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New World: Climate Change

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It is time to realize that there is a tradeoff between "quality of life" and "quantity of life." In a planet with limited resources -- sustainable growth is an oxymoron. Of course humanity could all shift to vegan diets, forgo national parks and crowd in a few more billion people, hoping that new levels of efficiency will allow us to survive. But it is well to ask if this really is the kind of world that we want? There is much we can do to reduce the suffering caused by human population growth. But recognizing that overpopulation is a perilous problem constitutes a critical first step

Overpopulation Is Still the Problem | Alon Tal
 
15 years is really freaky!!! Where are those 15 year scenarios?

We need a countdown clock for the 15 years to "check off" the signs as each year passes.

That would certainly get media attention... like the... how many minutes to nuclear destruction clock.

Freaky, yes. I'll supply some links to that over the weekend. Trippy - and so hard to get one's mind around really.

Mike, thanks for the links and exposition. I have some thoughts. I'll post more on this over the weekend.
 
Freaky, yes. I'll supply some links to that over the weekend. Trippy - and so hard to get one's mind around really.
Thank you very much, as I really am just loving this "clock idea".

First off, the public has this concept down for decades now, and, also, there could be a lot more media debate and hype/interest generated to have COMPETING CLOCKS TOO.

Each clock has its own science and set of proofs to look for. I think it's an extremely useful tool. Especially, since we're in the sound bite and 128 character text age.

Something simple and eye-catching to get one's attention, the countdown, but backed by the predictive science and set of proofs to look for. So, details can easily be found and learned.
 
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The remarkable thing is that the real cause of global warming is rarely mentioned.

It is the elephant in the room. Everyone can see it but no one wants to speak about it, presumably because this subject is a contentious one and challenges the core beliefs of many religions.

The undeniable fact is that we, the human race, are the cause of our own difficulties and unless we reduce our numbers, we will self-destruct.

We blame the increase in livestock numbers as one reason for climate change while refusing to acknowledge that the true cause is too many people consuming rapidly depleting resources.

Over-population is the real cause of climate change – it's killing us all off - Independent.ie
 
Now a review of nearly 200 research articles reveals how population growth is being downplayed and trivialized by scientists despite its fundamental and negative role in the areas of employment, public debt, human welfare, extinction of species, and climate change. “More than one billion people live in extreme poverty and hunger, and ecosystems are losing species at rates only seen in previous mass extinction events,” wrote Camilo Mora, assistant professor of Geography in the College of Social Sciences at University of Hawaii at Manoa.

“The issue of population growth has been downplayed and trivialized among scientific fields, which may in part account for the reduced public interest in the issue and in turn the limited will for policy action.” His sobering review appears in Ecology and Society.

With evidence mounting “that overpopulation is a common denominator” to many environmental and socioeconomic issues, “tackling population growth could deliver not only beneficial but also long-term resolutions to a wide range of pressing issues,” Mora wrote

Overpopulation Negatively Affects Everything From Climate Change To Health Care
 
David Attenborough - Humans are plague on Earth
Humans are a plague on the Earth that need to be controlled by limiting population growth, according to Sir David Attenborough.

humans are threatening their own existence and that of other species by using up the world’s resources.
He said the only way to save the planet from famine and species extinction is to limit human population growth.
“We are a plague on the Earth. It’s coming home to roost over the next 50 years or so. It’s not just climate change; it’s sheer space, places to grow food for this enormous horde. Either we limit our population growth or the natural world will do it for us, and the natural world is doing it for us right now,” he told the Radio Times.
Sir David, who is a patron of the Population Matters, has spoken out before about the “frightening explosion in human numbers”

David Attenborough - Humans are plague on Earth - Telegraph


The Optimum Population Trust (OPT) believes Earth may not be able to support more than half its present numbers before the end of the century.
In a statement released on the organisation's website, Sir David, 82, said: "I've seen wildlife under mounting human pressure all over the world and it's not just from human economy or technology - behind every threat is the frightening explosion in human numbers.

"I've never seen a problem that wouldn't be easier to solve with fewer people, or harder, and ultimately impossible, with more.
 
See Post#4 (on page 1 of this thread) for the November 2014 summary of extreme weather events.

This is the December 2014 summary of extreme/unusual weather events -

SOTT Zusammenfassung, Dezember 2014: Feuerbälle, extremes Wetter und Erdveränderungen
TEXT: "Published on Jan 11, 2015: [Translation] Mother Nature was apparently determined to end 2014 with a bang ; more extreme weather and earth changes in December. Snowstorms burying cities in Russia's Far East and Northeast China , where a waterfall on the Yellow River partially froze . Japan was hit by record snowfall for the second time in a year, during severe cold in North India at least 150 people committed suicide.

"A week of uninterrupted electrical storms brought hail, flooding and extensive damage to Sydney , Australia, while a giant sinkhole swallowed three cars in Melbourne. Fish and whales continue to be washed up in large numbers in coastal , freshwater lakes and rivers , in part thanks to the increased volcanic activity , the aboveground manifested itself in December from outbreaks in Indonesia , Mexico, Iceland , Cape Verde, Hawaii and Japan.

"The stricken by drought Sao Paulo was flooded with rain , which meant that roads were turned into rivers. Waterspouts appeared in Australia and the Mediterranean , a tornado hit downtown LA for the first time in decades , while another " season - unusual " tornado outbreak in the southern US killed 5 people and left dozens homeless. The " worst flooding in decades " met Southeast Asia, especially bad it happened while Malaysia and Sri Lanka ; a quarter of a million people had to be evacuated from their homes.

"A series of storms hit on the US West Coast , with landslides, mudslides , snow storms and flash floods that washed away houses and roads. On the other side of the Atlantic met a so-called " weather bomb " in the United Kingdom and Ireland, with monster waves and winds of hurricane strength. Then took a severe cold wave in Europe : Snow storms hit Western Europe, the Balkans and the Mediterranean. In Malta, the first snow fell for more than half a century.

"Spectacular fireballs were filmed over Puerto Rico, Brazil, USA , Canada, Spain and Japan. So-called " mysterious" explosion noises shook houses in towns in the USA to the UK. An incredible UFO sighting in Santiago , Chile, and the appearance of a bright glowing " plasma light " over Lima , Peru rang in the new year."
 
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Most Republicans Say They Back Climate Action, Poll Finds
By CORAL DAVENPORT and Marjorie Connelly JAN. 30, 2015
LINK: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/u....html?emc=edit_na_20150130&nlid=54852892&_r=0
TEXT: "WASHINGTON — An overwhelming majority of the American public, including half of Republicans, support government action to curb global warming, according to a poll conducted by The New York Times, Stanford University and the nonpartisan environmental research group Resources for the Future.

"In a finding that could have implications for the 2016 presidential campaign, the poll also found that two-thirds of Americans said they were more likely to vote for political candidates who campaign on fighting climate change. They were less likely to vote for candidates who questioned or denied the science that determined that humans caused global warming. Among Republicans, 48 percent say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports fighting climate change, a result that Jon A. Krosnick, a professor of political science at Stanford University and an author of the survey, called “the most powerful finding” in the poll. Many Republican candidates question the science of climate change or do not publicly address the issue. Nonetheless, 47 percent of Republicans still said they believed that policies designed to curb global warming would hurt the economy.

"Although the poll found that climate change was not a top issue in determining a person’s vote, a candidate’s position on climate change influences how a person will vote. For example, 67 percent of respondents, including 48 percent of Republicans and 72 percent of independents, said they were less likely to vote for a candidate who said that human-caused climate change is a hoax. The results came as climate change was emerging as a source of debate in the coming presidential campaign.

"In 2012, all the Republican presidential candidates but one — Jon M. Huntsman Jr. — questioned or denied the science that determined that humans caused global warming, and opposed policies to curb greenhouse gas emissions. But over the past year, President Obama has proposed a series of Environmental Protection Agency regulations intended to reduce carbon pollution from coal-fired power plants, which Republicans in Congress have attacked as a “war on coal.” But those positions appear to be out of step with the majority of the electorate.

"The poll found that 83 percent of Americans, including 61 percent of Republicans and 86 percent of independents, say that if nothing is done to reduce emissions, global warming will be a very or somewhat serious problem in the future."


Click on link to see entire article.
 
Auger of the future....? This is happening for specific reasons, but whenever an economic base shifts, there is unrest, not so?

Oil Cash Waning, Venezuelan Shelves Lie Bare
By William Neuman Jan. 29, 2015
LINK: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/w..._th_20150130&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=54852892
TEXT: "CARACAS, Venezuela — Mary Noriega heard there would be chicken. She hated being herded “like cattle,” she said, standing for hours in a line of more than 1,500 people hoping to buy food, as soldiers with side arms checked identification cards to make sure no one tried to buy basic items more than once or twice a week.

"But Ms. Noriega, a laboratory assistant with three children, said she had no choice, ticking off the inventory in her depleted refrigerator: coffee and corn flour. Things had gotten so bad, she said, that she had begun bartering with neighbors to put food on the table.“We always knew that this year would start badly, but I think this is super bad,” Ms. Noriega said.

"Venezuelans have put up with shortages and long lines for years. But as the price of oil, the country’s main export, has plunged, the situation has grown so dire that the government has sent troops to patrol huge lines snaking for blocks. Some states have barred people from waiting outside stores overnight, and government officials are posted near entrances, ready to arrest shoppers who cheat the rationing system.

"Because Venezuela is so dependent on oil sales to buy imports of food, medicine and many other basics, the drop in oil prices means that there is even less hard currency to buy what the country needs. Even before oil prices tumbled, Venezuela was in the throes of a deep recession, with one of the world’s highest inflation rates and chronic shortages of basic items."
 
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This is hilarious - when a weather board malfunctions and 'a weatherman keeps his cool'. :p

BEST LINE: "I think steel boils at this temperature... so don't even bother looting."


LINK: When a malfunctioning weather map turned up the heat, this hilarious weatherman kept his cool | Rare

TEXT: "Fox 10’s weatherman Cory McCloskey is a funny guy. When his weather map was experiencing some blatant technical difficulties, he decided to roll with it. His ad-libbed response was hilarious.

"Most of the Phoenix, Arizona region was a comfortable 60 degrees, but, hell, stay away from Cave Creek and its 2,960 degree heat. “Yeah, Cave Creek, Fountain Hills, they don’t look good either. And frankly, Wickenburg is a total loss,” McCloskey quipped. “Again, I’m not your dad, but I would get out while you still can.” "

Weather map goes crazy live on the air - YouTube
TEXT: "
Published on Jan 28, 2015: 2960 degrees in Cave Creek?! FOX 10's Cory McCloskey leads viewers through a hilarious weathercast after his weather map malfunctions. Technology doesn't always cooperate, but luckily Cory knows how to handle the "heat!" "

 
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The following article - from a Canadian source - details some backstory regarding the TLC, Milton Friedman, and the ideas of an 'excess of democracy' to 'democratic deficit'. I pick it up from there. We appear to be entering a 'perfect storm'. The situation with resources, the unwillingness of an elite to forego it's perks, the bourgeoning population, lead to collapse - but with the ruling elites oblivious to the impending catastrophes.

Pertinent quote: ""How close are we to collapse? The study points out that the process can extend over decades and even centuries. Yet some of the supporting empirical studies (by KPMG and the British Office for Science) suggest a perfect storm that involves food, water and energy could occur within 15 years."

Downsize Democracy For 40 Years, Here's What You Get:
New signs civilization is veering towards collapse.
By Murray Dobbin January 26, 2015
LINK: Downsize Democracy For 40 Years, Here's What You Get | Alternet

TEXT: "[...] it is the consequences of this decline and erosion of democracy that should be the most important focus of critics and citizens alike. The exceptionally successful four decades campaign to change the "ideological fabric" of society has put western civilization on a track to irreversible collapse according to a major study sponsored by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. The study focused on population, climate, water, agriculture and energy as the interrelated factors that determine the collapse or survival of civilizations going back 5000 years.

"According to a Guardian report on the study, these factors can coalesce and lead to civilization's collapse if they create two critical social features: "the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity... and... the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or 'Commoners') [poor]." According to the study these two developments played "a central role in the character or in the process of the collapse," in the demise of the Roman, Han, Mauryan, Gupta and multiple Mesopotamian Empires as well as the Maya. The study provides convincing "testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent."

"Careening towards collapse? How far down the road to collapse are we? For my generation not so far that we will see the worst of it. But what is alarming is that all the signs are so dramatically obvious. And while the mainstream media isn't yet talking about the end of our world, the issue of grotesque inequality and unsustainable resource depletion are somewhere in the media almost every week. Indeed inequality in particular has been a hot topic ever since the Occupy movement briefly swept the planet. Yet if you monitor the political debate in this country the two most important trends in our society and the world are virtually never mentioned except rhetorically. There are no serious policy prescriptions. Mass denial reigns. Or, as Freud stated, we are "knowing without knowing."

"Regarding income (and wealth) inequality, a 2010 study by the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives revealed that the top one per cent claimed close to a third of all income growth during the decade from 1997 to 2007. "That's a bigger piece of the action than any other generation of rich Canadians has taken," said Armine Yalnizyan, CCPA's senior economist and author of the report. "The last time Canada's elite held so much of the nation's income in their hands was in the 1920s. Even then, their incomes didn't soar as fast as they are today. It's a first in Canadian history and it underscores a dramatic reversal of long-term trends."

"Internationally, the picture is just as bad or worse. Earlier this month Oxfam released a report revealing: "The combined wealth of the world's richest one per cent will overtake that of the remaining 99 per cent by 2016.... " The wealthiest one per cent -- amounting to 72 million people -- already owns 48 per cent of all global wealth. This trend continues to accelerate, flying in the face of all the evidence that it could ultimately be fatal for capitalism.

"Is this really what the geniuses at the Chicago School of Economics like Milton Friedman had in mind? Did he really believe that "a democratic society, once established, destroys a free economy"? Would he have had any qualms about his policy prescriptions resulting in capitalism devolving into neo-feudalism or into Plutonomies -- a term first used by analysts at Citigroup in 2005, to "describe a country that is defined by massive income and wealth inequality.'" The analysts singled out the U.K., Canada, Australia and the United States.

"Elites won't save us: Theoretically, of course, neoliberalism says the state should not intervene in the efficient functioning of the market -- resulting in prosperity for everyone. But the theory, according to neoliberalism authority David Harvey, was simply hijacked by the elites to fleece the system -- bailing out the financial sector with trillions of taxpayers' dollars and failing to re-regulate, while gutting labour and environmental regulation. Government actions reveal neoliberalism as "more of a practical attempt to restore elite class power than as a theoretical project driven by the works of [Friedrich von] Hayek or Friedman."

"The NASA study is not optimistic about our chances of avoiding eventual collapse given the failure of other civilizations, saying "collapse is difficult to avoid.... Elites grow and consume too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society." Warnings go unheeded. The NASA reports says "historical collapses were allowed to occur by elites who appear to be oblivious to the catastrophic trajectory (most clearly apparent in the Roman and Mayan cases)."

"How close are we to collapse? The study points out that the process can extend over decades and even centuries. Yet some of the supporting empirical studies (by KPMG and the British Office for Science) suggest a perfect storm that involves food, water and energy could occur within 15 years.

"The NASA study highlights two trends -- resource depletion and inequality -- as the key factors in civilization collapse. But there is a third and it explains why historically elites have been "oblivious" to their unfolding catastrophes. That factor is the political system of the particular civilization. Designed to govern and manage social and economic life before it became corrupted, and still in the hands of the benefiting elites, these governing systems were simply incapable of incorporating the idea of collapse into their thinking.

"What would have to happen for us to escape the same fate?"
 
15 years is really freaky!!! Where are those 15 year scenarios?
They really don't exist as plotted out scenarios step-by-step. Or if they do, I have yet to come across them. Mainly the ideas of imminent change are embedded in the literature, regarding timelines for various events. Few state the worst outright - usually it's by a generation or two. Mainly it comes from a certain view of climate change happening faster than anticipated. But as you can see from my foregoing post, there are other timelines being analyzed. Most of them are analyzing across a spectrum: resource depletion, unequal wealth distribution, runaway pollution, population growth, food and water purity/availability, political breakdowns, wars. Various analysts will take varying positions on a continuum.
We need a countdown clock for the 15 years to "check off" the signs as each year passes. That would certainly get media attention... like the... how many minutes to nuclear destruction clock.
The checking off is happening already. Who is keeping track 'officially' I don't know - unless it's the IPCC.

McPherson is one of the extreme prognosticators - indicating that humanity has passed the tipping point and is on a certain path to extinction. The following is a fairly measured interview with Thom Hartmann, but as I indicate in a post further up on the thread, McPerson is a mixed bag with his overall view imo. But this interview gives a good sense of his basic analysis, much of it depending on the feed-back loops.

The 'Clathrate Gun' is the methane release - he feels it has been 'fired'. LINK: Clathrate gun hypothesis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Guy McPherson Thom Hartmann Conversation with great minds 4 4 14 720p
TEXT: "Published on Apr 6, 2014: Thom Hartmann´s Conversation with great Minds, April 4th, 2014"
 
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It is time to realize that there is a tradeoff between "quality of life" and "quantity of life." In a planet with limited resources -- sustainable growth is an oxymoron. Of course humanity could all shift to vegan diets, forgo national parks and crowd in a few more billion people, hoping that new levels of efficiency will allow us to survive. But it is well to ask if this really is the kind of world that we want? There is much we can do to reduce the suffering caused by human population growth. But recognizing that overpopulation is a perilous problem constitutes a critical first step

Overpopulation Is Still the Problem | Alon Tal

Birth Control and legal, safe abortions available to all is the only rational path to take, of course.

I am of the opinion that we are pouring too much of our wealth into supporting the life of extremely tenuous situations - that left to nature, would never come to viability. The lack of choice regarding birth control means too many unwanted pregnancies, and by extension too many births into questionable conditions. Without the option for safe abortions, the same result.

The bottom line? Women worldwide must be free to make their own choices. Women need to be free and educated, and protected from violence. That re-education of a world means some 'political correctness' must take place. A new religion, in a way. In this, @mike - you and I agree: that organized institutional religions exercise a powerful retrograde action on the health of the planet. Spirituality is another matter - and I have something to share about that aspect.
 
Thanks for your recent posts above, and I will look at the video soon. Somewhere in all "the noise" one could filter-out some good check boxes to use, and then relate it to the countdown clock too.

Anyway, if this is really happening in the next 15-30 years, then there's going to be one hell of a financial crisis. Looks like millions will die, which will probably trigger wars too.

IF there can be a one-off [or few inside a year or two] catastrophic event of some kind, then often humans can be shocked into taking action.

IF we're just boiling frogs here, then were doomed, imo. Mass extinction would be on the table, but the < 1% and government elites will repopulate the planet. I'm sure some could survive indefinitely for decades at least and a few much longer too.
 
One of the pertinent books regarding the coming extinction.

The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History by Elizabeth Kolbert
Publication Date: February 11, 2014
"ONE OF THE NEW YORK TIMES BOOK REVIEW’S 10 BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR
"A major book about the future of the world, blending intellectual and natural history and field reporting into a powerful account of the mass extinction unfolding before our eyes


"Over the last half a billion years, there have been five mass extinctions, when the diversity of life on earth suddenly and dramatically contracted. Scientists around the world are currently monitoring the sixth extinction, predicted to be the most devastating extinction event since the asteroid impact that wiped out the dinosaurs. This time around, the cataclysm is us. In The Sixth Extinction, two-time winner of the National Magazine Award and New Yorker writer Elizabeth Kolbert draws on the work of scores of researchers in half a dozen disciplines, accompanying many of them into the field: geologists who study deep ocean cores, botanists who follow the tree line as it climbs up the Andes, marine biologists who dive off the Great Barrier Reef. She introduces us to a dozen species, some already gone, others facing extinction, including the Panamian golden frog, staghorn coral, the great auk, and the Sumatran rhino. Through these stories, Kolbert provides a moving account of the disappearances occurring all around us and traces the evolution of extinction as concept, from its first articulation by Georges Cuvier in revolutionary Paris up through the present day. The sixth extinction is likely to be mankind's most lasting legacy; as Kolbert observes, it compels us to rethink the fundamental question of what it means to be human."


 
The sixth extinction is likely to be mankind's most lasting legacy; as Kolbert observes, it compels us to rethink the fundamental question of what it means to be human."
Yes, we have been shitty caretakers of the planet. Absolutely. It's shameful, really.

We need new forms of government, which also means a different system than we have now in the USA. I realized that many decades ago. Unfortunately, things usually have to get bad, real bad, before we're going to do anything about it. It's not hopeless, but "the shit" will have to go down.
 
A re-post of an extremely lucid description (imo) of the situation and how difficult the science over view is to wrap one's mind around. As a comment states: "This particular video didn't mention the changes to the food production, the effects from migrating insects, displacements, or other items that I'm sure were in the minds of the presenters."

Scientists on Abrupt Climate Change

TEXT: "Published on Oct 28, 2014: Though I have not been posting new "Climate Denial Crock of the Week" pieces for a while, I've not been idle. This is an episode from my "This is Not Cool" series through Yale Climate Connections."
 
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Scientists: What History Reveals about Sea Level Rise
TEXT: "Published on Nov 3, 2014: We assume the planet will continue to behave in the future as it has in the past 4 billion years. What does the pale-record tell us about climate change? This is from my "This is Not Cool" series."
 
A re-post -

One of the factors that comes home as one delves into this subject of how the world will/must change in order to survive the coming rigors is the the shift from centralized power. The new world being ushered in by the very real necessities of Climate Change means a de-centralized world, albeit connected by a cooperative 'web'. It's already happening in '3rd World' countries that are by-passing the coal/oil/gas model, moving at once into sustainable models (as mentioned in previous posts). Europe, country by country, is effecting the change - Germany comes to mind, Norway and Sweden (the Scandinavian countries tend to be far-seeing in this way).

The shift away from oil is already having impacts - at a time when more oil reserves are being discovered, oddly enough. But the impetus to sustainable energy is now a serious movement. In the US we will be dealing with the retrograde foot-dragging of Congress for the next two years until the next election - but the local movement toward sustainability is definite and unmistakeable.

The following book explores the consequences of this revolutionary shift in energy sources for governments. Something to ponder.
This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate - Naomi Klein (September 16, 2014)
Amazon Blurb: "The most important book yet from the author of the international bestseller The Shock Doctrine, a brilliant explanation of why the climate crisis challenges us to abandon the core “free market” ideology of our time, restructure the global economy, and remake our political systems. In short, either we embrace radical change ourselves or radical changes will be visited upon our physical world. The status quo is no longer an option.

"In This Changes Everything Naomi Klein argues that climate change isn’t just another issue to be neatly filed between taxes and health care. It’s an alarm that calls us to fix an economic system that is already failing us in many ways. Klein meticulously builds the case for how massively reducing our greenhouse emissions is our best chance to simultaneously reduce gaping inequalities, re-imagine our broken democracies, and rebuild our gutted local economies. She exposes the ideological desperation of the climate-change deniers, the messianic delusions of the would-be geo-engineers, and the tragic defeatism of too many mainstream green initiatives. And she demonstrates precisely why the market has not—and cannot—fix the climate crisis but will instead make things worse, with ever more extreme and ecologically damaging extraction methods, accompanied by rampant disaster capitalism.

"Klein argues that the changes to our relationship with nature and one another that are required to respond to the climate crisis humanely should not be viewed as grim penance, but rather as a kind of gift—a catalyst to transform broken economic and cultural priorities and to heal long-festering historical wounds. And she documents the inspiring movements that have already begun this process: communities that are not just refusing to be sites of further fossil fuel extraction but are building the next, regeneration-based economies right now. Can we pull off these changes in time? Nothing is certain. Nothing except that climate change changes everything. And for a very brief time, the nature of that change is still up to us."
 
At the beginning of Chapter 21 of George Eliot's novel, Daniel Deronda, the author tells us: "It is a common sentence that Knowledge is power; but who hath duly considered or set forth the power of Ignorance? Knowledge slowly builds up what Ignorance in an hour pulls down. Knowledge, through patient and frugal centuries, enlarges discovery and makes record of it; Ignorance, wanting its day's dinner, lights a fire with the record, and gives a flavor to its one roast with the burnt souls of many generations."
 
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