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India Buys IMF Gold (200 metric tons) to Boost Reserves as Dollar Drops

cottonzway

I was saying boo-urns
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aa6oc6Wz9Ftg

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- India, the world’s biggest gold consumer, bought 200 metric tons from the International Monetary Fund for $6.7 billion as central banks show increased interest in diversifying their holdings to protect against a slumping dollar.

The transaction, equivalent to 8 percent of world annual mine production, was the IMF’s first such sale in nine years and propels India to the ninth-biggest government owner globally, according to figures from London-based research company GFMS Ltd. The country previously held 358 tons, the data show. The news was a “surprise because everybody was talking about China being the buyer,” said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

“The fall in the U.S. dollar seems to be pushing all the central banks to strengthen their portfolio with gold,” said N.R. Bhanumurthy, professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi. “Gold is a safe store of value compared to the U.S. dollar.”
Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.2 percent to $1,061.48 an ounce at 1:20 p.m. in London and was less than 1 percent below its record $1,070.80 an ounce reached Oct. 14. India purchased the gold at an average price of about $1,045 an ounce, according to an IMF official on a conference call.

IMF Finances

The IMF sale accounts for almost half the 403.3 tons that the Washington-based lender in September agreed to sell as part of a plan to shore up its finances and lend at reduced rates to low-income countries. Asian nations, which have amassed stockpiles of foreign currency reserves since the 1998 financial crisis, have shown increased interest in diversifying out of U.S. assets as the dollar loses value against other currencies.

“The most important thing is that people want gold even at these prices,” said Ghee Peh, head of mining research, with UBS AG in Hong Kong. “There’s good support for prices for now” from the IMF’s disposal of bullion, he said.

The transaction involved daily sales from Oct. 19 to Oct. 30 at market prices and is in the process of being settled, the IMF said in a statement yesterday.

The purchase didn’t signify any loss of confidence in the dollar, nor did it show that the metal’s appeal was increasing, India’s Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said.

Loans to Poor

Proceeds from the sales and other IMF resources as well as individual contributors would help pay for discounted interest rates on loans to low-income countries, the IMF said in July. It plans to grant as much as $17 billion in extra loans to poor nations through 2014. The 403.3 tons the IMF agreed to sell amount to 1/8 of its stockpile.

Suresh Tendulkar, an economic adviser to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, said in an interview in July that he was urging the government to diversify its foreign-exchange reserves and hold fewer dollars. China and Russia have also stepped up calls for a rethink of how global currency reserves are composed and managed.

“There seems to be consensus among the central banks that it’s better to cut down on currency holdings and diversify into assets like gold, which has upside potential,” Krishna Reddy, a precious metal analyst at Way2Wealth Commodities Pvt., said in Mumbai. “The Reserve Bank of India gold purchase is a clear reflection of this belief.”
More Sales

Russia, China or Brazil may buy the rest of the IMF gold for sale, said Moore from the TheBullionDesk.com.
China, the world’s biggest gold producer, has increased reserves of the metal by 76 percent to 1,054 tons since 2003 and has the fifth-biggest holdings by country, Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said in April.

The nation may purchase some of the 403.3 tons of gold being offered by the IMF, Market News International reported in September, citing two unidentified government officials.

“It’s more or less certain that government of India expects the U.S. dollar to weaken,” said Suresh Hundia, president of the Bombay Bullion Association Ltd., in an interview today. The purchase is “not so much about India betting gold prices will increase but that the dollar will fall. They are looking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves.”
India’s foreign-exchange reserves advanced $684 million to $285.5 billion in the week ended Oct. 23, the central bank said Oct. 30. That included foreign-currency assets of $268.3 billion, gold reserves of $10.3 billion and the special drawing rights with the IMF.

Off-Market Transactions

The lender has said it is ready to sell directly to central banks and later make transactions on the open market if necessary. The IMF official declined to say yesterday whether other central banks have expressed interest in purchases.

Given the “well-publicized concerns of many central banks over the level of their exposure to the U.S. dollar, further off-market transactions must be a clear possibility,” Aram Shishmanian, chief executive of the World Gold Council in London, said in a statement.
The IMF, which helped shore up economies from Pakistan to Iceland over the past year, has sold gold on several occasions. The last transaction was authorized in December 1999 and took place off-market between then and April 2000.

“Gold production has been declining for the past seven years, while demand, particularly the investment demand, has been growing steadily,” Way2Wealth’s Reddy said. “Central banks and even ordinary investors want to own more gold.”
 
Hi Cottonzway,

I really appreciate your posts, always very informative and interesting and this is not a criticism of your post in any way just an observation, but it never ceases to amaze me that everything has to be built on the value of what seems to me to be a pretty, yet not very useful metal.

I admit I am ignorant on such matters but I just dont get it.

Mark
 
Hi Cottonzway,

I really appreciate your posts, always very informative and interesting and this is not a criticism of your post in any way just an observation, but it never ceases to amaze me that everything has to be built on the value of what seems to me to be a pretty, yet not very useful metal.

I admit I am ignorant on such matters but I just dont get it.

Mark


Mark,

The main reason gold and silver are valuable is that mankind has decided it to be throughout history. Gold has been used as a unit of money since the Babylonian empire and it's still valued today. It was a somewhat arbitrary decision (although gold does not lose its luster or oxidize over time) but its pretty much universal. Gold is valued everywhere in the world today and will be for the foreseeable future.

Small amounts of gold and silver are used in industry, dentistry, and jewelry, and they are tangible substances that do not rot, decay, or spoil and represent physical labor required to obtain them (unlike paper fiat currencies which are simply pieces of paper with arbitrary numbers on them) For the past several hundred years the value of gold has remained relatively unchanged and is not subject to effects of inflation or debasement as paper currencies are since, by definition, gold cannot be created out of thin air whenever desired and the amount that is mined every year is roughly balanced out by its removal from the market due to industry etc.

So ancient man could have decided that meteor fragments were ultra-valuable and based money off of them, but as history would have it they chose gold and silver (and a few other precious metals to a lesser extent)
 
Thanks DamnDirtyApe,

I am aware that gold has some practical uses, it's just that I find it somewhat amusing that we still feel we have to attach value to something so trivial imo.
It's like the reaction Magpies display over bright shiny things and leaves me thinking we are still very far away from being truly grown up as a civilization.

I realise I may sound somewhat naive and silly but it's just an opinion.

Mark
 
There is a real fear that the dollar will fail or lose value more than it has already. If you print money when you have nothing to back it up with, then the value of your currency will devalue. So countries with vast deposits of dollars are simply buying up other currencies like the Euro for their dollars, because in the end, they believe the Euro will be stronger than the dollar in the long run. And the buying of Gold by countries is just another way of securing your own countries well being, when the dollar as the reserve currency ceases to be or loses the strength it once had.

As for little known fact, one of the reasons for Bush invading Iraq was that Saddam wanted to stop dealing in dollars and wanted to sell his oil in Euros. The White house was well aware of this at the time before the invasion and for Saddam to do this, would create real problems in the world oil economy. Roll on today..Iran and Saudi Arabia are seriously looking at changing from the dollar to the euro. This would cause real economic problems for America if they let is happen, would they let is happen? or go to war to stop it?
 
It's like the reaction Magpies display over bright shiny things and leaves me thinking we are still very far away from being truly grown up as a civilization.

Mark

It's worse, the magpies didn't get duped with paper rectangles like we did!!

We associate value, with desirability - not with its application or requirement.
Gold, is a luxury commodity - its appealing to look at, and not easily tarnished, most corrosive resistant and predominantly in scarce supply with increasing demand.
This commodity is also enhanced by enticing people (culturally) to subscribe to it.
The same is done with most other goods - cars, dvds, cd's, blackberries and mobile phones. Cosmetics is the key to marketing.

Water, is an essential commodity, having multipurpose uses yet due to its abundance supply and saturation of demand is effectively valued cheaply.

Paper dollars on the same reasoning, is also cosmetic - and it's value is associated with people "believing" in it. Consequently, as people feel less reason in believing in it, its value falls and the quantity demanded decreases as people switch to other 'solid' substitute commodities/currencies on there individual demand and supply curves.

Warren Buffet, is going against this general feeling and is buying big amounts of cheap dollars (through market stock) in the likelyhood that the fear will subside and will catapult in profits on pricing elasticity. Buying gold now at highs is more risky than buying dollars at lows in my opinion - India might catch a cold here.

I would hedge the risks, shorting on commodities that will capture a dollar reversal and also have propensity to fall in value if the recession deepens - i.e. a good that people are prepared to do without in preference of essential commodities as there income constraints become more limiting.
I'm positioning against cocoa - despite supply problems, seems too technically overpriced given similar supply problems in past.
 
Water, is an essential commodity, having multipurpose uses yet due to its abundance supply and saturation of demand is effectively valued cheaply.

Water is a little more than that - it's what humans absolutely, positively need to survive, fresh water is in far more of a precarious position than being in "abundant supply", and in the US, bottled water sold in stores is more costly than gasoline. It's well understood that in the coming years, access to fresh water is going to become a HUGE factor in global politics, due to it's value and scarcity.

dB
 
Water is a little more than that - it's what humans absolutely, positively need to survive, fresh water is in far more of a precarious position than being in "abundant supply", and in the US, bottled water sold in stores is more costly than gasoline. It's well understood that in the coming years, access to fresh water is going to become a HUGE factor in global politics, due to it's value and scarcity.

dB
Anyone with two buckets, some clay-soil and activated-charcoal can have clean drinking water. I filter rainwater to avoid gunking up my synapses with fluoride.
As far as metals go, I'm waiting for silver to hit 12 bucks an ounce, and then I'm in with half my savings. I believe the dollar-index is being held artificially high until the next bubble is fully inflated. When the next one pops, I don't want to be stuck holding nothing but paper.
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Anyone with two buckets, some clay-soil and activated-charcoal can have clean drinking water. I filter rainwater to avoid gunking up my synapses with fluoride.
As far as metals go, I'm waiting for silver to hit 12 bucks an ounce, and then I'm in with half my savings. I believe the dollar-index is being held artificially high until the next bubble is fully inflated. When the next one pops, I don't want to be stuck holding nothing but paper.
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but fluoride is good for your teeth! :eek: are you one of the conspiracy nuts?
 
Anyone with two buckets, some clay-soil and activated-charcoal can have clean drinking water. I filter rainwater to avoid gunking up my synapses with fluoride.
As far as metals go, I'm waiting for silver to hit 12 bucks an ounce, and then I'm in with half my savings. I believe the dollar-index is being held artificially high until the next bubble is fully inflated. When the next one pops, I don't want to be stuck holding nothing but paper.
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I bought all my Silver at 11.. I'd love to see it at 12 again so I could back up the truck.
 
Students of the Elliot Wave Principal (based essentially on Austrian ecomomic theory) believe there will be an approximate year long rally in the dollar soon. I'm not student enough to understand their thinking, but I'm watching just to see if they're correct. They tend to forecast well into the future, but the dollar rally isn't expected to last. Just another bubble eventually.

This gold rally is probably another bubble. Keynesian economics relies on bubbles. Were I holding bonds, I'd be worried too. No safe place.

Which leads me to believe that the fat cat bankers and Wall Street Robber Barons have garnered enormous bonuses in order they survive a depression in the best possible circumstances, rich beyond measure compared to the rest of the population. Whoever said robbery wasn't profitable?
 
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