Stanton T. Friedman — August 3, 2014

[Randall]

... perhaps in the future Science will finally catch up and will understand the 'mechanics' behind synchronicities, precognition & other type of phenomena.
For example, notable parapsychologist Dean Radin had a personal synchronicity that is simply MIND-BLOWING, and he tries to posit a (primitive) hypothesis on why such things could happen:

Interesting story, but at the same time I don't find it all that surprising. The first synchronicity involving the name of the business isn't really all that synchronistic because Krakower's lab was called PSI Quest and Dean's was called the Boundary Institute. Dean is now with something called Institute of Noetic Sciences. So the name itself isn't really synchronistic at all.

That they both happen to involve PSI research isn't necessarily all that synchronistic either when one considers that both people needed some space to do their work, and they both lived in the same vicinity. There are only so many places available that are suitable to their situations, so they tended to gravitate toward similar locations. In other words, it's not surprising at all to find several different people who do the same kind of business checking out the same kind of space. I know because I once owned a small salon on a strip mall and had looked at numerous other locations and had run into other people looking to d the same thing. It's just not that surprising.

Then there's the situation where Krakower believes he was "manifesting" Dean into his life experience. Fact is, he was already familiar with Dean, and they were both interested in the same type of research. Therefore it's only logical that if he were setting out to "manifest" some situation, that it would involve somebody he was already familiar with who was doing the same type of thing. If he were trying to manifest Lady Gaga showing up at his door, then that might have been more impressive because she would have no similar elements of her life to mysteriously draw her to the location.

Finally we have the whiteboard synchronicity with the room layout. Again we have two of the same type of researchers doing work in the same type of office complex in similar rooms, so there are only going to be so many combinations that work out. Using my salon example, there is an optimal layout for the where the stations and basins and reception are going to go in every location, and in similar locations that layout isn't going to change much, so again. not really all that mind blowing, noteworthy sure, but mind blowing, not so much.

 

[Burnt State]

Fair enough. But I really think you should try to consider, that all those countless hours of outdoors skywatching, that drive that put you 'in the right place at the right time', and all those years you have diligently devoted into studying & understanding this mystery, might just have been the result of some sort of external compulsion. The 'sense of a mission' Mike & many others who claim the direct contact experience feel.

Or are you still under the delusion that we're all here in the Paracast by mere chance?

As a Fortean, I can entertain the possibility of the existence of UFOs, Bigfoot, ghosts, the loch Ness monster & even the goddamned Chupacabras. But random chance? Puh-leeease!

The sense of mission that many adopt, for example to become a shaman as Brad Steiger defines himself, to me is a more self-appointed quest. Everyone has options for fields of study and how they make a career. There are a lot of examples of folks like Friedman and Mack who directly alter the trajectory of their career because of personal compulsions and attractions to mysteries. I'm sure a lot of folk who entered into monastic life did so out of strange experiences and the voice of god in their head. I'm not too sure about the validity of that voice but know that intense experience, no matter how mundane or exceptional their origin, have the power to alter who we are and what we become.

I'm not prepared to believe that anyone has ever been chosen, but that we choose to pursue and chase ideologies and mysteries of our own volition. Then we collect together, go to conventions, listen to paranormal radio and post on forums together. Some call this a religion, and for some it works like that. Others want the science of the mystery and they pursue it very differently through a different set of lenses & emotions.

Once we start codifying the experience as per Vallée & Clelland we start to colour the phenomenon with familiar cultural brushes of the past. This may not be appropriate at all but just us using the tools we are familiar with. Vallée warns of deceptive messengers that arise because of this history. That's what humans have always done when confronted with mysteries like: why does the sun keep rising and setting, why did the crops turn out really sucky this year, what are those strange objects in the sky all about? Now we're no longer sacrificing virgins, but some sacrifice themselves in cults of belief and maybe it's time to stick to the science of it all just to keep ourselves thinking and shooting straight?

While I don't believe Mike's article says UFO witness=abductee, it's the researchers that say that, and perhaps that's an ideology to be very wary of, though he doesn't say that. But think of the harm done to those unstable folk who feel that they have been chosen and for them the article is truth. They believe they are the window; problems ensue.

 

[red_pill_junkie]

Interesting story, but at the same time I don't find it all that surprising. The first synchronicity involving the name of the business isn't really all that synchronistic because Krakower's lab was called PSI Quest and Dean's was called the Boundary Institute. Dean is now with something called Institute of Noetic Sciences. So the name itself isn't really synchronistic at all.

That they both happen to involve PSI research isn't necessarily all that synchronistic either when one considers that both people needed some space to do their work, and they both lived in the same vicinity. There are only so many places available that are suitable to their situations, so they tended to gravitate toward similar locations. In other words, it's not surprising at all to find several different people who do the same kind of business checking out the same kind of space. I know because I once owned a small salon on a strip mall and had looked at numerous other locations and had run into other people looking to d the same thing. It's just not that surprising.

Then there's the situation where Krakower believes he was "manifesting" Dean into his life experience. Fact is, he was already familiar with Dean, and they were both interested in the same type of research. Therefore it's only logical that if he were setting out to "manifest" some situation, that it would involve somebody he was already familiar with who was doing the same type of thing. If he were trying to manifest Lady Gaga showing up at his door, then that might have been more impressive because she would have no similar elements of her life to mysteriously draw her to the location.

Finally we have the whiteboard synchronicity with the room layout. Again we have two of the same type of researchers doing work in the same type of office complex in similar rooms, so there are only going to be so many combinations that work out. Using my salon example, there is an optimal layout for the where the stations and basins and reception are going to go in every location, and in similar locations that layout isn't going to change much, so again. not really all that mind blowing, noteworthy sure, but mind blowing, not so much.

Wow. I find your disregard of this story quite telling. --And not that surprising, given your stance on the UFO phenomenon.

But anyway, a couple of things (and this is the only time I'm going to address this issue, because it's not really that relevant to this particular thread):

* Krakower had NO idea Radin was in Silicon Valley, if you read his bio, you'll see Dean kept changing location quite frequently prior to his founding of the Boundary Institute.
* Yes, the scarcity of cheap real estate played a role in their serendipitous meeting, but Los Altos still has an area 6.4 square miles, and some 30,000 residents. The Boundary Institute & PSI Quest found themselves as Next. Door. Neighbors!
* What's more, all that time both Radin & Krakower were only divided by a freaking wall, and while Radin was sketching his dream lab on his whiteboard, PSI Quest's lab was on the opposite room, just a couple of feet away!

So that's why, IMHO, Radin's synchronicity is mind-effing-blowing. YMMV of course.

 

[red_pill_junkie]

The sense of mission that many adopt, for example to become a shaman as Brad Steiger defines himself, to me is a more self-appointed quest. Everyone has options for fields of study and how they make a career. There are a lot of examples of folks like Friedman and Mack who directly alter the trajectory of their career because of personal compulsions and attractions to mysteries. I'm sure a lot of folk who entered into monastic life did so out of strange experiences and the voice of god in their head. I'm not too sure about the validity of that voice but know that intense experience, no matter how mundane or exceptional their origin, have the power to alter who we are and what we become.

I'm not prepared to believe that anyone has ever been chosen, but that we choose to pursue and chase ideologies and mysteries of our own volition. Then we collect together, go to conventions, listen to paranormal radio and post on forums together. Some call this a religion, and for some it works like that. Others want the science of the mystery and they pursue it very differently through a different set of lenses & emotions.

Once we start codifying the experience as per Vallée & Clelland we start to colour the phenomenon with familiar cultural brushes of the past. This may not be appropriate at all but just us using the tools we are familiar with. Vallée warns of deceptive messengers that arise because of this history. That's what humans have always done when confronted with mysteries like: why does the sun keep rising and setting, why did the crops turn out really sucky this year, what are those strange objects in the sky all about? Now we're no longer sacrificing virgins, but some sacrifice themselves in cults of belief and maybe it's time to stick to the science of it all just to keep ourselves thinking and shooting straight?

While I don't believe Mike's article says UFO witness=abductee, it's the researchers that say that, and perhaps that's an ideology to be very wary of, though he doesn't say that. But think of the harm done to those unstable folk who feel that they have been chosen and for them the article is truth. They believe they are the window; problems ensue.

This all boils down to the age-old debate between Determinism & Free Will. Do we all have a fate? Can we change our destinies or is it all written down?

My own personal interpretations is not Either/Or. As many things in the Fortean world, I choose to see it as Both/And


So I think everybody in this life has a role to play, and each one is important, regardless of the attention it gets.

Sayonara

 

[Randall]

Wow. I find your disregard of this story quite telling. --And not that surprising, given your stance on the UFO phenomenon.

But anyway, a couple of things (and this is the only time I'm going to address this issue, because it's not really that relevant to this particular thread):

* Krakower had NO idea Radin was in Silicon Valley, if you read his bio, you'll see Dean kept changing location quite frequently prior to his founding of the Boundary Institute.
* Yes, the scarcity of cheap real estate played a role in their serendipitous meeting, but Los Altos still has an area 6.4 square miles, and some 30,000 residents. The Boundary Institute & PSI Quest found themselves as Next. Door. Neighbors!
* What's more, all that time both Radin & Krakower were only divided by a freaking wall, and while Radin was sketching his dream lab on his whiteboard, PSI Quest's lab was on the opposite room, just a couple of feet away!

So that's why, IMHO, Radin's synchronicity is mind-effing-blowing. YMMV of course.

I wouldn't call considering the alternative to assuming something mystical a "disregard". Two people doing the same type of work happen to need some space for an office, so both check the same local listings, and both end-up renting in the same location. I just don't see that as mystical, and when we consider that these office complexes usually offer space in very similar configurations, it's not surprising that two people doing the same thing would come up with a similar floor plan and even post it on the same wall facing each other if they happen to have rented next to each other, because office spaces next to each other often have a mirror configuration.

Plus we're dealing with what they say were the only two researchers of that type in the vicinity who were looking for space, so it's not like there were 10,000 other possible combinations to consider. When we look at it from that perspective it's almost would have been more surprising if they had not ended up in close proximity. So again, it's not disregard. I think we have a responsibility to consider the flipside before we buy into any particular belief.

 

[DissectionStalker]

This is debating about Roswell and Air Force O.S.I. PSYOPS creating the ET-UFO crash with dead ET's and one live one too at Roswell, and how Stanton Friedman was sent down that Rabbit Hole too!

My point to you is that I find it highly unlikely that so many people could be involved in a psyops scheme, especially after all these years.

Very few people were directly involved in the PSYOPS. I've already listed the core group, which included Stanton Friedman [unwittingly] on some indirect level IF we are to believe Kevin Randle [and the other person KR refers to]. Listen to recent Paracast w/Randle.

The perversely sick thing about a PSYOPS on these people is it is done INDIRECTLY. There is no recruitment or conscious involvement. You need to learn about PSYOPS before stating: "I find it highly unlikely that so many people could be involved in a psyops scheme," [...], because these people would have no idea they've been manipulated or are a part of some PSYOPS.

This PSYOPS was playing with memories 30-40 years ago. I'm sorry, if you can't understand that it's VERY EASY to confuse and blend years and events within that time frame of 1947 decades later in the 1980's. Push the right buttons with people's beliefs and rumors that went on, and the outcome is guaranteed.

Richard Doty and A.F.O.S.I. co-opted the main author on Roswell, which, btw, was NOT Stanton Friedman. S.F. was their gopher for the book. The masterminds manipulated S.F. The publisher wanted to embellish and exaggerate what happened too. He did. Why? Money!

The damage was already done before S.F. took over "Roswell" from Bill Moore. S.F. essentially used the same A.F.PSYOPS storyline Bill did, so no matter what S.F. comes-up with it is still the same basic A.F.O.S.I. PSYOPS the second time around. Duhhh!

Btw, these are NOT my ideas I've run with! No! These are ideas I've learned by studying 'the experts' that have researched this for decades "combined", and these people personally knew or interviewed the main players -Bill Moore and Richard Doty!

Stanton Friedman is 'old news' vs those two that ALREADY had manipulated and shaped the Roswell story before S.F.

Oh yeah, Jacques Vallee and Nick Redfern have also cast SERIOUS DOUBTS about Roswell being an ET-UFO crash too! I can assure you I have nothing to do with influencing their ideas that were researched and learned by them before I learned their ideas.

Here are some of their ideas about Roswell during that same summer in 1947. Be sure to check into Nick Redfern's 700 page FOIA he got that shows there was a major outbreak of plague or similar disease in that same county and timeline of Roswell's crash. A 7yo boy lived just 3 miles from the crash site and died that same summer! Hint hint. Lots of people died with bleed out and fast. It became so worrisome that reports of these deaths were being passed on to all kinds of Feds (FBI Military CIA Atomic) worrying about bio-weapons outbreak.

Jacques Vallee also said there could be a related bio-weapons or atomic issue [even unethical experiments] that might be related to the crash too -reasons for cover-up.

This would account for children's [ET] coffins, etc. Perhaps disfigured [ET] people too considering "the bleed out" and rapid death of these people. This was a serious outbreak that killed fast, so it probably spun-out of control at least initially. The main thing is this all started-up the same summer of "the crash". This should all be documented in Redfern's most recent book about people dying relating to UFO biz.

You can't show me ET, you can't show me debris evidence, but you can show me the results of an A.F.O.S.I. PSYOPS. You're one of their "head cases", since you agree with their planned outcome! Do you not understand this? Do you not understand that A.F.O.S.I. wanted you to believe there was an ET-UFO crash with dead ET's, and a live ET too??? That was their PSYOPS objective in the late 1970's and '80's, and it worked on you too! You've been PSYOPS'd. Bummer!!!

The Roswell witnesses were never recruited or aware of the PSYOPS. It was not until about 2005 that "its cover" got blown. (That's not to say that some were informants or plants, but that would be very few people indeed.)

When PSYOPS work it's easy to say something "straight faced" if you believe in the rumors, or think you saw something 30+ years ago relevant to the rumors too! A.F.O.S.I. had a propaganda disinformation campaign stating EXACTLY what Moore [and those silly rabbit followers far down that rabbit hole] have been told and wrote about it -the exact same ET story! When it's more than 30+ years ago, AND there are other top secret events that can be easily confused and distorted and mixed together from so long ago, then it is EASY for witnesses to be straight faced and mistaken too!

 

[Heidi Lemmer]

This is debating about Roswell and Air Force O.S.I. PSYOPS creating the ET-UFO crash with dead ET's and one live one too at Roswell, and how Stanton Friedman was sent down that Rabbit Hole too!
Very few people were directly involved in the PSYOPS. I've already listed the core group, which included Stanton Friedman [unwittingly] on some indirect level IF we are to believe Kevin Randle [and the other person KR refers to]. Listen to recent Paracast w/Randle.

The perversely sick thing about a PSYOPS on these people is it is done INDIRECTLY. There is no recruitment or conscious involvement. You need to learn about PSYOPS before stating: "I find it highly unlikely that so many people could be involved in a psyops scheme," [...], because these people would have no idea they've been manipulated or are a part of some PSYOPS.

This PSYOPS was playing with memories 30-40 years ago. I'm sorry, if you can't understand that it's VERY EASY to confuse and blend years and events within that time frame of 1947 decades later in the 1980's. Push the right buttons with people's beliefs and rumors that went on, and the outcome is guaranteed.

Richard Doty and A.F.O.S.I. co-opted the main author on Roswell, which, btw, was NOT Stanton Friedman. S.F. was their gopher for the book. The masterminds manipulated S.F. The publisher wanted to embellish and exaggerate what happened too. He did. Why? Money!

The damage was already done before S.F. took over "Roswell" from Bill Moore. S.F. essentially used the same A.F.PSYOPS storyline Bill did, so no matter what S.F. comes-up with it is still the same basic A.F.O.S.I. PSYOPS the second time around. Duhhh!

Btw, these are NOT my ideas I've run with! No! These are ideas I've learned by studying 'the experts' that have researched this for decades "combined", and these people personally knew or interviewed the main players -Bill Moore and Richard Doty!

Stanton Friedman is 'old news' vs those two that ALREADY had manipulated and shaped the Roswell story before S.F.

Oh yeah, Jacques Vallee and Nick Redfern have also cast SERIOUS DOUBTS about Roswell being an ET-UFO crash too! I can assure you I have nothing to do with influencing their ideas that were researched and learned by them before I learned their ideas.

Here are some of their ideas about Roswell during that same summer in 1947. Be sure to check into Nick Redfern's 700 page FOIA he got that shows there was a major outbreak of plague or similar disease in that same county and timeline of Roswell's crash. A 7yo boy lived just 3 miles from the crash site and died that same summer! Hint hint. Lots of people died with bleed out and fast. It became so worrisome that reports of these deaths were being passed on to all kinds of Feds (FBI Military CIA Atomic) worrying about bio-weapons outbreak.

Jacques Vallee also said there could be a related bio-weapons or atomic issue [even unethical experiments] that might be related to the crash too -reasons for cover-up.

This would account for children's [ET] coffins, etc. Perhaps disfigured [ET] people too considering "the bleed out" and rapid death of these people. This was a serious outbreak that killed fast, so it probably spun-out of control at least initially. The main thing is this all started-up the same summer of "the crash". This should all be documented in Redfern's most recent book about people dying relating to UFO biz.

You can't show me ET, you can't show me debris evidence, but you can show me the results of an A.F.O.S.I. PSYOPS. You're one of their "head cases", since you agree with their planned outcome! Do you not understand this? Do you not understand that A.F.O.S.I. wanted you to believe there was an ET-UFO crash with dead ET's, and a live ET too??? That was their PSYOPS objective in the late 1970's and '80's, and it worked on you too! You've been PSYOPS'd. Bummer!!!

The Roswell witnesses were never recruited or aware of the PSYOPS. It was not until about 2005 that "its cover" got blown. (That's not to say that some were informants or plants, but that would be very few people indeed.)

When PSYOPS work it's easy to say something "straight faced" if you believe in the rumors, or think you saw something 30+ years ago relevant to the rumors too! A.F.O.S.I. had a propaganda disinformation campaign stating EXACTLY what Moore [and those silly rabbit followers far down that rabbit hole] have been told and wrote about it -the exact same ET story! When it's more than 30+ years ago, AND there are other top secret events that can be easily confused and distorted and mixed together from so long ago, then it is EASY for witnesses to be straight faced and mistaken too!

Roswell, and the book of Nick Redfern

"I can assure you I have nothing to do with influencing their ideas that were researched and learned by them before I learned their ideas." Why would I think it possible you could influence other researchers? Do you know them personally?

 

[Heidi Lemmer]

Roswell, and the book of Nick Redfern

"I can assure you I have nothing to do with influencing their ideas that were researched and learned by them before I learned their ideas." Why would I think it possible you could influence other researchers? Do you know them personally?

The risk of disinformation

In the debate on "UFO Updates", the question of possible disinformation has been raised, as could be expected. Redfern admitted that it was a possibility but doubted it for several reasons. Firstly, according to him, there has been, indeed, a lot of disinformation, but in the opposite direction: it was all aimed at propagating false tales of UFO crashes, in Roswell but also in other places such as the Aztec case. And this long lasting program of disinformation was implemented just to hide the horrible experiments in White Sands!

In fact, the history of ufology in the United States shows, on the contrary, a hard line of denial of UFOs in general, and especially of UFO crashes. Just look at the Roswell case, and the two big books of the Air Force against the UFO crash, in 1995 and 1997. Roswell was buried as soon as July 9, 1947, and for thirty years, with a ridicule explanation of confusion with a weather balloon. The case surfaced again, slowly, toward the end of the seventies, when independant researchers began finding witnesses. And, obviously, the intelligence services were not glad about it.

However, Redfern goes even farther. He quotes Mr "T", intelligence agent at the MOD, as telling him that disinformation tales "centered on three key issues (p. 83):
1) accounts of crashed UFOs and the recovery of alien bodies;
2) stories concerning underground bases in New Mexico that had been taken over by hostile alien forces;
3) tales of "alien-induced animal mutilation".
It is true that there has been a subtle line of "amplifying disinformation", as the French study group Cometa called it in its report. A well known exemple is the disinformation fed to engineer Paul Bennewitz in the 80s, revealed by Bill Moore who had participated in it secretly. This is the second point cited by agent "T", the story of the alleged alien base in Dulce, New Mexico, which has been exposed in great detail in another recent book, Project Beta of Greg Bishop (11). But a wrong information may be launched to hide a true one, of the same kind! As for the "tales" of cattle mutilations linked to UFOs, the true story is exactly the contrary: there has been continuous efforts by all official agencies to deny such stories! That claim of Mr "T" is blatantly false.

A second reason for not being disinformed, pleaded Redfern, is the convergence of independent informers, telling the same story, and of documents revealing certain aspects similar to his story. Yes, several informers told him the same story of prisoners from Unit 731: Mr levine in 1996 (p. 85), the Colonel in November 2003 (p. 108), Bill Salter on December 6, 2003 (p. 91), and Al Barker three days later! (pp. 91 and 141). But this story is false, and this convergence raises on the contrary the question of a kind of concerted disinformation.
As for the documents, the exemple already mentioned of the "Sunshine" and "Body Snatchers" program, shows the weakness of the argument. It was not related at all to the alleged experiments in White Sands, and the same can be said of other documents quoted in the book. Actually, there is not one piece of documentation sustaining the story.
Redfern also argues that he was not a good target at all for such an action, because he has been semi-retired from active ufology during recent years. But this argument is not very convincing, as the American researcher Brad Sparks pointed out on UFO Updates, showing a long list of his participations in conferences, and articles published in recent years.

Conclusion
In all, the hypothesis of an operation of disinformation seems quite plausible. This a very dubious story, for which I have not found any credible evidence in the book of Nick Redfern. A book which may start again the polemics and confusion about Roswell. But, in my opinion, the hypothesis of a UFO crash in Roswell still holds. Roswell, and the book of Nick Redfern

 

[Heidi Lemmer]

Didn't Nick Redfern find it a little odd that three different people, two in a matter of days, approached him with the "real" truth on Roswell, oh, and they want to remain anonymous. Yet so many folks gave testimony which included their names to researchers through the years, plenty of them directly at the various scenes of the crash and retrieval, movement of material. Sorry bud, no matter how many times you imply that I'm stupid and a sheeple, I'm still not seeing Psyops as the solution.

 

[DissectionStalker]

"I can assure you I have nothing to do with influencing their ideas that were researched and learned by them before I learned their ideas."

I'm just suggesting that my ideas come from a lot of different sources, so I'm 'not' just blowing smoke with "my" pet theory. IF there was a strong case for ET's at Roswell in 1947, then I would believe it. But, I have serious problems with believing A.F.O.S.I. that "wrote the book" for Bill Moore and all the other "same answers" books that sheepishly follow including S.F. They're all built upon the crumbing foundations of AFOSI PSYOPS started in the 1970's. Get real.

The most recent book from Redfern has the info about the 700 page FOIA he got detailing about "plague like" deaths that occurred in the exact same area and timeline as "the crash".

This is that book:

Close Encounters of the Fatal Kind: Suspicious Deaths, Mysterious Murders, and Bizarre Disappearances in UFO History - June 23, 2014


.

 

[Randall]

This is debating about Roswell and Air Force O.S.I. PSYOPS creating the ET-UFO crash with dead ET's and one live one too at Roswell, and how Stanton Friedman was sent down that Rabbit Hole too!

How about that the AFOSI was founded August 1, 1948, over a year after the press release from Roswell Army Airfield from July, 1947? If the AFOSI didn't yet exist, it would have been rather difficult for them to fake a UFO crash, and let's also try to remember that at that time, there was no widespread cultural phenomena associated with UFOs for a PSY-OP to capitalize on. In fact, the phrase "Flying Saucer" hadn't even been invented yet, and it would be several more years before the word UFO came into use. At best, they might have been trying to capitalize on the 1938 War of The Worlds broadcast, but that is very unlikely because it was responsible for creating public panic, and that's the last thing you'd want to do if you're trying to cover something up. The theory that some secret PSY-OP group used an alien crash story to cover-up some other secret project is very weak.

 

[Heidi Lemmer]

How about that the AFOSI was founded August 1, 1948, over a year after the press release from Roswell Army Airfield from July, 1947? If the AFOSI didn't yet exist, it would have been rather difficult for them to fake a UFO crash, and let's also try to remember that at that time, there was no widespread cultural phenomena associated with UFOs for a PSY-OP to capitalize on. In fact, the phrase "Flying Saucer" hadn't even been invented yet, and it would be several more years before the word UFO came into use. At best, they might be trying to capitalize on the 1938 War of The Worlds broadcast, but that is very unlikely because that was responsible for creating public panic, the last thing you'd want to do if you were trying to cover something up. The whole O.S.I. PSYOPS faking an alien crash story to cover-up for some other secret project makes no sense whatsoever.

Bout time you showed up, I'm getting heartburn!

 

[DissectionStalker]

Bout time you showed up, I'm getting heartburn!

Why should you get heartburn? Seriously. PLEASE understand we're just having some friendly debate.

I can't understand why Constance has put me on ignore, when I just wanted her honest commentary about what Vallee said. [She implied I might be misrepresenting what he was suggesting.] Then she got mad at me for merely stating what Kevin Randle said what Stanton Friedman had confided in him, and it was not just "gossip" or single source -it had directly to do with PSYOPS'ing Roswell witnesses too.

Look, Heidi, what probability do you assign for ET-UFO to travel light years to Earth and crash near a Military Test Range and the only Atomic Weapons Base on planet Earth vs Humans doing it???

Have you heard of the Drake Equation -I think you have, but you need to start applying that concept to how ET gets to Earth traveling light years but crashes on planet Earth vs NOT crashing!

I would estimate there is no more than one in a ten thousand chance that ET crashes IF their science is only a hundred years more advanced than ours. IF their science is a million or more years advanced than ours, then the chances of ET crashing is about one in a trillion or less.

Now, factor in to the above:

What is the likelihood that ET crashes [vs Humans] near the Human military's most top secret base on planet Earth???

My guess is the chances of that happening are about one in a million (easily could be a billion or more), so just let's just "underestimate" and multiply that million number to the above numbers and you get:

1) A one in Ten Billion Chance to:
2) A one in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance...
or one in a million x a trillion chance!

THOSE ODDS ARE SHEEIT to start with, and that does not even account for other odds that will lower this equation even further to be MUCH less likely!

So Heidi, why shouldn't I be Highly Skeptical of AFOSI's 1970's-80's explanation vs those odds above??? Wink.

 

[Christopher O'Brien]

I somewhat appreciate some of your thinking/logic/analysis, but have a problem w/ your incessant posturing and your umm, how should I put this? "Sophomoric-emphaticisms..." Is that a word? If not, in your case, it could be!

 

[DissectionStalker]

How about that the AFOSI was founded August 1, 1948, over a year after the press release from Roswell Army Airfield from July, 1947? If the AFOSI didn't yet exist, it would have been rather difficult for them to fake a UFO crash, and let's also try to remember that at that time, there was no widespread cultural phenomena associated with UFOs for a PSY-OP to capitalize on. In fact, the phrase "Flying Saucer" hadn't even been invented yet, and it would be several more years before the word UFO came into use. At best, they might be trying to capitalize on the 1938 War of The Worlds broadcast, but that is very unlikely because that was responsible for creating public panic, the last thing you'd want to do if you were trying to cover something up. The theory that some secret PSY-OP group used an alien crash story to cover-up some other secret project is very weak.

The PSYOPS I refer to has nothing to do with when AFOSI got started. The PSYOPS I refer to was started by AFOSI in the late 1970's and on into the 1980's. The whole story was fabricated and planted into Bill Moore's Roswell, and everyone else that fell down that Rabbit Hole with the same ideas.

Something was covered-up in 1947 unless this was planned for the USSR to somehow be fooled on. I don't claim to know exactly what the cover-up is, since most of it is still classified and lost to history, imo.

I just think Jacques Vallee and Nick Redfern -and Greg Bishop, Mark Pilkington, Gabe and Greg Valdez, Bennewitz, Doty, Collins provide "proof enough" that something else likely happened vs the AFOSI ET-UFO crash.

Don't you think Jacques Vallee might know something we don't know??? I do!

 

[Heidi Lemmer]

Why should you get heartburn? Seriously. PLEASE understand we're just having some friendly debate.

I can't understand why Constance has put me on ignore, when I just wanted her honest commentary about what Vallee said. [She implied I might be misrepresenting what he was suggesting.] Then she got mad at me for merely stating what Kevin Randle said what Stanton Friedman had confided in him, and it was not just "gossip" or single source -it had directly to do with PSYOPS'ing Roswell witnesses too.

Look, Heidi, what probability do you assign for ET-UFO to travel light years to Earth and crash near a Military Test Range and the only Atomic Weapons Base on planet Earth vs Humans doing it???

Have you heard of the Drake Equation -I think you have, but you need to start applying that concept to how ET gets to Earth traveling light years but crashes on planet Earth vs NOT crashing!

I would estimate there is no more than one in a ten thousand chance that ET crashes IF their science is only a hundred years more advanced than ours. IF their science is a million or more years advanced than ours, then the chances of ET crashing is about one in a trillion or less.

Now, factor in to the above:

What is the likelihood that ET crashes [vs Humans] near the Human military's most top secret base on planet Earth???

My guess is the chances of that happening are about one in a million (easily could be a billion or more), so just let's just "underestimate" and multiply that million number to the above numbers and you get:

1) A one in Ten Billion Chance to:
2) A one in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance...
or one in a million x a trillion chance!

THOSE ODDS ARE SHEEIT to start with, and that does not even account for other odds that will lower this equation even further to be MUCH less likely!

So Heidi, why shouldn't I be Highly Skeptical of AFOSI's explanation vs those odds above??? Wink.

There could be any number of reasons why a craft , not from this planet, might crash. Natural interference, microwave, radar, human interference, etc. Why at a military site? Why not? All of these , at this time, are pure speculation. You can't be in this hobby without speculation I'm also not stuck on one species. Taking in the most common sighting accounts it seems logical that several species may be roaming the skies. As to the Drake equation, here also we speculate. What if some of these species are only 50, 75 yrs older than us. We went from horse to Moon is relatively short time. We assume , based off reports, that all these sightings include insane speeds, zig zagging through the skies, yet a percentage of reports are of slow moving craft, huge crafts, cigar shaped crafts. When deciding to send robots to Mars we had to revamp our entry to allow for a whole new set of variables. It could have easily have failed. We're new to the game. Whats to say that other species aren't also new to the game.

 

[DissectionStalker]

As to the Drake equation, here also we speculate. What if some of these species are only 50, 75 yrs older than us. We went from horse to Moon is relatively short time.

But, once again, go back to the ET-drake equation. Only 50-75 years more advanced than us? What are the odds ET or Humans would even be able to travel light years here in biology bodies???

Those odds are much much worse than what I already gave, though I did speculate at least 100 years more advanced than we are now -and that is still highly optimistic and unlikely too! That's only a One in Ten Billion Chance of that happening and crashing.

Plus, you have to consider the other part of the equation that takes into account the likely Human causes for Roswell instead. That's where the odds really blow-away any likely possibility this is ET-UFOs.

It is common practice for the Military to engage in PSYOPS, and according to James Carrion the military was doing this already with Ghost Rockets and the flying skipping saucers just weeks before Roswell too. Think about it! WHY did Kennith Arnold say the saucers skipped like a rock skipping across a pond of water???

Think about it some more now...

WHY are there ZERO reports of flying saucers doing that "skipping across water" today too!?!?!???

Answer: PSYOPS.

 

[Ufocurious]

I like DissectionStalker. I consider him a virtual friend. He is hard headed though But I consider that good, because it is when someone challenges our thoughts and ideas, we think harder and that is always good.
I myself never cared too much about Roswell and Varginha because of the military interference. I prefer to study cases with living witnesses. Unlike many people, I tend to believe is stories told by people who are not pathological liars to begin with. Weird things happens, and we don't have rational explanations for them. Sometimes the "rational explanations"are worse than the paranormal or fantastic. And I like to live in a planet that has room for the unexplained. As one of our posters here says, stuff that seems like magic today may be science tomorrow.

 

[Randall]

The PSYOPS I refer to has nothing to do with when AFOSI got started. The PSYOPS I refer to was started by AFOSI in the late 1970's and on into the 1980's.

OK let's suppose you didn't mean that they actually created the ET-UFO crash at the time the incident happened in 1947, and instead you mean that they planted disinformation, "in the late 1970's and on into the 1980's" for the purpose of creating bad ufolore around the Roswell Incident. If that were the case, then what they were doing was resurrecting the original "crashed disk" story that had occurred decades earlier and that virtually everyone had already forgotten about in order to cover-up whatever it really was all over again. Sorry, but that makes no sense. They would have been further ahead to simply let sleeping dogs lie.

That being said, it seems like there has been some kind of funny business going on, but exactly what I don't know. Maybe Stan and/or a few others created the MJ-12 documents to see if they could generate enough controversy to shake something out of the system, like perhaps some kind of disclosure. IMO, if that's what it was, it was a brilliant move.

On the other hand, if it was a secretly sanctioned disinformation campaign, then the plan ( apparently ) was to make it all look legitimate and then discredit it later to make it look like the whole story is hogwash. If that's the case then it suggests that what they were attempting to cover-up is the very thing they were trying to discredit, which again is the crashed disk story, which means that they resurrected the crashed disk story to cover-up the crash disk story, which also makes no sense.

Or we might assume that the disinformation wasn't intended to cover-up the crashed disk story, but to keep the real story about some other secret project from getting out. If that's the case, then why create a sensational story that every conspiracy theorist around will be drawn to and then attempt to discredit it? By doing that, all they're doing is alerting people that there was a real incident and that they should keep looking for the real cause, which would be exactly what they don't want people to start doing. So again that motive makes little sense.

What else might we assume? Maybe some crafty disinfo agents in training dreamed it all up in order to make their academy grade. I don't know. But if that were the case one would think that the truth about it would have come out by now. Keeping a secret like that from everyone in your class, including those who dropped out, and for decades. That just doesn't seem reasonable.

Whatever it was, none of us were there when it came out of the sky, so none of us can say with any degree of certainty exactly what happened. Personally I find the story very interesting from all angles and it makes for great ufolore. But ultimately, even if it were proven to have been some kind of hoax, it wouldn't cause me change my view on the reality of alien visitation.

 

[Ufocurious]

DissectionStalker
Off the top of my head, 2 reasons for UFOs crashing:

Time travelling gone bad.
Ets or intraterrestrials living on underground bases - their smaller ships are not that good According to witnesses in Varginha the crashed UFO was small like a minivan.