The Psychology of Egotistical Belief & Overconfidence

[exo_doc]

Here are some excerpts from an article in the April 2013 issue of ID Magazine (ID stands for Ideas and Discoveries) entitled "Overconfidence-Ego Trips of the Brain".

I think these following statements have a direct bearing on how the thinking works for uber-skeptics and uber-true believers alike;

1. Overconfidence blocks the ability to look critically upon our own mistakes.
2.When mistakes happen, the brain tries to "explain them away" in order to be able to hold on to the established view.
3.For example, Professor Kevin Dunbar, professor of Neuroscience at the University of Toronto demonstrated the world-view guarding reaction using the example of Stanford University biochemists.
Professor Dunbar accompanied them to work and regularly witnessed falsified perceptions generated by overconfidence: When an experiment produced unexpected results, researchers were quick to blame measurement errors. If it still didn't work, the results were ultimately completely ignored.

So..........does this mean both extremes of belief/non-belief of just about anything result from egotistical overconfidence (at least to some major degree)?
Are we ALL guilty of latching on to what seems to confirm our world view, ...and discard or ignore what seems to disagree with it?

More on this: On Overconfidence § SEEDMAGAZINE.COM

 

[Michael Allen]

it makes sense--if a researcher has been working in the field for a long time and they are running a routine check (not all things labeled "experiments" are merely a check for something truly novel) and suddenly one experiment fails to replicate something that has been cataloged in great detail, its reasonable to blame the measuring devices or methods used. "Ignoring them" sounds like an flawed assumption based on a small window of time--researchers more likely ticketed the item as an anomaly to debug and troubleshoot later--no one likes inconsistencies--watch the film of the JPL technicians testing the mars lander parachute and you will see what really happens when something is inconsistent. Engineers hate inconsistencies and they will hunt them down to the ends of the earth.

 

[Randall]

I think these following statements have a direct bearing on how the thinking works for uber-skeptics and uber-true believers alike;

1. Overconfidence blocks the ability to look critically upon our own mistakes.
2.When mistakes happen, the brain tries to "explain them away" in order to be able to hold on to the established view.
3.For example, Professor Kevin Dunbar, professor of Neuroscience at the University of Toronto demonstrated the world-view guarding reaction using the example of Stanford University biochemists.
Professor Dunbar accompanied them to work and regularly witnessed falsified perceptions generated by overconfidence: When an experiment produced unexpected results, researchers were quick to blame measurement errors. If it still didn't work, the results were ultimately completely ignored.

So..........does this mean both extremes of belief/non-belief of just about anything result from egotistical overconfidence (at least to some major degree)?
Are we ALL guilty of latching on to what seems to confirm our world view, ...and discard or ignore what seems to disagree with it?

More on this: On Overconfidence § SEEDMAGAZINE.COM

This behavior can and does go beyond just ignoring the evidence to the contrary. It extends to irrational personal attacks, and let me emphasize the word irrational here. Not all personal attacks are irrational. Some are warranted. But that can be a tricky business and one can find themselves on the other end of the barrel if they're not careful. Online, the attacks take the form of insults or slights on character. A common one is for the one in denial to claim the person who has provided the contrary evidence is in some way deficient.

The deficiencies leveled usually revolve around the person who has presented the evidence having a lack of faith or intelligence. Sometimes it also includes elements of irrational mockery and ridicule. Again I stress the word irrational. Some mockery and ridicule is legitimately funny, but these people don't know the difference and they don't care if it hurts. In fact they want it to hurt. But perhaps the most perfectly ironic example are those who turn the whole thing around and accuse the person who has presented valid counterpoint of being the one who is egotistical, arrogant, and pompous.

Having said all that, although I've been the target of many such attacks, I'm not perfect either. Though I do my best to be balanced and not fling back anything that isn't deserved, sometimes I've gone too far in pressing a point, thinking I was justified in doing so simply because I knew I was correct, and for what it's worth, I pay for that. I don't like hurting people and if I unintentionally cause someone pain, I feel that pain too and I always wish there was a way to take it back without losing the ground gained in what I perceive to be a noble quest toward truth.

As for me being proven wrong. I look forward to it. It's how progress is made. I don't believe I've ever been in a state of denial when presented with solid facts, and I've eaten my fair share of crow. That's one of the main reasons why I try so hard to avoid being wrong. I guess the real irony is that being right or wrong doesn't always guarantee how we're going to feel about the outcome. Is it truly a victory if we do everything right or succeed in illuminating some truth, but we feel hollow or sad as a result? Is that suffering some kind of cross those who engage in this quest must bear? Should we bear it with honor or disgrace? Who decides? I think a most important point in the article you mentioned is:

"Political and economic overconfidence are therefore all the more important because they are more likely to be misplaced and yet also to have implications for millions. We may not be able to eliminate this bias in our decision-making, but it is crucial that we understand it and reset our institutions accordingly if we are to shake our long record of self-imposed disasters."

And to close ... One more from PBS ...​

 

[Randall]

5 Faces of the Female Covert Narcissist​

 

[Randall]

 

[Burnt State]

Ok so we can talk vaccines here then, Randall?

You stated overwhelming evidence of the Covid vaccine being bogus and that means the whole cabal of the WHO, medical science, governments and the entire pharmacological empire from CEO to Pharmacist were all in on duping the planet into taking a vaccine for profits because their health effects were negligible? Isn't the the stuff that the people at They lied.ca like to spout?

I see these folks in neighbourhoods across the province turning their front yards into billboards and warning signs of how stupid everyone else is and that we can have freedom from fear etc. I just don't buy it.

I won't attack you outright, but I think some levity is important because I find the entire anti-vaccination discussion simply challenging to believe. As mentioned previously, this discussion has too many ties to WN. I find nationalism in general to be problematic for the most part, so any racist, fascist ideology I see to be extremely troubling. This is on the rise globally and I see it very much interwoven with the general dumbing down of the populace by telling them they've been uninformed all these years about everything; your medical institutions are actually out to get you, so don't take Tylenol or you'll get autism. Come on now....

Impact of Covid Vaccines

Is this stuff just all lies and it's a big conspiracy?

 

[Richard Hawkins]

Ok so we can talk vaccines here then, Randall?

You stated overwhelming evidence of the Covid vaccine being bogus and that means the whole cabal of the WHO, medical science, governments and the entire pharmacological empire from CEO to Pharmacist were all in on duping the planet into taking a vaccine for profits because their health effects were negligible? Isn't the the stuff that the people at They lied.ca like to spout?

I see these folks in neighbourhoods across the province turning their front yards into billboards and warning signs of how stupid everyone else is and that we can have freedom from fear etc. I just don't buy it.

I won't attack you outright, but I think some levity is important because I find the entire anti-vaccination discussion simply challenging to believe. As mentioned previously, this discussion has too many ties to WN. I find nationalism in general to be problematic for the most part, so any racist, fascist ideology I see to be extremely troubling. This is on the rise globally and I see it very much interwoven with the general dumbing down of the populace by telling them they've been uninformed all these years about everything; your medical institutions are actually out to get you, so don't take Tylenol or you'll get autism. Come on now....

Impact of Covid Vaccines

Is this stuff just all lies and it's a big conspiracy?

I think Randall's next project is to convert us all to flat earth theory.

 

[Burnt State]

I think Randall's next project is to convert us all to flat earth theory.

Now that, along with the hollow earth theory, could in fact be a very rich discussion given the amount of related historical material.

 

[DeltaLitProf]

5 Faces of the Female Covert Narcissist​

Any word what brought this on?

 

[Randall]

Ok so we can talk vaccines here then, Randall?

I think you meant to say "so we can't talk vaccines here" . . . because I've already been through that with Gene at length — and his position was made clear to me in no uncertain terms. His answer was "No", and given his condition, I don't feel that it's appropriate to carry on a discussion here that he'd find upsetting when he's already feeling down. However, you can always get in touch with me personally. A few good books have since been written that covers most of it fairly well. But of course, you'd have to actually read them, just like you'd actually have to have listened to Joe Rogan's interview — and judged it on the actual content — not some biased partisan criticism of his broadcasting style.

 

[Randall]

Any word what brought this on?

I've been reviewing this topic in my personal life lately, and because I'd started posting here again, I thought the vid might become a topic of interest. Nothing more than that. Here's another one . . . Learn about DARVO

 

[Richard Hawkins]

I've been reviewing this topic in my personal life lately, and because I'd started posting here again, I thought the vid might become a topic of interest. Nothing more than that.

Very good. Anyhow glad you are posting again and good to hear your thoughts even if it is only in print.

 

[Randall]

Very good. Anyhow glad you are posting again and good to hear your thoughts even if it is only in print.

Hey thanks — it's purely by coincidence, and I don't expect it to last, but who knows?
If whoever has the say would be more sympathetic toward the First Amendment here, as well as more aligned with the protection of individual civil liberties — particularly bodily autonomy regardless of collectivist ideology, perhaps I could be more than an occasional dissident participant

 

[Richard Hawkins]

Hey thanks — it's purely by coincidence, and I don't expect it to last, but who knows?
If whoever has the say would be more sympathetic toward the First Amendment here, as well as more aligned with the protection of individual civil liberties — particularly bodily autonomy regardless of collectivist ideology, perhaps I could be more than an occasional dissident participant

Look I have already told Gene that you and him should kiss and make up. I don't agree with everything Gene says and I don't agree with a lot of what you say. However I like you both and living in Northern Ireland I come from a time when you had to agree to disagree with some of your friends or you would simply be dead.
I don't want you to stop posting here because weither or not I agree with you but I do respect you.
One other thing if we all agreed about everything the world would be a boring place. Stay safe Randall.

 

[Randall]

Look I have already told Gene that you and him should kiss and make up. I don't agree with everything Gene says and I don't agree with a lot of what you say. However I like you both and living in Northern Ireland I come from a time when you had to agree to disagree with some of your friends or you would simply be dead.
I don't want you to stop posting here because weither or not I agree with you but I do respect you.
One other thing if we all agreed about everything the world would be a boring place. Stay safe Randall.

Thanks for sharing your perspective and how it relates to your history in Ireland. Being a Murphy, I was once approached by a recruiter for a wing of the IRA here in Canada. I told them that the reason we came here is to get away from all that, and the last thing we need is to bring it here. I don't want to see anyone physically suffer — even my enemies.

But at the same time I don't believe in the "agree to disagree" mentality. To me it's a copout. People should have the wherewithal to hash things out in a constructive manner — not simply deny and censor. That's for authoritarians — people who resort to the use of power rather than open & fair-minded discussion — with a view to establishing the truth.

When that fails, I certainly don't advocate violence, but I have no problem with people ( including me ) disengaging and doing their own thing with more like-minded people — which is what I've been doing. FWIW, I'd have no problem hashing out what you perceive to be our disagreements. To me they represent the opportunity for us both to learn something new. Nobody ever did that by agreeing with each other all the time.

 

[Richard Hawkins]

Yea Randall I am lucky to be able to see both sides of the story. My deceased wife's family were totally republican however I was lucky I came from parents who were socialist and so that did matter. I don't believe in organised religion and I believe everyone should have a voice but I think we should all be able to get on

 

[Richard Hawkins]

Thanks for sharing your perspective and how it relates to your history in Ireland. Being a Murphy, I was once approached by a recruiter for a wing of the IRA here in Canada. I told them that the reason we came here is to get away from all that, and the last thing we need is to bring it here. I don't want to see anyone physically suffer — even my enemies.

But at the same time I don't believe in the "agree to disagree" mentality. To me it's a copout. People should have the wherewithal to hash things out in a constructive manner — not simply deny and censor. That's for authoritarians — people who resort to the use of power rather than open & fair-minded discussion — with a view to establishing the truth.

When that fails, I certainly don't advocate violence, but I have no problem with people ( including me ) disengaging and doing their own thing with more like-minded people — which is what I've been doing. FWIW, I'd have no problem hashing out what you perceive to be our disagreements. To me they represent the opportunity for us both to learn something new. Nobody ever did that by agreeing with each other all the time.

By the way Randall there is no such country as Ireland. There is the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. From 1522 until 1722 Ireland was a territory of Britain just like Guaham in the USA. From 1722 until 1922 all of Ireland was part of the United Kingdom. Now the Rebels who fought in the 1500s and 1800s (who were mostly protestants) were not the same people who blew pregnant women and others to pieces in the 70s. Those people flew Hammas flags on 9/11 and they continue to fly them today in support of Palestine

 

[Randall]

By the way Randall there is no such country as Ireland. There is the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. From 1522 until 1722 Ireland was a territory of Britain just like Guaham in the USA. From 1722 until 1922 all of Ireland was part of the United Kingdom. Now the Rebels who fought in the 1500s and 1800s (who were mostly protestants) were not the same people who blew pregnant women and others to pieces in the 70s. Those people flew Hammas flags on 9/11 and they continue to fly them today in support of Palestine

Good points. I just tend to refer to the island rather than the political divisions. I keep hearing about how beautiful it is there. It saddens me that there's been such violence — but that's nothing new for most human civilizations ( it seems ). Apparently my surname ( Murphy ) means "sea warrior" ( lol ), and my other side is from Denmark ( Vikings ) — I'd have never survived it had I been born in the first millennium there. I barely survived the tail end of the peace movement and disco ( lol )

 

[Richard Hawkins]

Good points. I just tend to refer to the island rather than the political divisions. I keep hearing about how beautiful it is there. It saddens me that there's been such violence — but that's nothing new for most human civilizations ( it seems ). Apparently my surname ( Murphy ) means "sea warrior" ( lol ), and my other side is from Denmark ( Vikings ) — I'd have never survived it had I been born in the first millennium there. I barely survived the tail end of the peace movement and disco ( lol )

Well you would of survived because the people here both North and South are kind decent people. An you my friend are welcome here anytime and have a place to stay. Then you can come to the Giants causeway were hundreds of years ago 9ft red haired people roamed.