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The Russians WILL save us
- Thread starter David Biedny
- Start date
jkoci
Watcher of the Skies
dusty
Skilled Investigator
Glad to hear somebody's taking this kind of threat seriously. Seems like it's only a matter of time before one of these things actually impacts.
Also the assurance that nukes might not be needed is good to know.
Along the lines of what's been said about nuclear tests being a possible reason for our visitors. I dread to think what their use in space might provoke.
Ivan's really not crazy you know
Mark
Also the assurance that nukes might not be needed is good to know.
Along the lines of what's been said about nuclear tests being a possible reason for our visitors. I dread to think what their use in space might provoke.
Ivan's really not crazy you know
Mark
Kevin Daly
Skilled Investigator
Not sure I follow that. Who would give a damn if we used nukes in space?Glad to hear somebody's taking this kind of threat seriously. Seems like it's only a matter of time before one of these things actually impacts.
Also the assurance that nukes might not be needed is good to know.
Along the lines of what's been said about nuclear tests being a possible reason for our visitors. I dread to think what their use in space might provoke.
Ivan's really not crazy you know
Mark
dusty
Skilled Investigator
I dont actually know Kevin,
However if there were anything to the notion that the nuclear tests carried out in the past were a red flag to whoever might or might not be out there. Personally I think it wise not consider their use. After all, it might not be just our space.
The other thing is, and please understand I am not particularly up to speed with the
realities of such an idea, but if nukes were used and either this or some other object were blown apart surely the fragments might themselves create yet another threat.
Mark
However if there were anything to the notion that the nuclear tests carried out in the past were a red flag to whoever might or might not be out there. Personally I think it wise not consider their use. After all, it might not be just our space.
The other thing is, and please understand I am not particularly up to speed with the
realities of such an idea, but if nukes were used and either this or some other object were blown apart surely the fragments might themselves create yet another threat.
Mark
Kevin Daly
Skilled Investigator
One thought strikes me: if Apophis will be coming close to Earth but probably won't hit it, then they'd better have a very good idea what they're doing before whacking anything into it, in case they create the problem they're trying to avert.
'Cos,you know, while it would present an excellent teachable moment (an excuse to tap Alanis Morissette on the shoulder, point at the sky and say "see, that's ironic), my enjoyment of this would possibly be dampened by the inconvenient End of The World aspect of the situation.
This is not a reflection on the Russians (the successful de-orbiting of Mir compares very favourably with dropping half of Skylab on Australia, for instance), but simply an acknowledgement of the fact that any human undertaking carries a significant risk of being a major cock-up, so when the stakes are "everything" extra caution is advised.
'Cos,you know, while it would present an excellent teachable moment (an excuse to tap Alanis Morissette on the shoulder, point at the sky and say "see, that's ironic), my enjoyment of this would possibly be dampened by the inconvenient End of The World aspect of the situation.
This is not a reflection on the Russians (the successful de-orbiting of Mir compares very favourably with dropping half of Skylab on Australia, for instance), but simply an acknowledgement of the fact that any human undertaking carries a significant risk of being a major cock-up, so when the stakes are "everything" extra caution is advised.
Schuyler
Misanthrope
Actually, I suspect they would be cool with it. I've never quite understood why ETs (as in the ETH) would care if Earth was messing with nukes, unless they are unusually altruistic and want to 'save us.' After all, space is filled with billions of nukes all over the place. The only thing that makes sense to me is if the ETs share our space somehow (as in the IDH) and that nukes are a threat to them.
Ron Collins
Curiously Confused
Yeah, I kinda see your point. At first I thought that maybe they would detonate the nuke close enough to let the shock wave push the rock into a different trajectory. But I don't know how a shock wave would propagate in space. I think o f sound waves needing matter to propagate and figure that the shock wave would need similar matter. But, I am afraid that this line of thought is way past my level of expertise.
Personally, I am in favor of not using nuclear bombs in space at all. Though not for the sake of offending ET. It just seems like a door we shouldn't open. Space is, as far as we know, a demilitarized zone and I think we should keep it that way.
Though, if some space faring species saw us using our technology to "save ourselves" from being destroyed by a big rock using nukes to blow it up. My hope is that they would either not be upset or intervene before it got to that.
As a hypothetical, that would be a very cool way to introduce yourself to a planets population.
cottonzway
I was saying boo-urns
* insert Yakov Smirnoff joke*
The Asteroid Prophecy begins December 22, 2012.
Seriously though, use of the moon and outer space is not something that is very well established by all the space faring nations. I wonder how we will ever sufficiently deal with all the varying goals and missions that differing nations desire. Does anyone know of anything addressing this?? What if one country wants to send out something to deflect an asteroid and another says "don't do that, you might mess it up".
Along the same lines, what about planet mining, colonization, and whatever else?? These are issues that will creep up sometime relatively soon. But based on human history, it's probably "whoever gets there first". Or, "I know you were here first, but now this is mine."
Seriously though, use of the moon and outer space is not something that is very well established by all the space faring nations. I wonder how we will ever sufficiently deal with all the varying goals and missions that differing nations desire. Does anyone know of anything addressing this?? What if one country wants to send out something to deflect an asteroid and another says "don't do that, you might mess it up".
Along the same lines, what about planet mining, colonization, and whatever else?? These are issues that will creep up sometime relatively soon. But based on human history, it's probably "whoever gets there first". Or, "I know you were here first, but now this is mine."
aNorthernSoul
Professional Breather
Meh, at this point I say "let nature run its course...."
Kevin Daly
Skilled Investigator
I think that's a very good point. In issues of this kind it will be increasingly clear that actions taken by one nation may affect all of humanity, for good or ill, so it's reasonable for everyone to want a say.
I don't want to raise the hackles of the NWO conspiracy nutters (Oh come on, you know who you are
), but taking effective and sensible action against threats to the entire species requires that we act as a species, not as a collection of silly little nation states pursuing narrow agendas. Which in turn requires an informed global citizenry.And just in case there's anyone I haven't offended yet this month: the thing we'll need to get our heads around is that nations are cultural artefacts. Only humanity is objectively real, we stand together or fall separately (yeah I know that's a huge diversion and I don't want to hijack the thread, so start a new thread to flame me on if it helps).
skunkape
Paranormal Maven
They'll probably be playing 'Gorky Park.' Bang! Skee-dat-da-da-da.
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DanielBrenton
Jack of All Trades, Master of 1 or 2
Okay -- let's think about this.
There's a neat little page at the University of Arizona website called the "Earth Impact Effects Program." Assuming the assumptions these physicists set up here are correct (this is an assumption, I confess, because I am neither a physicist nor an engineer) this gives us some food for thought.
Here I've given the links to a couple of results of this program. I'm sticking to the 270 meter (887 feet) diameter given to us in the article David Biedny linked, verified by the Wikipedia page here.
My assumptions:
Since this object is a near-Earth asteroid (has an orbit that does not range far from the Earth's, is not tilted significantly from the Earth's, and has a year only about a month shorter than ours), I'm assuming the impact velocity is in the 10 miles per second range. (Any math geeks out there, feel free to correct me.)
I don't know Apophis' density (I'm not sure anyone does), so I'm assuming the default value of "dense rock." It appears that a lot of asteroids may be little more than big clumps of dust that have accumulated like interplanetary dust bunnies because of the action of gravity over huge amounts of time, but let's be conservative here and make it a big hunk of rock.
Impact angle = 45 degrees. (An arbitrary choice -- splitting the difference between coming straight down and a glancing blow as it heads on by.)
And, of course, I'm assuming it comes down on land, on sedimentary rock.
Here's what the program gives me -- an impact explosion of 840 megatons. If I'm a mile away from impact, I'm actually in the crater, which means I'm vaporized.
But ... if we successfully blow this thing into pieces that are only one quarter the diameter, there is an airburst of 13.8 megatons as the object breaks up at about 10,000 feet, with possibly some fragments hitting the ground.
No, I wouldn't want to be under that, but you I hope you catch my drift.
I'm for pulverizing it with nukes. As many as practical.
P.S., 1/3/2010 -- I expanded on this commentary and posted it on my blog here.
There's a neat little page at the University of Arizona website called the "Earth Impact Effects Program." Assuming the assumptions these physicists set up here are correct (this is an assumption, I confess, because I am neither a physicist nor an engineer) this gives us some food for thought.
Here I've given the links to a couple of results of this program. I'm sticking to the 270 meter (887 feet) diameter given to us in the article David Biedny linked, verified by the Wikipedia page here.
My assumptions:
Since this object is a near-Earth asteroid (has an orbit that does not range far from the Earth's, is not tilted significantly from the Earth's, and has a year only about a month shorter than ours), I'm assuming the impact velocity is in the 10 miles per second range. (Any math geeks out there, feel free to correct me.)
I don't know Apophis' density (I'm not sure anyone does), so I'm assuming the default value of "dense rock." It appears that a lot of asteroids may be little more than big clumps of dust that have accumulated like interplanetary dust bunnies because of the action of gravity over huge amounts of time, but let's be conservative here and make it a big hunk of rock.
Impact angle = 45 degrees. (An arbitrary choice -- splitting the difference between coming straight down and a glancing blow as it heads on by.)
And, of course, I'm assuming it comes down on land, on sedimentary rock.
Here's what the program gives me -- an impact explosion of 840 megatons. If I'm a mile away from impact, I'm actually in the crater, which means I'm vaporized.
But ... if we successfully blow this thing into pieces that are only one quarter the diameter, there is an airburst of 13.8 megatons as the object breaks up at about 10,000 feet, with possibly some fragments hitting the ground.
No, I wouldn't want to be under that, but you I hope you catch my drift.
I'm for pulverizing it with nukes. As many as practical.
P.S., 1/3/2010 -- I expanded on this commentary and posted it on my blog here.
DanielBrenton
Jack of All Trades, Master of 1 or 2
Dateline: MOSCOW – Russian Space Agency Chief Anatoly Perminov denies rumors that a planned mission to destroy the Earth-grazing asteroid Apophis was inspired by its uncanny resemblance to former U.S. President George W. Bush.
