Ok, let's try to crunch some numbers.
The various values of significance seem to develop as follows over the duration of the video with my current understanding what those signify and what units they use (please correct me if you interpret them differently), and converted to SI units to ease calculations:
time: 220-254 seconds
laser rangefinder distance to target: 4.4-3.3 nautical miles (8149-6112 meters)
closing velocity (relative speed to rangefinder target): 220-150 knots (113-77 meters/second)
calibrated airspeed 252-258 knots (130-133 meters/second)
altitude 25000-25010 feet (7620 meters)
sensor aimed 35-58 degrees left of aircraft axis, 43-58 degrees during target locked
sensor aimed 22-35 degrees below aircraft axis, 26-35 degrees during target locked
from 220-237 seconds aircraft close to level (within 5 degrees), then mostly around 15 degree left turn
field of view: NAR, Zoom factor 1.0, apparently 1.5 degree FOV
Vertical distance from aircraft to target at the beginning and end of tracking:
sin(26 degrees)*8149m = 3572m
sin(35 degrees)*6112m = 3506m
Edit: We can probably get a bit better estimates if we assume normal rounding rules and look at those moments when the rangefinder estimates just changed from 4.4->4.3 and 3.5->3.4. In both cases the angles also changed quite soon after, so we can assume something like .4 for them. With those, the estimates would be:
sin(26.4 degrees)*8056m = 3582m
sin(34.4 degrees)*6390m = 3610m
Making it even more probable the object stayed pretty much at constant altitude, at around 7620-3600=4020m.
Which means the altitude is pretty constant and around 4100 meters from sea level. That's definitely not "very low over the water" as the TTSA claims!
With a 1.5 degree FOV, the area the view covers (horizontal and vertical) at those rangefinder distances is:
It's tricky to see how many pixels that tiny blob takes on the screen as the video quality isn't that good. The object seems to be somewhere close to 2-3 meters relative to that view size, but it's so blurry it's hard to say. In any case, it doesn't seem to be anywhere close to what the Nimitz tic tac was, just like I initially suspected.
Initially when the camera is pointed 44 degrees left, and the jet is moving at 130m/s, the horizontal speed of the jet towards the target is:
Since the camera is pointed 26 degrees down, the overall speed towards the target is:
At the end with camera 58 degrees left, 35 degrees down, the horizontal speed towards the target would be:
And overall speed towards it:
Closing velocity should indicate how fast the objects are closing each other:
Calculate closing velocities
So the rangefinder indicates they are closing in each other at 113-77 m/s, and the portion of the jet going towards the target is 84-58 m/s, which means the target speed towards the jet is 29-19 m/s.
The target is on the left side of the jet at 43-58 degrees, and the angle seems to increase and distance decrease even when the jet is turning a bit towards the right at one point. So it seems the jet is about to go past it and starts to turn towards it. Everything seems to indicate it's actually going quite slowly.
Seems like those at Metabunk as well "Dr. Emil Schaffhausen" on the YouTube comments of that video have come to similar conclusions as I above. That is, the object is actually flying high and slowly, and is quite small. I also have to agree with Metabunk that balloons (if only we knew the wind direction) and large birds would be plausible explanations. That means, the TTSA really dropped the ball on this one, claiming it's flying low and fast. And they were supposed to have learned from past mistakes...