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The Fermi Paradox

I can see both your points of view. I completely understand the 'arrogance' answer brought up by several folks. I am also well aware of ethnocentricism and anthropomorphism. I have been inculcated with those ideas by virtue of a very liberal education--in anthropology, initially, where they are treated as gospel. Woe be unto any student of anthropology who dares to make a value judgement about another culture! (Sidenote: I'm a contemporary of Obama's Mama, also an anthropology student. I could easily have dated her kid sister. She grew up less than 20 miles from me. I sure knew a lot of people just like her at the U-Dub.)

However, I think we have to work with what we've got, i.e.: what we (think we) know about the Universe. There may very well be 'other realities,' whether they be some sort of other dimension or something we haven't thought of, but we DO know there is THIS reality, the one we live in, and we've been able to find out some interesting facts about it. We've physically been to the Moon and vicariously been to most other planets in the solar system. We've also discovered planets in other star systems, so many that it appears likely planets are fairly common.

We've also discovered a few facts about our own planet, including the fact that there are six billion of us all over the globe in several thousand cities, all emitting light and energy. We take thousands of airplane flights a day and travel millions of miles in vehicles. We emit clear across the electromagnetic spectrum at all levels. We are VERY noisy. Though our technology may not be as advanced as a civilization thousands of years ahead of us, it is still largely a technological civilization. I do not believe it is arrogant to suggest that if someone else is here, they would know we are here, too. We're pretty hard to ignore. I also believe that it is in the nature of intelligence to be curious. In fact, it is a survival factor. Predators, on the whole, are the most curious of all.

Now, the Fermi Paradox is very much an outgrowth of the ETH. That's what Fermi (1901-1954) had in mind when he came up with it. Given when he lived that is not surprising. Alternative hypotheses were not as popular as they are today. I don't happen to be a proponent of the ETH, but given that context, I think you can come to some conclusions.

1. They might be ignoring us on purpose. If there are not very many of them, that would be a practical consideration.

2. They might be subject to the Prime Directive. If we could think that up, so could they.

3. That speed-of-light light thing might be real. Perhaps they can't get here. Whether that is 'on purpose' or not, who knows?

What I'm suggesting here is that the argument that we are ants to their vast intellect, or that they are so advanced that they don't care to deal with us are not very good answers. Ants didn't come up with E-MC(2) or fly to the Moon. That might be true, of course. It would be foolish to arbitrarily discount it entirely.

But I doubt it.
 
Now, the Fermi Paradox is very much an outgrowth of the ETH. That's what Fermi (1901-1954) had in mind when he came up with it. Given when he lived that is not surprising. Alternative hypotheses were not as popular as they are today. I don't happen to be a proponent of the ETH, but given that context, I think you can come to some conclusions.

1. They might be ignoring us on purpose. If there are not very many of them, that would be a practical consideration.

2. They might be subject to the Prime Directive. If we could think that up, so could they.

3. That speed-of-light light thing might be real. Perhaps they can't get here. Whether that is 'on purpose' or not, who knows?

Regarding number 3 schuyler, I read this article recently on a team of scientists who sent radio waves faster than light...Who says rules aren't in place to be broken?
http://www.universetoday.com/2009/06/30/device-makes-radio-waves-travel-faster-than-light/
 
Key point here:

It CANNOT be answered at this point in time on anything based on well tested evidence.

The Fermi Paradox's legitimacy is therefore founded entirely on the notion that if we can't prove it NOW it doesn't exist.

Which is of course, absurd.
 
Key point here:



The Fermi Paradox's legitimacy is therefore founded entirely on the notion that if we can't prove it NOW it doesn't exist.

Which is of course, absurd.
Like I said, it's a very simple question, and if an answer was right in front of us, then I'm sure the paradox would disappear completely and cease to be an issue. But of course the question stands at this point in time, that is not absurd. If I said it would never, or could never be solved then you can accuse me of making an irrational statement. All I'm saying is that we should give the argument some wieght simply due to the fact that it can't be solved at the moment. Don't hold it as gospel - just an interesting little question which makes us think and inspires us to refute it. That is what good science is all about
 
Looking for a little thread revival here.

Some new results, mostly strengthening, but some weakening the Fermi Paradox, and reasonable persons still disagree. Of course, some people think there is no "Fact A," that we have in fact been visited, but the ground rule is to assume that this is not the case. I don't think many folks will claim it is an established scientific fact.

Some of the strengthening:
  • We are starting to home in on the number of habitable planets in the galaxy and the numbers are staggering. It may well be in the 10s of billions. Geoff Marcy's group was the most recent to publish something for sun-like stars.
  • Duncan Forgan's result that gravitational assist could be used to speed up interstellar travel, assuming we started off slow enough.
  • Daniel Cartin's results that you wouldn't have to travel terribly far to build a network of colonies.
  • Theoretical work that suggests that where life can originate, it will (sorry no citation, but I will track that down).
Weakening:
To me, the most interesting question is not "why the paradox," or even "is it really a paradox," but "how can we learn more?" The truth is, we don't know nearly enough to resolve the Fermi Paradox, and that is one of its great values - to drive and inspire research. Some of this research wil be theoretical, like Cartin's or Forgan's, but mostly we need big whomping infrared telescopes that will make the James Webb telescope look like a toy. We are generation or two away from that, but in the meantime we can continue looking over the SETI search space.
 
Looking for a little thread revival here ... To me, the most interesting question is not "why the paradox," or even "is it really a paradox," but "how can we learn more?" The truth is, we don't know nearly enough to resolve the Fermi Paradox, and that is one of its great values - to drive and inspire research. Some of this research wil be theoretical, like Cartin's or Forgan's, but mostly we need big whomping infrared telescopes that will make the James Webb telescope look like a toy. We are generation or two away from that, but in the meantime we can continue looking over the SETI search space.
Excellent post PCarr. When you say we don't know nearly enough to answer the question that Fermi's Paradox poses, you are absolutely right. Plus there are other problems. Fermi's Paradox relies on the assumption that the life in his model will evolve and colonize and survive to remain evolutionarily concurrent with their original descendants, and that alone isn't a reasonable assumption. Interstellar distances are so great the by the time a colonization ship reaches its destination, the civilization they were launched from may no longer exist. The other major problem is denial. This usually takes the form of demanding verifiable and scientifically valid material evidence for UFOs ( alien craft ), and dismissing any other evidence as insufficient, when in fact, if we consider what is reasonable to believe, a certain amount of the non-scientific evidence for alien visitation is more than sufficient to justify belief.
 
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