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Pentagon UFO Study - Media Monitoring


MrBeliever

Paranormal Maven
He is using the CAS speed, while in reality he should be using the TAS speed, which is actually around 370 kt.
We already established that neither CAS nor TAS would be in a useful frame of reference due to winds potentially reaching 200 knots at 25000 ft, not to mention the unknown effect of temperature and moisture on the sensors, which are calibrated for sea level and "normal" conditions.

I would go as far as to say the video was selected specifically because it did not allow anyone to determine the capabilities of either aircraft. Maybe we'll never get a clear saucer picture, because the footage is so incredibly valuable from a military perspective. They may not be US machines, but we don't want our adversaries to benefit from the releases either.
 

Realm

Paranormal Adept
We already established that neither CAS nor TAS would be in a useful frame of reference due to winds potentially reaching 200 knots at 25000 ft, not to mention the unknown effect of temperature and moisture on the sensors, which are calibrated for sea level and "normal" conditions.
We have already established TAS is the sensible reference frame since it gives the best available baseline estimate we have from the actual data, and since the calculations are based on relative differences between altitudes of 4 and 7 kilometers, ground speeds or winds there do not really matter. But you just don't listen.

I would go as far as to say the video was selected specifically because it did not allow anyone to determine the capabilities of either aircraft. Maybe we'll never get a clear saucer picture, because the footage is so incredibly valuable from a military perspective. They may not be US machines, but we don't want our adversaries to benefit from the releases either.
Keep believing your conspiracy theories, and I will keep looking at the data we actually have, and what math actually shows.
 

Realm

Paranormal Adept
I took another look at Metabunk, and Mick there has raised some of the same issues I mentioned, and I now remember I also noted those in my initial reactions on his calculations on March 12 here already:
Pentagon UFO Study - Media Monitoring

But the interesting bit is this, that I hadn't noticed:
He used the composite screenshot from TTSA which had 4.1 RNG at 22°
So that's why Maccabee used that nonsensical combination of range and angle! He didn't look at the video while it was playing, but a composite still image made by the TTSA.

What a great idea from the TTSA to try to make the case that those videos are unmodified originals, and then create a fake composite frame showing a combination of values that do not exist in the video and once again result in such confusion!

If they wanted to show all the indicator values on their explanations, they could have simply chosen one of the many real frames that had all those.
 

MrBeliever

Paranormal Maven
But "most sensible" doesn't make your results any less bogus than Maccabee's. They're not even scientifically sensible. Why not pick initial wind values and a turning radius that makes the object faster than any bird? Because that result can clearly be reached with assumptions that are equally arbitrary to the ones you decided on.
 

Realm

Paranormal Adept
But "most sensible" doesn't make your results any less bogus than Maccabee's. They're not even scientifically sensible. Why not pick initial wind values and a turning radius that makes the object faster than any bird? Because that result can clearly be reached with assumptions that are equally arbitrary to the ones you decided on.
Same old broken record... You really don't understand what is being calculated, do you?

I already showed Maccabee doesn't even calculate the right thing. It's your problem if you don't understand that from the explanation I just gave.

And yes, it is the scientifically right thing to do to calculate what the available data allows to establish the baseline which also allows evaluations of possible effects of winds. There are no "arbitrary assumptions" in those calculations.

And as I have said numerous times, it doesn't matter what the absolute wind speeds are, only the relative difference between 4km and 7km. Even if the wind was 1000mph to the same direction on both of those altitudes, the result would be exactly the same, it would have affected both objects in the same way, it would reflect their performance characteristics the same way.

When it comes to the turning radius, that is simply calculated with a standard equation that is based on actual physics, and it is in good agreement with NATOPS manual for the F-18. It's not assumed or picked, it's calculated, from real data. I have already explained that to you too, but you just don't listen.

I am not the one making assumptions, you are, you are trying to make all sorts of assumptions that would allow you to deny the fact that based on all the available data, the object wasn't interesting at all. There's absolutely no data that in any way indicates it did anything interesting, or that it would be anything out of ordinary. These calculations have proven the assumptions TTSA has made about the object speed and altitude are simply wrong, plain and simple.

Your only hope to make that target seem out of ordinary in any way is to establish the exact time and place of that event and wind speeds at altitudes of 4 and 7 kilometers, and show that they were significantly different and to directions that would make the speed of that object fall outside the boundaries of birds and balloons. Good luck with that. Good luck finding such data for any similar case. Unless you can do that, what I have calculated is the best available information we have, and that is based on the best available data we have, that sets the baseline and contains the minimum amount of assumptions.

And this will be the last time I will explain this same thing to you.
 

Constance

Paranormal Adept
Even if the wind was 1000mph to the same direction on both of those altitudes, the result would be exactly the same, it would have affected both objects in the same way, it would reflect their performance characteristics the same way.
Wondering how you can be sure of that without actually knowing/understanding the performance characteristics, capabilities, of the unknown object?
 

Realm

Paranormal Adept
Wondering how you can be sure of that without actually knowing/understanding the performance characteristics, capabilities, of the unknown object?
I'm calculating relative speeds between two objects, which are "contained" in the air, and if that air that contains them is moving in the same way for both of them, it doesn't make that much difference in that relative calculation. It's about the same as calculating the (relative) walking speeds of two people that walk on the street vs. two that walk the same way inside a moving train. The latter are still people with their regular performance, even though their "ground speeds" can be 100 mph+.

If we nitpick on the details, both planes and birds can for example compensate the effects of winds coming from the side in different ways, affecting their forward speeds in a somewhat different manner and and so on, but since we don't know the details of those winds in any case, that is a smaller uncertainty than the difference in relative wind speeds anyway.

The important part to understand is that the calculations are not based on any assumptions in any significant way, just raw data, and they give pretty accurate results where pretty much the only significant unknown variable left is the relative difference of wind speeds at 4 and 7 kilometers. Since that is not known, what we have is the baseline which basically assumes there's no difference, no matter the absolute wind speeds relative to the ground. Since we don't have the wind data, there's no reason trying to assume the difference would happen to be the kind that would just happen to make the speed of the object large, instead of just making it smaller.
 

MrBeliever

Paranormal Maven
Since we don't have the wind data, there's no reason trying to assume the difference would happen to be the kind that would just happen to make the speed of the object large, instead of just making it smaller.
Huhuh. If you could apply that logic to the rest of your calculations, I might just take your analysis seriously.
 

DROBNJAK

Paranormal Adept
The important part to understand is that the calculations are not based on any assumptions in any significant way, just raw data, and they give pretty accurate results where pretty much the only significant unknown variable left is the relative difference of wind speeds at 4 and 7 kilometers. Since that is not known, what we have is the baseline which basically assumes there's no difference, no matter the absolute wind speeds relative to the ground. Since we don't have the wind data, there's no reason trying to assume the difference would happen to be the kind that would just happen to make the speed of the object large, instead of just making it smaller.
@Realm's calculations are rock solid, within very small +/- 5% error margin. They are basically derived from very simple, and thus unfailable, geometry and Pitagora's theorem. There is no reason to doubt his conclusions. As well, there is no need to know performances of the two objects, since all the distances are measured by laser rangefinder on the plane.
 

Realm

Paranormal Adept
Huhuh. If you could apply that logic to the rest of your calculations, I might just take your analysis seriously.
If that sentence made any sense, I could take you seriously.

You still don't seem to understand those calculation don't require any special logic, assumptions or choices in values. It's simply instrument values seen in the video as inputs, equations that turn those into coordinates relative to the starting point, and the result is a graph of jet and target trajectories.
 

Realm

Paranormal Adept
They are basically derived from very simple, and thus unfailable, geometry and Pitagora's theorem.
Yeah, and it really only takes one simple calculation to prove the claims and assumptions TTSA made about that third video are wrong:

Altitude of the target = 25000 feet - sin(26 degrees) * 4.4 nautical miles

All those values are straight from the video from the moment the target is locked (the results are very close to same regardless of which point of the video you choose to use to calculate that). Converted to meters:

Altitude of the target = 7620m - sin(26 degrees) * 8149m = 4048m

That's really all it takes to show that the fundamental assumptions TTSA and apparently those pilots made are simply wrong, and those incorrect assumptions of low altitude and high speed supposedly made this video somehow mysterious. It just lost all that with a simple equation. Those more complicated calculations just show how badly they were wrong, in increasing accuracy, but that altitude alone is disastrous enough for TTSA and this case. If only any of them would have done that simple calculation before publishing this thing, they could have avoided a major embarrassment. But apparently nobody did, which reveals nobody analyzed this. Since Elizondo was the one who arranged this to be published, it's pretty obvious he or AATIP (what was left of it at the time) didn't really analyze it either.

TTSA really needs to take the responsibility for that blunder now. They have to admit they are making claims that are mathematically impossible from the information they themselves are handing out. It's one thing to make a mistake, but a whole lot worse to not admit it. Let's see how long it takes for them to do that.

Alternatively, they could try to divert the conversation to something else, like this:
ATACAMA SKELETON INVESTIGATION

What does that have to do with anything? Well, Nolan tries to makes some loose links to TTSA, but considering the above, and how he has been active spreading those incorrect claims, he is hardly the right person to state these words:
For me, it underscores why I was excited to be a part of To The Stars Academy. I know the others on the team share my dedication to using good science for the study of biological issues and physical phenomena that mainstream science to date has ignored. Like Ata… there will be lessons, and hopefully we’ll be able to turn those lessons around to create things and understandings that benefit everyone. It starts by asking, “What is that?” It continues by stating… “I can understand that.” It concludes by actually doing it.
Good science? How about trying some elementary math first. Phenomena mainstream science has ignored? What was that supposed to be? Genetics? What? And speaking of lessons, I was one of those who tried to give him one, let's see if he has learned anything from that, and if he is able to teach that to the rest of the TTSA team, and if they are men enough to do the right thing.
 
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Realm

Paranormal Adept
Also in the news, interview of Harry Reid, where he tells some interesting details:
Harry Reid on What the Government Knows About UFOs

I’m in Washington in the Senate and Bob Bigelow called me — I kept in touch with him over the years. He called me and he said, “I got the strangest letter here. Could I have a courier bring it to you?” I said, “Sure.” He didn’t want to send it to me over the lines for obvious reasons.

I read the letter. The letter was from a federal national-security agency. Okay? The letter said, “I am a senior, longtime member of this security agency, and I have a Ph.D.” — I can’t remember in what, in physics for sure, maybe math also. “And,” the letter said, “I’m interested. I’m interested in talking to you, Mr. Bigelow. I have an interest in what you’ve been working on. I want to go to your ranch in Utah.”
...
Very low-key scientist. He told me of his interest. I called Bigelow and I said, “This guy, I’ve checked him out and he seems like a pretty nice guy and his credentials are as he says.”

He went, met Bigelow, and after I don’t know how much time went by, he came to me and said, “Something should be done about this.
Somebody should study it.” I was convinced he was right. I said, “Well, if you were me, what would you say to people in power in the United States Senate who have huge control over the spending of defense money?” And here’s what he said: “What I will do is prepare something for you that anyone can look at it that wants to, it’s strictly science.” He put it in scientific language — what the study should consist of.

I, at the time, was the leader of the Senate, and I called two of my friends who for many, many years were like brothers. One a Democrat, one a Republican. They controlled for quite a number of years the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee. It was Stevens and Inouye.
So who is that scientist? I guess that doesn't quite match to Puthoff or Davis?

What we decided to do — it would be black money, we wouldn’t have a big debate on the Senate floor over it. They would put in their defense appropriation bill, 11 million bucks. The purpose of it was to study aerial phenomena. The money was given, a directive was given to the Pentagon, to put this out to bid, which they did.

People may be inquisitive: “How did Bigelow win that bid? Why?” Because he had spent his own money first. For two years, the federal government helped him. Thousands of pages were gathered, just like I told you, of things that had happened. There was no central location where all this stuff was gathered — that’s what he did. He built his building for it. For two years, when we got financial help — but there was a change in leadership and it didn’t work. So the federal government dropped out of the project.
So Reid seems to say they had funding only for two years, not five. And it seems that building, famous for those supposed "mystery materials", was mostly for storing documents they gathered (probably mostly from existing archives).

What kind of bidding was that exactly if Bigelow won that because of spending money? How did they arrange that bidding if it was all so secret? Who competed with Bigelow?

Let me give you something that the press has totally failed and conjured. We have hundreds and hundreds of papers, pages of paper, that have been available since this was completed. Most all of it, 80 percent at least, is public. You know something? The press has never even looked at it. Not once. That’s where we are. I wanted it public, it was made public, and you guys have not even looked at it.

So, in short, it’s my belief you guys kind of want to be spoon-fed.
Available where? The press is currently trying to get FOIA responses to get even a single piece of paper by the AATIP.

Read the reports. Read the reports. We have hundreds. Eric; two, three weeks ago, maybe a month now, up in Montana, they had another strange deal at a missile base up there. It goes on all the time.
So is he talking about just any papers that have something to do with UFOs, or those that have something to do with the AATIP? Didn't he just arrange $22 million of public money to be spent investigating those reports? Did they get real results and pick out the good stuff? Shouldn't the press and public get the results from that $22 million of their money, instead of him complaining why the press haven't investigated data they are not even given?
 
Also in the news, interview of Harry Reid, where he tells some interesting details:
Harry Reid on What the Government Knows About UFOs

So who is that scientist? I guess that doesn't quite match to Puthoff or Davis?
Consider the time frame. This has to be 2007 when Harry Reid became the House Majority leader after the 2006 elections put the Democrats in the majority during Bush the Younger’s term.

So it can’t be Puthoff or Davis. Recall that Eric Davis worked for NIDS from 1996 until NIDS demise in 2002. And Puthoff and Bigelow go back at least to the demise of Project Stargate in 1995 when Puthoff needed new funding and connected with Bigelow to form NIDS.

Would be very instructive to go back and re-read Recluse’s blogpost about Bob Bigelow to get more of the context:
VISUP: Fringe: The Strange Dealings of Bob Bigelow
 

Realm

Paranormal Adept
Consider the time frame. This has to be 2007 when Harry Reid became the House Majority leader after the 2006 elections put the Democrats in the majority during Bush the Younger’s term.

So it can’t be Puthoff or Davis. Recall that Eric Davis worked for NIDS from 1996 until NIDS demise in 2002. And Puthoff and Bigelow go back at least to the demise of Project Stargate in 1995 when Puthoff needed new funding and connected with Bigelow to form NIDS.

Would be very instructive to go back and re-read Recluse’s blogpost about Bob Bigelow to get more of the context:
VISUP: Fringe: The Strange Dealings of Bob Bigelow
This has significant similarities:
In the past we received confirmation that anomalous mental and paraphysical phenomena continue to elicit high interest with scientists associated with Bigelow and the U.S. intelligence community. One highly placed source confirmed that the strange events investigated by Las Vegas businessman Bob Biglow’s employees (Bigelow Aerospace, the National Institute of Discovery Science) had been discussed at government sponsored meetings on the threats of emerging technologies.

In 2006, author Gary S. Bekkum contacted a former CIA official familiar with the ranch.

“There have been some informal discussions of ‘telepathy’ (as in direct mind to mind communication of meaning) and I have pointed out that your associate, Dr. Eric Davis, has discussed ‘telepathic messages’ received by a physicist at the Skinwalker Ranch in Utah.
...
In 2006, we publicly connected a former senior CIA official associated with Bigelow to a Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) threat warning scientific advisory group.

The TIGER committee followed from a DIA report on the threat of surprise advances in weaponized technology. One source, a TIGER committee member, hinted that more than human threats are of concern. Apparently we struck a bit of a nerve when we publicly mentioned the TIGER committee, and comments made by our source that otherworldly phenomena had been a topic of discussion between TIGER members. We pointed out that any discussion, formal or informal, added a certain air of authenticity to the strangeness reported by veteran reporter George Knapp of bizarre events alleged to have occurred at the Skinwalker Ranch in Utah.
...
Dr. Davis noted that he was a personal associate of our source, and confirmed that the ranch had been the topic of informal discussion by committee members.

Our source claimed Skinwalker had been discussed, “ad nauseam,” suggesting more than brief, polite dinner conversation. We also received an intriguing email from Dr. Davis, stating that one of the physicists studying the phenomena at Skinwalker Ranch had received a warning in the form of a powerful, “telepathic” message.
Skinning the Skinwalker: Secrets of Bob Bigelow’s spooky Utah ranch | STARpod US

Since AATIP was a DIA program, it would make sense someone from DIA, who was connected to Bigelow, would have got the ball rolling. That someone may have been part of the AATIP team, even leading it before Elizondo.
 
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Here’s something that I think is important with this story, but nobody’s mentioned it yet: if TTSA was the shameless kind of money-grab organization that many people have accused them of being, they would’ve gone commercial with all this stuff, like the “Alien Autopsy” hoaxers did, or the appalling “Roswell Slides” jokers did. But they didn’t – they just gave us everything for free.

In fact I just checked out all four of the videos they have on their YouTube channel – and they’re not even monetized: we don’t even have to watch a commercial for 5 seconds in order to see these video clip releases. They have over 8 million views that they easily could’ve monetized.

Every dollar they’ve brought in has been on a totally voluntary basis. I think it’s insane that anyone has a problem with any of this.
 

Realm

Paranormal Adept
Here’s something that I think is important with this story, but nobody’s mentioned it yet: if TTSA was the shameless kind of money-grab organization that many people have accused them of being, they would’ve gone commercial with all this stuff, like the “Alien Autopsy” hoaxers did, or the appalling “Roswell Slides” jokers did. But they didn’t – they just gave us everything for free.

In fact I just checked out all four of the videos they have on their YouTube channel – and they’re not even monetized: we don’t even have to watch a commercial for 5 seconds in order to see these video clip releases. They have over 8 million views that they easily could’ve monetized.

Every dollar they’ve brought in has been on a totally voluntary basis. I think it’s insane that anyone has a problem with any of this.
You really are missing the whole scheme. Monetizing content with fees or ads would be just normal business, but this is way worse.

First of all, they do have ads, they just advertise themselves. Their clips begin with texts advertising how that content is exclusive to them, how they supposedly have the CoC documentation, which we still haven't seen, they have put their big logo on top of the actual videos, and at the end is a big ad for themselves and link to their page, which is selling investments. They are not sharing the actual original clips, which wouldn't have been recompressed and hence losing detail with additional artifacts, most likely because those wouldn't have their ads in them. They are prioritizing their marketing over the accuracy and quality of the evidence.

Secondly, they don't exactly have the kind of content they could sell. The actual original videos are shorter than many ads. Plus the one that is actually from a significant event has been publicly and freely available for more than a decade, and really, in a more original form, not having TTSA ads or anything. If they had actually made people to pay for the "Go Fast" video for example, it would be time for refunds, since they have marketed it with obviously false information.

If they actually cared for the information they are handing out, they would have corrected such gross errors by now. The main purpose seems to be just content marketing, and why else would they also publish Nolan's Atacama skeleton stuff, which has little to do with the TTSA?

Like all roads lead to Rome, all they have done seems to lead to them selling so called investments. That's the first thing on their front page. Their COI pages have a big "Invest now" button and link to their offering circular at the bottom. Their "join us" and "get involved" links lead to investments, both on their main and COI pages. Their main page is publishing new content under the heading "Investment updates". When people have tried to ask them questions through their contact form, instead of actual responses, they responded with advertising investments. Sure, it's voluntary to actually invest, but so are investments in pyramid schemes.

The real problems begin when we look at how those investments are actually priced ($5 for book value of $0.003) and used. We find DeLonge giving himself big guaranteed royalties for business that is actually losing money. We find DeLonge giving himself loans between his own businesses, with interests to pay, and at least most of that money has little to do with TTSA, at least half of it was already loaned between his entertainment businesses before TTSA even existed. He loaned money to himself, and expects investors to pay it back, with interest. Those loans are fittingly due at the end of this years, right after the current investment period ends. Then there's the issue of collecting the money in this stupid way, causing expenses as high as 25% of all that is collected, by their own estimates.

Let's try to calculate how much they are in the hole by the end of this year from those alone:

Loans + interests (2016-2018): ~$680,000
Minimum royalties (2017,2018): 2x $100,000
Expected offering expenses: $250,000+

That's -$1,130,000 already. No wonder their minimum target was a million.

How about their core and only business really, entertainment, does that help? Let's look at their past performance (from the Offering Circular):
As a result of the foregoing factors, the company’s net loss from operations was $422,670 in 2016, a 31% increase from losses of $322,912 in 2015.
Maybe they have done better in 2017? Let's look at their semiannual report for the first half of that year:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1710274/000114420417065376/tv482047_1sa.htm

Cash used in operating activities was $151,651 for the six months ended June 30, 2017, as compared to cash provided by operating activities of $18,014 for the six months ended June 30, 2016. The change was primarily due to higher net loss, partially offset by higher non-cash expenses.
We have an accumulated deficit at June 30, 2017 of $26,248,900. We expect to incur substantial expenses and generate continued operating losses until we generate revenues sufficient to meet our obligations. At June 30, 2017, the Company had cash of $70,784. The Company is currently raising additional funds through a Regulation A offering to finance its operations.
The accompanying financial statements have been prepared on a going concern basis, which contemplates the realization of assets and the satisfaction of liabilities in the normal course of business. The Company has incurred losses from operations and has an accumulated deficit at June 30, 2017 of $26,248,900. These factors raise doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.
Oh dear, doesn't look too good, but luckily they have some gullible investors ready to rescue them. The majority of those insane deficits seems to be because of those shares and options they have given to themselves, as if those were free, which they pretty much have been for them, not to the investors, who are really just mocked with acts like that. I'm not familiar with those bookkeeping practices and if those are typically recorded like that.

Anyhow, if they have continued to make similar kinds of losses for 2017 and 2018, they would be on target to need closer to two million just to get to the zero level. But hey, they already have $2.5 million of investment money, so not a problem, right? I wouldn't count on it, as I'm suspecting much of it isn't actually real, but that's another story. Also, at the moment for example, comparing their counters to what they were 10 days ago, they have actually lost both money and investors.

On several occasions, I have raised the question why didn't they make a fresh start as a new non-profit without all these shady connections to existing businesses (which would have been free to donate some money to the non-profit if they wanted, and actually had some). But the answer looks to be pretty apparent now: A new business would had to start from zero, now they can start from -$26,248,900, and counting, due to being stuck with old businesses causing losses.

Anyone who still believes they have resources to do some unrealistic research, or that their nonsense would be attracting actual serious academics and such, hasn't really followed what is actually going on with that sham of a company. For all that I can see, it's not about entertainment funding UFO research, as some true believers seem to think, it's about gullible UFO enthusiasts funding failing entertainment, including paying for significant losses DeLonge has incurred in the past.
 

MrBeliever

Paranormal Maven
Don't forget that operating at a loss is highly desirable; this will actually allow the business to dodge significant taxes in its first year. If the business fails, of course, it does mean Delonge might get to erase the debt, but it hardly betrays "money-grabbing" intentions.

If you believe his passion is genuine, there's no reason to think that he's betting against his own venture.
 

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