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June 20th episode - Stan Friedman & Kathleen Marden

A civilisation which had only learned how to do interstellar travel the hard, slow way would in all likelihood still be bound by the economics of scarcity, and so might well be highly motivated to take what they didn't already possess. If they were using generation ships to make the journey they would have spent decades if not centuries in a resource-strapped marginal environment - which could lead to loss of technology (and resulting difficulties repairing equipment, as well as a motivation for being less than forthright about their circumstances)...becoming in effect ETBillies - and plausibly they could undergo a militarisation of society (as people submit to regimentation in order to ration scarce resources and allocate tasks necessary for survival).

So while Hawking was speaking well outside his area of expertise (as is his right, like anyone else), I don't think his concerns should be dismissed out of hand, because they are not baseless.

I have to disagree. There is nothing chemically significant about the earth. Near as we can figure, the stuff that makes up the earth abounds throughout the solar system and (given what we know about stellar lifecycles) is therefore likely to exist everywhere else that one finds a solar system with a structure similar to ours. So the notion that they are "coming to take our stuff" as put forth by Hawking is utterly baseless as any half-way intelligent species would know they were much better off mining the Saturnian sub-system for whatever they needed rather than having to come down here and have the local monkeys fling their techno-poo at them (however ineffectual it may ultimately be).

The only thing that makes earth significant is life, it's the only reason to come here.
 
I have to disagree. There is nothing chemically significant about the earth. Near as we can figure, the stuff that makes up the earth abounds throughout the solar system and (given what we know about stellar lifecycles) is therefore likely to exist everywhere else that one finds a solar system with a structure similar to ours. So the notion that they are "coming to take our stuff" as put forth by Hawking is utterly baseless as any half-way intelligent species would know they were much better off mining the Saturnian sub-system for whatever they needed rather than having to come down here and have the local monkeys fling their techno-poo at them (however ineffectual it may ultimately be).

The only thing that makes earth significant is life, it's the only reason to come here.

I think you misunderstand my point.
We don't know the circumstances of a putative civilisation using generation ships.
We don't know what would prompt their journey, but it might be desperation (imagine a civilisation on a little more advanced than our own, but a little better organised, pursuing our level of stupidity and making their own world uninhabitable. So the elites and selected workers make their escape...). They might be running from more than heading to, so they would not necessarily know a great deal about the destination in advance. So we wouldn't have to be all that special, just handy.
When it comes to aliens who found themselves in our solar system, whether or not they had a motivation to act aggressively towards us would depend on what they wanted - that's going to depend on a complex mix of needs, desires and inherently alien cultural imperatives.
If for instance what they wanted was a habitable world, this is it, and in that sense Earth is unique in the Solar System (and in the generation ship scenario that's a very plausible objective...find the first world that's congenial to your species, and take it).
So I respectively disagree completely with your disagreement.
 
We don't know what would prompt their journey, but it might be desperation (imagine a civilisation on a little more advanced than our own, but a little better organised, pursuing our level of stupidity and making their own world uninhabitable. So the elites and selected workers make their escape...). They might be running from more than heading to, so they would not necessarily know a great deal about the destination in advance. So we wouldn't have to be all that special, just handy.

"We don't know..." is kind of a given here, I mean we are discussing the theoretical motives of alien beings. However the scenario you outline here is awfully similar to what Michael Tsarion puts forth in his gibberish so maybe it's best to back away from it slowly...

When it comes to aliens who found themselves in our solar system, whether or not they had a motivation to act aggressively towards us would depend on what they wanted - that's going to depend on a complex mix of needs, desires and inherently alien cultural imperatives.

In the scenario you're painting, their needs would seem to fall neatly into the "survival" catagory. As long as their continued existence did not directly require ending ours the need for aggression would probably be minimal.

If for instance what they wanted was a habitable world, this is it, and in that sense Earth is unique in the Solar System (and in the generation ship scenario that's a very plausible objective...find the first world that's congenial to your species, and take it)..

Perhaps but if you think about it, a generational ship IS a habitable "world" so long as it is fueled and supplied (it HAS to be for the whole "generational" thing to work). Permenant residence would be a seperate matter but again there are plenty of other bodies in the solar system that could serve as suitable habitats (or could have such habitats built onto them) that would not require dealing with us at all.

My point is Hawkings assumption of inevitable aggression seems ridiculously alarmist. At worst I would say the chances of aggresion would be 50-50 but that's super, duper worst-case. Realistically I'd say they'd be less than 10%.
 
I find this amusing.

However, the climate change subject is fair game for this thread, as we discussed it at some length on the show. However, I would encourage folks to move beyond simple rhetoric and offer something new. Actual science would be a good start.

Paul

I agree with Paul. Where is this science... that says humans have caused catastrophic global warming?
Where is the debate from the guru of CAGW, Al Gore and his ilk? They say they "lost" the data to support their side, they even said in their own emails they would destroy it before handing it over to others to review, they said in their own emails they would control the peer review process so their side could look like a consensus. They said in their own emails they would take nice vacations with the grant money received, they said in there own emails the models were not in their favor so some heavy duty data manipulation would have to be done, etc etc etc...
YES!!! Paul is correct, some actual science would be great!
 
Consider also that if we assume for the sake of argument that some UFO reports represent ET craft, we have no way of knowing whether they have just arrived from another star system or have in fact come from colony craft which have been concealed in some part of our solar system for decades.

Quite right. Consider - when European explorers would arrive on a distant shore, they would often poke about, make "contact" - and then leave. It was often decades later that the colonization would begin.

Just a thought.
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

Actually, it wasn't at Stan's lead, it was at mine. I would have avoided the UFO / paranormal subject altogether if it had been up to me. Stan and Kathy have written an interesting book that raises some profound questions, not about aliens from Zeta Reticuli or whatever, but about ourselves, and the world around us.

I agree with Paul (which I find is a rarity). This was one of the best interviews I've seen anyone give Stan. Stan came up with a bunch of new material instead of the same old sound bites. This was a superb episode.
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

I agree with Paul (which I find is a rarity). This was one of the best interviews I've seen anyone give Stan. Stan came up with a bunch of new material instead of the same old sound bites. This was a superb episode.

Someone said to me once how cool it must have been talking to Stan at our yearly family reunions, and other times, about UFOs. I just looked at them and said, "the last thing we usually talk about is UFOs - there's so much more to life." He thought I was nuts. I was sure that he was.;)


It was nice to give Stan a chance to remind people that he's always been more than just the Flying Saucer physicist.
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

Really liked this episode , kudos to our hosts and guests. :)

Same here. Just got done listening to it. It was nice to hear some different topics of discussion such as eugenics and the hemophiliac/AIDS issue.
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

I have to agre with Paul at this point - UFOs are getting boring. We see something in the sky, we don't know what it is, and we come up with an idea to figure out what it is. Most of the time people think it's aliens, and chances are, they're wrong, but they could be right. Too bad there's no definitive proof of anything.
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

I like Stan -- he's a serious investigator and an affable guy. But I'm often disappointed by his interviews. I've listened to some where the host would ask a question and Stan would take off. Often, I could almost recite his spiel right along with him. Aside from a couple "Uh-huh"s, the next time the host put more than two sentences together, he was thanking Stan for the interview and signing off.

Although my primary interests are in his UFO research, I thought this was a good Friedman interview. Both Gene and Paul did what a good interviewer needs to do with Stan -- gently wrap up a line of thought and direct him to another. The guy is very knowledgeable, but he does so many interviews, he can go on for half an hour, repeating the same interview, with just a "Hello, Stan" from the host.

Something that did make me take notice was Paul's comment, "I don't even think it's been proved on the balance of PROBABILITIES" when referring to the possibility of a non-terrestrial visitation to earth. I also consider myself to be skeptical in regard to most ET and UFO stories. But I do believe that the probability is more than 50% that there is a non-human factor in "at least one" of the more high-profile sightings. All it takes is a careful look at RAF Bentwaters and Lakenheath, the RB-47 encounter, the 1952 DC sightings (yes, including Braxton County, WV), Socorro, O'Hare, Shag Harbour, Colares, JAL 1628, Tehran, the mass sighting over Arizona in 1997, etc., etc. Skepticism is good -- especially when it comes to the kooky and nasty world of Ufology. I was just a little surprised when Paul seemed to say that an ET source for UFOs wasn't even probable (Paul, correct me if my understanding was incorrect).

Also, the topic of UFOs may justifiably "bore" some (we hear the same things hashed over and over), but its important to keep in mind that as The Paracast gets fresh listeners in the coming months, the topic of UFOs will be a huge (if not the biggest) draw to the show. I'll bet the publisher of the Chicago Tribune would agree that a serious look at the subject can be a huge draw.
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

Same here. Just got done listening to it. It was nice to hear some different topics of discussion such as eugenics and the hemophiliac/AIDS issue.


Very true.
On the hemophiliac issue for instance I knew there had been an appalling rate of contamination here and in Australia (same source) but I had no idea that it was a global disaster on that scale.
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

Something that did make me take notice was Paul's comment, "I don't even think it's been proved on the balance of PROBABILITIES" when referring to the possibility of a non-terrestrial visitation to earth. I also consider myself to be skeptical in regard to most ET and UFO stories. But I do believe that the probability is more than 50% that there is a non-human factor in "at least one" of the more high-profile sightings. All it takes is a careful look at RAF Bentwaters and Lakenheath, the RB-47 encounter, the 1952 DC sightings (yes, including Braxton County, WV), Socorro, O'Hare, Shag Harbour, Colares, JAL 1628, Tehran, the mass sighting over Arizona in 1997, etc., etc. Skepticism is good -- especially when it comes to the kooky and nasty world of Ufology. I was just a little surprised when Paul seemed to say that an ET source for UFOs wasn't even probable (Paul, correct me if my understanding was incorrect).

While the ETH is a valid hypothesis, no, I'm not convinced that it's more likely than not, which is what the "balance of probabilities" means, that aliens are coming here from "there." Some of those cases you cite are indeed interesting (I don't think much of O'Hare, or Socorro, and definitely not of Braxton County), but as they stand they are still a long way from providing evidence of alien visitation, even on the BoP standard of proof.

Paul
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

Human CO2 is of course harmful to the Planet. Pixel You have lost the debate already if you can't even accept that fact. We as a species are alive today because this planet is an Oxygen planet. It is what keeps us alive!! If you increase the natural CO2 LEVELS above the norm.
The cause, Human activity. You will then cause a effect in the weather patterns and harm the Planet in the long run and we will be effected by these changes Pixel,
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

Human CO2 is of course harmful to the Planet. Pixel You have lost the debate already if you can't even accept that fact. We as a species are alive today because this planet is an Oxygen planet. It is what keeps us alive!! If you increase the natural CO2 LEVELS above the norm.
The cause, Human activity. You will then cause a effect in the weather patterns and harm the Planet in the long run and we will be effected by these changes Pixel,

OMG... are you serious? What are normal levels? CO2 has been over 7000 ppm in the past, if you sit in a small room or cubicle you are in 4000 ppm, you expel about 4000 ppm, the levels being recorded today are about 388 ppm. Commercial greenhouse owners often pump CO2 levels up to an optimum 1200 ppm. CO@ is an essential life giving trace gas. It is not your enemy.
I suggest if you are so concerned about human CO2 you should hold your breath for about 20 minutes and help us all out. ;)
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

OMG... are you serious? What are normal levels? CO2 has been over 7000 ppm in the past, if you sit in a small room or cubicle you are in 4000 ppm, you expel about 4000 ppm, the levels being recorded today are about 388 ppm. Commercial greenhouse owners often pump CO2 levels up to an optimum 1200 ppm. CO@ is an essential life giving trace gas. It is not your enemy.
I suggest if you are so concerned about human CO2 you should hold your breath for about 20 minutes and help us all out. ;)

"Your arguments are flawed. It up to you to figure why they are. Anyway a debate with you is pointless as proven with the 9/11 thread previously.

---------- Post added at 02:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:17 PM ----------

ETH is an unprovable theory. While people do experience seeing Craft and beings that are not Human. It is a giant leap to go, and say they must be Aliens from Another Planet outside our solar system. This Planet is a well over three Billions years old, and or recorded history is less than six thousand years old. And all i know is, what i have experienced was all Earth bound. So while i do speculate to the Origins of UFO's. I still think we should be rational in discussion of these topics. Nobody has prove these Craft are of Alien design or of Human design!!

All i am certain of is they exist, and they are appearing here on this planet. Others here on the Forums can go on Believing in Aliens from other planets, or for that matter Aliens from Elsewhere. But usually the simplest answer is the Correct one, and if we speculate on the distances needed to get here from there. The most likely explanations for UFO's, is that they are owned by an one or more Intelligent races and they are pretty close by to us. In or solar system or on the planet Earth, or a World near to us, that we can not see .
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

"Your arguments are flawed. It up to you to figure why they are. Anyway a debate with you is pointless as proven with the 9/11 thread previously.


CO2 is a trace gas in the atmosphere. There is not enough of it to cause anything on a cataclysmic scale. If anything, our planet is CO2 starved. If you knew squat about natural CO2 contributors we wouldn't be having this conversation. ie: Swamps and wetlands alone contribute far more CO2 than humans.
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

No offense to Stan and Kathy, because their book is interesting and contains some good stuff, but a far better book to read (especially if you're Pixelsmith) is Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming, by science historians Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway.

From the publisher (which jibes exactly with my own thoughts - slightly edited by me):

It tells a very disturbing story of how a cadre of influential scientists have clouded public understanding of scientific facts to advance a right-waing political and economic agenda. The U.S. scientific community has long led the world in research on such areas as public health, environmental science, and issues affecting quality of life, andhave produced landmark studies on the dangers of DDT, tobacco smoke, acid rain, and global warming (as can be seen with the consensus NRC reports I mentioned to Stan). But at the same time, a small yet potent subset of this community leads the world in vehement denial of these dangers. Merchants of Doubt tells the story of how a loose-knit group of high-level scientists and scientific advisers, with deep connections in politics and industry, ran effective campaigns to mislead the public and deny well-established scientific knowledge over four decades. Remarkably, the same individuals surface repeatedly—some of the same figures who have claimed that the science of global warming is "not settled" denied the truth of studies linking smoking to lung cancer, coal smoke to acid rain, and CFCs to the ozone hole. "Doubt is our product," wrote one tobacco executive. These "experts" supplied it. The book shows how ideology and corporate interests, aided by a too-compliant media and a core group of people who want to believe that everything is just fine, and who are more afraid of multinational institutions than they are about the truth confronting us about things like global warming, have skewed public understanding of some of the most pressing issues of our era.

From the review in Science:

"In their fascinating and important study, Merchants of Doubt, Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway offer convincing evidence for a surprising and disturbing thesis. Opposition to scientifically well-supported claims about the dangers of cigarette smoking, the difficulties of the Strategic Defense Initiative ("Star Wars"), the effects of acid rain, the existence of the ozone hole, the problems caused by secondhand smoke, and—ultimately—the existence of anthropogenic climate change was used in "the service of political goals and commercial interests" to obstruct the transmission to the American public of important information…Because it is so thorough in disclosing how major policy decisions have been delayed or distorted, Merchants of Doubt deserves a wide readership. It is tempting to require that all those engaged in the business of conveying scientific information to the general public should read it."

From the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

"An important book…The next time a friend or Fox News commentator or political candidate assaults you with the claim that "climate change isn't happening" or "isn't caused by human activities," you will recognize the source of their colossal misunderstanding. The good news is, honest science wins in the end. The bad news: The earth is heating up while this artificially heated debate rages, though Merchants of Doubt, if widely read, should help douse the media flames."

And my favourite, from the Economist, hardly a leftist publication:

"In this powerful book, Oreskes and Conway show how big tobacco's disreputable and self-serving tactics were adapted for later use in a number of debates about the environment. Their story takes in nuclear power, missile defence, acid rain and the ozone layer. In all these debates a relatively small cadre of right-wing scientists, some of them eminent, worked through organisations sometimes created specifically for the purpose to take on a scientific establishment that they perceived to be dangerously unsympathetic to the interests of capital and national security."

Of course, I'm sure Pixelsmith will rush right out to buy it. Or perhaps he likes being duped... which is ironic considering his belief in all things conspiracy-oriented. Well, here's a real conspiracy between big business, the right wing, the national security state and science, to obscure the truth. If you choose not to accept it, then who's the real sheep here?

As for Stan, he's right - science is wrong sometimes. And this time, he's one of those scientists.
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

No offense to Stan and Kathy, because their book is interesting and contains some good stuff, but a far better book to read (especially if you're Pixelsmith) is Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming, by science historians Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway.

From the publisher (which jibes exactly with my own thoughts - slightly edited by me):

It tells a very disturbing story of how a cadre of influential scientists have clouded public understanding of scientific facts to advance a right-waing political and economic agenda. The U.S. scientific community has long led the world in research on such areas as public health, environmental science, and issues affecting quality of life, andhave produced landmark studies on the dangers of DDT, tobacco smoke, acid rain, and global warming (as can be seen with the consensus NRC reports I mentioned to Stan). But at the same time, a small yet potent subset of this community leads the world in vehement denial of these dangers. Merchants of Doubt tells the story of how a loose-knit group of high-level scientists and scientific advisers, with deep connections in politics and industry, ran effective campaigns to mislead the public and deny well-established scientific knowledge over four decades. Remarkably, the same individuals surface repeatedly—some of the same figures who have claimed that the science of global warming is "not settled" denied the truth of studies linking smoking to lung cancer, coal smoke to acid rain, and CFCs to the ozone hole. "Doubt is our product," wrote one tobacco executive. These "experts" supplied it. The book shows how ideology and corporate interests, aided by a too-compliant media and a core group of people who want to believe that everything is just fine, and who are more afraid of multinational institutions than they are about the truth confronting us about things like global warming, have skewed public understanding of some of the most pressing issues of our era.

From the review in Science:

"In their fascinating and important study, Merchants of Doubt, Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway offer convincing evidence for a surprising and disturbing thesis. Opposition to scientifically well-supported claims about the dangers of cigarette smoking, the difficulties of the Strategic Defense Initiative ("Star Wars"), the effects of acid rain, the existence of the ozone hole, the problems caused by secondhand smoke, and—ultimately—the existence of anthropogenic climate change was used in "the service of political goals and commercial interests" to obstruct the transmission to the American public of important information…Because it is so thorough in disclosing how major policy decisions have been delayed or distorted, Merchants of Doubt deserves a wide readership. It is tempting to require that all those engaged in the business of conveying scientific information to the general public should read it."

From the Minneapolis Star-Tribune:

"An important book…The next time a friend or Fox News commentator or political candidate assaults you with the claim that "climate change isn't happening" or "isn't caused by human activities," you will recognize the source of their colossal misunderstanding. The good news is, honest science wins in the end. The bad news: The earth is heating up while this artificially heated debate rages, though Merchants of Doubt, if widely read, should help douse the media flames."

And my favourite, from the Economist, hardly a leftist publication:

"In this powerful book, Oreskes and Conway show how big tobacco's disreputable and self-serving tactics were adapted for later use in a number of debates about the environment. Their story takes in nuclear power, missile defence, acid rain and the ozone layer. In all these debates a relatively small cadre of right-wing scientists, some of them eminent, worked through organisations sometimes created specifically for the purpose to take on a scientific establishment that they perceived to be dangerously unsympathetic to the interests of capital and national security."

Of course, I'm sure Pixelsmith will rush right out to buy it. Or perhaps he likes being duped... which is ironic considering his belief in all things conspiracy-oriented. Well, here's a real conspiracy between big business, the right wing, the national security state and science, to obscure the truth. If you choose not to accept it, then who's the real sheep here?

As for Stan, he's right - science is wrong sometimes. And this time, he's one of those scientists.

I will have to check it out. Thanks Paul. I guess it leaves me wondering why all the lies, deceit, data manipulation, lack of debate, etc etc etc from the fear mongers if the science supports their claims of CAGW caused by CO2? Why fudge data? Why use computer models? Why control the peer review process? Why blackball scientists with opposing views? If the science is settled, simply show the science.

As far as this book goes, why would the authors pick on dead guys (based on preconceived opinion) who cannot defend themselves? The authors say these dead scientists “fought the scientific evidence.” Duh.. that is true science. I would be suspect of any scientist who didn't question their peers. Scientific method seams to have gone out the door now days. Challenging theory, hypothesis, and evidence is the basis for modern science, right? I will check out this book but I hope it is chock full of facts, evidence and logic about the science surrounding CAGW rather than a sad hit piece on dead scientists who cannot defend themselves.
 
June 20th: A plea to Gene and Paul

More fuel for our latest climate change debate.

Expert credibility in climate change

Expert credibility in climate change — PNAS


LMAO... Stephen H. Schneider as a credible expert?!? The Billy of CAGW? The Kal of Klimate Change? Tell me you are joking? This paper is junk science in itself. This paper failed miserably and is a laughing stock among scientists in both camps. LMAO!!! Good one jkoci! Stephen H. Schneider was a global cooling alarmist in 1971 then a warming alarmist in 1976, and is famous for his statement: "We need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have."

Certainly you are joking... right?
 
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