly I'm speculating.
Although it's fair to say I've made an inference about Ruppelt's range of investigation, I don't actually make the assumption you suggest, and I think your point is valid. However it also seems reasonable to believe Ruppelt did have a Top Secret clearance that allowed him to determine whether or not other secret projects might explain a case, even if he wasn't given all the details about such programs. He also had a "need to know" because he was tasked with finding out if any such programs could explain UFO reports, and as mentioned previously, he did find some such explanations, so we know he was making an effort to consider secret projects as possible explanations.

So it's not so easy to dismiss USAF reports from the Golden Age in ufology as it is many others, and we're also still left with an engineering problem that appears to be unsolved to this day. Our only recourse for the good cases that exceed our ability to explain them as manmade is to assume they're either fabrications or they aren't. Taking into account that in the minds of the USAF investigators at the time, good reports weren't considered to be fabrications, it doesn't seem reasonable ( to me ) to assume all such reports are fabrications, so that leaves us with a residual number of reports of something alien. That still doesn't necessitate ET, but then we can start weighing out the pros and cons of the possibilities there as well.
 
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Estimates vary but stereoscopic vision in humans is only accurate within about 200m.
I grew up in the mountains too, and witnessed the 1972 Great Daylight Fireball. It looked like it was much closer than it actually was.
That must’ve been an amazing experience. One night in late 1994 I went for a walk in Pasadena – the first walk I’d taken in years (because it’s true, nobody walks in L.A., haha) – and a meteor the size of a school bus lit up the night sky like broad daylight as it flamed out brilliantly and dramatically streaking across the sky, dripping chunks of fire as it burned and disintegrated. The power of it felt like an omen. And it turned out to be one for me, actually – but that’s a whole other story.

The craft I saw could’ve easily been 2X as far away or more, but they definitely weren’t any closer than my estimate. Like I said, I estimate the distance at the shortest possible range to arrive at a conservative estimate of their speed – you can tell when something’s in the local vicinity, and these clearly weren’t. I wish that I had seen them closer, to get a better sense of their scale and shape etc., but what my sighting lacked in clarity it more than made up for in astonishing maneuvering. To this day, I’m partial to reports that involve these kinds of instantaneous accelerations, because no known natural phenomenon or technology can move like that.

So maybe they were over the next town? Did you ask if anyone over there had seen them? Is the area a UFO hotspot?
One town over, at a minimum. I didn’t know anyone in that area at the time, so I wouldn’t have known who to ask (and the odds of looking up during that narrow, less than 1-minute window of time, would be astronomically minuscule anyway. And as far as I know SW Pennsylvania isn’t a hot spot, but some interesting cases have happened in that area (like most areas, I presume).

That's a rather long reach for a 7 year old. Mine is only about 30" and I'm fully grown and around 5'11.
I’m estimating the angular velocity of my recollection at my current size; I’m 6’2” now. If I’d estimated the numbers using my seven-year-old body at the time of the sighting, the results would’ve been roughly the same.

That's a small visual distance. Just using only one eye or the other can cause a visual shift of position of that much. I assume you were you standing perfectly still outdoor at the time and not in a vehicle?
That was only one typical segment length before they suddenly changed direction, nearly doubling back on their trajectory. Over the course of the whole incident they probably covered more than 1.5 radians. We were all standing still…riveted by the sight of these things. I couldn’t take my eyes off of them even when we were speaking – I was afraid to look away, frankly. It was sort of like trying to follow the flight of a gnat. It was astonishing to see something move like that in the sky. I’d always loved aircraft and technology, and even by the age of seven you’re used to seeing planes and rockets and helicopters and even shooting stars…it’s startling to see something in the sky that’s truly novel and unclassifiable.

Frankly I can’t think of any reason that a pair of craft would move in that fashion, other than to provide an aerial demonstration of their capabilities. So that’s how I’ve chosen to interpret it – as an aerial demonstration that basically says “look at this – this is possible, now figure out how to do it.” And this strikes me as a very elegant and efficient way to convey this knowledge, and the inspiration to pursue it.

Well, there's a couple of minor issues
Like what?

but no matter how you look at it, unless your estimate of the distance was off by miles and your estimate of the time by seconds, neither of which seem likely, the range of the velocity is still outside any normal sort of aircraft, as well as the maneuvers.
Yep. I’ve whittled the numbers down as far as possible, and the most conservative estimates are still totally inexplicable – but that zig-zagging motion is the clincher: I’ve never seen anything remotely like it, before or since. It makes our most sophisticated aircraft look like crude and lumbering dirigibles. And to see two objects perform those maneuvers in perfect formation, among a group of witnesses…well, let’s just say that I soon found myself digging through the ufo/paranormal books at the local library, and then my high school library, and finally the physics and engineering library at USC, looking for any hint of a physical explanation. But unfortunately, the first hint didn’t appear in the academic literature until Alcubierre’s paper in 1994. Before that, all of the physics books said that what I saw that day was impossible.

In fact, I didn’t find a rational explanation for what I’d seen until I stumbled across the books of Daniel Fry, the alleged contactee. His description of gravitational field propulsion, written back in the 1950s. 60s, and early 70s, perfectly matched my observations. Soon after, Alcubierre’s seminal warp field paper formally validated his descriptions and expressed them in the mathematics of general relativity. The correlation between them still spins my melon; it’s like the guy had a crystal ball into the future of theoretical physics.

I think that sightings by young people are all too often dismissed as vivid imaginations.
Yeah I figure that a lot of people write off my account because of my age at the time. But I was a smart kid with an early facility for the sciences. I knew that what I’d seen defied conventional explanations, and I was determined to figure it out. I still am – I won’t rest until I can understand how to explicitly replicate what I saw that day, at least in principle, on paper. It can be done, I know that. And I want to understand it before I die, because that capability would radically transform human civilization. Which is precisely what we need, now more than ever.

Do you think any of the kids you were with would still remember it?
I was never close with the other kids in the neighborhood, but about ten years later I did ask one of the kids who was there that day if he remembered it. He’d completely forgotten about it, which I found to be inconceivable and very disappointing.

A similar disappointment befell me recently, when I asked a friend if she remembered seeing a diffuse vertical column of luminous green light reaching from the pool that we were standing in one night in Burbank, up into the sky for hundreds of yards, gently twisting in place, about 22 years ago. We both saw it and talked about it that night as we observed it, and we were completely baffled by it (thanks to William Strathmann, I recently shared my account of this event with a brilliant geologist who offered a sensible explanation attributing it to a form of earthquake light). She’d completely forgotten about it.

Apparently there are two kinds of people: those of us who treasure life’s very rare anomalous experiences and obsess on figuring them out over years of constant contemplation, and those who aren’t particularly moved by the things that can’t be readily explained and exploited for some practical benefit – such people forget about the anomalous experiences they have because the memory of these events doesn’t keep circling back around through their consciousness for years on end.

Have you had any other odd experiences?
Nothing of that nature, sadly, but most definitely yes, and I treasure every one of them…even the dark ones. But they’re my little pearls, and all very deeply personal and precious to me, so I refrain from discussing them publicly. It’s a terrible thing when something precious to you is wielded as a weapon by small minds. I will say this though – I have a strong innate tendency to be a ruthlessly skeptical and cynical, reductionist type of thinker, and I’m certain that my sighting experience opened my mind to concepts and experiences that I may never have considered, otherwise. It changed me deeply and fundamentally. And for that I am profoundly and sincerely grateful.

One last comment. Lately Gene and Chris have been pushing the idea of focusing sightings investigations on the witnesses. This strikes me as a very worrisome idea. The moment that the witness feels like the investigation is about them, personally, they’re going to become very uncomfortable, suspicious, and resentful. Because I can’t imagine any way to interrogate a witness about their apparently unrelated personal lives before and after their incidents, that won’t make them feel like you’re trying to dismiss their experience as some kind of psychological dysfunction. And that’s when witnesses will stop reporting their experiences. Here’s a better idea: if you want to look for correlations beyond the sightings themselves, have the investigator keep track of *their* personal lives before, during, and after their investigations. Because if you find correlations there, then that’s really interesting. And it won’t alienate the witnesses in the process.
 
Like what?
Just the ones mentioned on estimating distances, but as you say, you're already aware of the issues and have taken them into account, so they don't change the basic features of the sighting. The way it's described, for it to have been a misperception of a natural phenomenon would have required it to be something like birds or insects which would have required them to be close enough to discern that they were in fact birds or insects. Therefore it seems that given the speeds and behavior, only some sort of craft could pull that off, but nothing we've got, so there we are back to having to conclude something alien as a reasonable possibility.

One last comment. Lately Gene and Chris have been pushing the idea of focusing sightings investigations on the witnesses. This strikes me as a very worrisome idea. The moment that the witness feels like the investigation is about them, personally, they’re going to become very uncomfortable, suspicious, and resentful. Because I can’t imagine any way to interrogate a witness about their apparently unrelated personal lives before and after their incidents, that won’t make them feel like you’re trying to dismiss their experience as some kind of psychological dysfunction. And that’s when witnesses will stop reporting their experiences. Here’s a better idea: if you want to look for correlations beyond the sightings themselves, have the investigator keep track of *their* personal lives before, during, and after their investigations. Because if you find correlations there, then that’s really interesting. And it won’t alienate the witnesses in the process.

Interesting point and a valid concern. I tend to resonate with the idea a bit differently perhaps than gene and what you're suggesting. I'm not sure if you picked-up on it, but my view is that humans are the primary perceivers of the phenomena and therefore represent the evidence, and that means they shouldn't be arbitrarily dismissed as many skeptics suggest. Human perception and memory is much better than they will admit, and at the same time, it's not as if technological memory and instrumentation never fails. So there's a valid argument that the witness is indeed important, and if there are multiple experiences, they may even be more important as it suggests a pattern of study.
 
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Hey Gene,
On the show you said there was a remote viewing experiment that Daz Smith 'passed.' I listened to the April 26, 2009 episode but didn't hear about said experiment. Did I miss something? Or is it described somewhere on the forum and, if so, where?
Thank you
Lou Sheehan
 
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