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Climate Science Predictions and Realities

Discussion in 'General Freewheeling Chit-Chat' started by Tyger, Feb 19, 2017.



  1. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    Science deals with hypotheses that become theories. Hypotheses are educated guesses - theories are supported by a great deal of evidence and facts. Climate Change/Global Warming was a strong educated guess (hypothesis) starting as far back as the 1800's. In the 20th century there was accumulating enough data and evidence for the hypothesis to graduate to an accepted theory.

    Any theory is never static - but changes and adapts as new data comes in - and that has been the case with the theory of Climate Change and Global Warming. An elegant example of how a theory adapts is the Theory of Uniformitarianism - the theory that changes in the earth's crust during geological history have resulted from the action of continuous and uniform processes. That theory finally adapted (about the 1970's, 80's) to accept catastrophic events as being part of the geologic history of the earth.


    The test of any theory is how well it predicts events. Under that constraint, Climate Change Science has a track record regarding predicting what we will experience under a warming climate, correlated with greenhouse gasses increases, etc.

    Oklahoma hits 100° in the dead of winter, because climate change is real
    This is what climate change looks like.
    LINK: Oklahoma hits 100° in the dead of winter, because climate change is real
    TEXT: Two years ago this month, in a well-publicized and much lampooned political stunt, Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) brought a snowball to the Senate floor to highlight the “unseasonable” cold and cast doubt on climate change.

    The Republican lawmaker would have been hard-pressed to find a snowball anywhere in his home state this past weekend.

    Oklahoma just endured a spell of exceptionally hot weather. Mangum, Oklahoma saw temperatures close to 100º F, setting a state record. The average February high in Mangum is 56º F.


    [​IMG]
    Oklahoma on February 11th, 2017. CREDIT: Mesonet
    It is extremely unusual to see such sweltering temperatures in the dead of winter, but climate change is loading the dice for record-breaking heat. Here, the human fingerprint is clear. Carbon pollution traps heat, warming the planet. This, in turn, shifts the entire distribution of temperatures.


    [​IMG]
    Global warming makes extreme heat more likely. CREDIT: Environmental Protection Agency
    Cold days become more rare, while warm days become routine. The hottest days — the ones that break records — are almost invariably linked to human influence. In this new climate system, extreme heat is far more likely than extreme cold. Over the last year, the United States has seen more than four times as many record high temperatures as record lows. The heat in Oklahoma is just the latest example.


    [​IMG]
    CREDIT: Climate Signals
    Many people may welcome a temperate day in February, but warm weather in normally cold months disrupts ecosystems. Trees may bloom after an unseasonably balmy spell — and then suffer frost damage when cold weather returns. Flowers may blossom and shed their petals before bees arrive to pollinate them. These minor destabilizations have a ripple effect, impacting flora, fauna, and the industries built around them.

    In Oklahoma, the spike in temperature is particularly ironic, given the state’s political climate. Inhofe is Washington’s most vocal climate denier, having published a book alleging that climate change is a hoax while serving as the ranking Republican member of the Senate Environment Committee.

    Inhofe will soon have an ally inside the EPA — Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, President Trump’s pick to head the agency. Inhofe has describedPruitt, a longtime fossil fuel insider, as a “leader and a partner on environmental issues for many years.” Pruitt is expected to bring several former Inhofe staffers with him to his new office.

    As Oklahoma’s attorney general, Pruitt has sued the EPA many times, including over the Obama administration’s plan to limit carbon pollution from power plants. The Clean Power Plan is considered one of the most effective tools for curbing U.S. carbon emissions.
    Caveat: There will be a temptation (among some) to post spurious rebuttals. Such rebuttals are irrelevant, a distraction, and not informative. What is interesting is how the scientists themselves who are doing the research and collecting the data are adapting the theory (if at all) to reflect new data, etc. In most cases they are being caught off-guard with how fast the scenarios - once predicted to take a century or at least decades - are playing out in years.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2017
  2. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    Worst Case Climate Change (2008 TED Talk)

    TEXT: Published on May 18, 2014: In February 2008 I gave a talk at TED in Monterey CA. It was a TED-U talk for about 20 minutes. That talk was recorded but never posted online. The idea was to take best case or nominal case climate change off the table, and just for the sake of it...discuss worst case scenarios. No one was giving a talk like this...it was a bit too scary. Many people left the session in tears.

    When I returned from TED we recorded the same talk in a studio even though I was sick (in this video). That was never seen or posted until now (May 2014), more than 6 years later. I remember being sick that day but doing it anyway.

    What is most interesting is to look forward from 2008 when this was taped and see what predictions have come closer to reality (arctic ice melt and antarctic as well) and which have not. Regardless of one's beliefs or political convictions, the ideas and science here make for great conversation. Hopefully none come true.
     
  3. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    NASA | IPCC Projections of Temperature and Precipitation in the 21st Century

    TEXT: Published on Sep 27, 2013: New data visualizations from the NASA Center for Climate Simulation and NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio show how climate models -- those used in the new report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) -- estimate how temperature and precipitation patterns could change throughout the 21st century.
    For the IPCC's Physical Science Basis and Summary for Policymakers reports, scientists referenced an international climate modeling effort to study how the Earth might respond to four different scenarios of how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases would be emitted into the atmosphere throughout the 21st century.

    The Summary for Policymakers, the first official piece of the group's Fifth Assessment Report, was released Fri., Sept. 27.

    That modeling effort, called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), includes dozens of climate models from institutions around the world, including from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

    To produce visualizations that show temperature and precipitation changes similar to those included in the IPCC report, the NASA Center for Climate Simulation calculated mean model results for each of the four emissions scenarios. The final products are visual representations how much temperature and precipitation patterns would change through 2100 compared to the historical average from the end of the 20th century. The changes shown compare the model projections to the average temperature and precipitation benchmarks observed from 1971-2000. This baseline is different from the IPCC report, which uses a 1986-2005 baseline. Because the reference period from 1986-2005 was slightly warmer than 1971-2000, the visualizations are slightly different than those in the report, even though the same model data is used.

    This video is public domain and can be downloaded at: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/goto?11376
     
  4. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    Hopefully, this thread will stay on-topic. (I am aware there is a troll who barges in onto any thread I start on this topic - so there is no need to contact me about said person). The thread will be interesting for those drawn to understand Climate Change Theory and Global Warming realities. I am not proselytizing. This is not a debate thread. There are plenty of those. Hopefully the thread will not be co-opted.

    Debate on scientific matters such as Climate Change amongst nonscientists is effectively between 'believers' and 'deniers'. I prefer not to go round that mulberry bush.

    I agree with the poster who distinguishes a layperson's argument (believer/denier) from a scientist's (researcher/skeptic). In the latter context a skeptic is merely a questioner and all good science demands such.

    Let the following quote be the standing caution: "How does a fanatic behave? He wants to convert people as quickly as possible; while they, as a rule, do not want to be converted. Everybody is expected immediately to believe what the fanatic wants them to believe and he is angry when this does not happen."

    There is nothing here about 'converting'. It is all about being informed.

    The following may be helpful to explain the backstory.....there are 35 videos supplied in this roll.....starting with -

    1. Climate Change -- the scientific debate

    TEXT: Uploaded on Sep 21, 2008: A basic look at how climate scientists infer that man-made carbon gases are changing the climate, and how this view is contradicted by other climate scientists who are skeptics. I am a former science correspondent with an interest in reporting the facts, not the media hype. [...] Please note that the animation of a photon striking a carbon atom is not meant to be visually correct, it is simply an illustration of CO2 absorbing energy and re-emitting it at a different wavelength. Given the limitations I have in making animations I could not spend an inordinate amount of time making a visually 'correct' image of a photon striking an electron which moves into a different orbital plane, and even if I tried it would never be visually correct because on a quantum scale such an illustration is impossible. But thanks to all those who wrote in. The narration that accompanies the illustration is correct."
     
  5. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    I am posting the second video in the above series because I love the guy's comments following the video - which I have bolded. Exactly the way I think about this notion of 'debating' the science among non-scientists - generally not a good idea, except where it's done in a friendly and reasonable way. Such can be highly educative for those so engaged. Otherwise, to be avoided if even slightly veering towards the 'fanatical'.

    2. Climate Change -- the objections

    TEXT: "Uploaded on Nov 24, 2008: This video, the second in the series, looks at alternative hypotheses explaining global warming. I am only looking at alternative hypotheses put forward by real, professional climate researchers, and the findings of real, professional climate researchers who disagree with them. Yes, I've left a lot of the detail out. This is a 10-minute video summarizing the arguments and counter-arguments, not a PhD thesis. The comments forum will be free and open, as always, but if you disagree with what real, professional climate scientists say, please take it up with them and don't expect me to defend their point of view. If you have a stunning piece of scientific evidence that disproves one side or the other, don't waste time on my channel, write a paper, and get it peer-reviewed and published in a reputable journal.

    "PLEASE NOTE -- ERROR -- I quoted from an Oreskes Paper and incorrectly stated that nearly 700 papers 'explicitely endorsed the view that man-made gases are responsible.' This should read that these papers 'explicitly or implicity endorsed the view that man-made gases are responsible.' The papers that 'implicitly' implied it were those that dealt with effects or mitigation measures. The original should not have been in quotation marks either. My apologies for the error."
     
  6. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    Okay - I will post more in the 35 series of Potholer's YouTube videos. They are quite good. I particularly love his comments.

    3 - Climate Change -- Anatomy of a myth

    TEXT: "Uploaded on Mar 23, 2009: I had planned to put several myths in this video, but discovered such an appalling web of deceit and fabrication in this first one that I felt I had no choice but to thoroughly debunk it. Like many ingrained myths, this one is so ubiquitous that it takes an awful lot of hard evidence to convince true believers that it's been fabricated.

    "A paper cited in this video was incorrectly dated. It is 'The myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Consensus' by TC Petersonet al, September 2008 volume 89 issue 9, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society."
     
  7. Michael Allen

    Michael Allen Paranormal Adept

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    Getting wary of the endless anti-GW chatterbots

    Sooooo..appears I need to post this (yet) again in all its blatant simplicity:

    Radiative forcing

    Radiative forcing defined as the difference of sunlight in watts per square meter absorbed by the Earth and energy radiated back to space.

    CO2 has the highest radiative forcing.

    (Translation: It fracking absorbs more energy that it emits back into fracking space..)

    "Human emissions of CO2 are now estimated to be 26.4 Gt (gigatonnes) per year, up from 23.5 Gt in the 1990s"

    The History of Carbon Dioxide Emissions | World Resources Institute
    Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter | New Scientist
    https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4_wg3_full_report.pdf

    Compare 0.198 Gt (198 megatonnes) in 1850

    Hence the Net Anthropogenic (Net human created) component correlation, ergo HUMAN CREATED.

    One must only understand basic chemistry, physics and math & read up, get educated etc.

    Plenty of people will argue against scientific fact without actually putting the work into understanding what they are arguing against--so don't be one of those people.

    Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
     
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  8. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    Headline is irrelevant - some fabulous graphics and videos. Take note! ;) All the ice melting is a ways off from our lifetimes, if it happens. Figure at least 2200 to approach the graphics but more like 2500. Hands down it's going to be a different world no matter how you slice it by 3,000. I find the graphics fascinating.

    Here’s what the world will look like once ALL the Ice melted
    LINK: Terrifying! Here’s what the world will look like once ALL the Ice melted

    [​IMG]



    Throughout the years, we have learned that mankind has drastically changed planet Earth. If all the ice melted on Earth, it would DRAMATICALLY reshape our planet’s continents and would result in the flooding of major cities around the globe.

    Scroll down for the video!

    Scientists estimate that there are more than 5 million CUBIC miles of ice on Earth. Many researchers agree that it would take around 5,000 years for all the ice to melt.

    If this were to occur, it would DRAMATICALLY reshape our planet’s continents and would result in the flooding of major cities around the globe.

    However, if we continue to add the amount of carbon to the atmosphere, we could easily create and ICE-FREE planet. As National Geographic reports, this would result in an average temperature of perhaps 80 degrees Fahrenheit instead of the current 58.

    According to reports, sea levels have drastically risen in the last decade and at an even greater rate in recent years. Estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change believes that sea levels could rise at an alarming rate of one or more meters by the end of the century.

    All of this was intricately shown by National Geographic in 2013, and that sea levels can rise by 216 feet if all the land ice on our planet were to melt.

    The consequences are terrifying. It would mean that the ENTIRE Atlantic seaboard could vanish, including Florida and the Gulf Coast. Check out the below image:


    [​IMG]

    In South America the same would happen as the Amazon Basin in the north and the Paraguay River Basin in the south would become Atlantic inlets, wiping out Buenos Aires, coastal Uruguay, and most of Paraguay.

    [​IMG]

    The same thing would happen across Europe, Africa, Asia and even Antarctica.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Recently, scientists discovered alarming things on Antarctica. According to reports, a MASSIVE crack in the Antarctic ice shelf Larsen C, will soon give away, becoming one of the largest icebergs on the planet. In fact, it might be an iceberg twice the size of the SMALLEST European country.

    As it turns out, Larsen C is the FOURTH largest ice shelf in Antarctica and according to reports from Nature, since early this year [2015], its crack has moved at least 10 kilometers more. Currently, the crack is already 175 kilometers long. When the iceberg finally separates from the ice shelf, it will be one of the largest ever recorded, although it is difficult to predict when it will happen.

    To get an idea at what would happen if all the land ice melted, the Business Insider has created a video which perfectly illustrates it.


    What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted

    TEXT: "Published on Feb 18, 2015: We learned last year that many of the effects of climate change are irreversible. Sea levels have been rising at a greater rate year after year, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates they could rise by another meter or more by the end of this century.

    "As National Geographic showed us in 2013, sea levels would rise by 216 feet if all the land ice on the planet were to melt. This would dramatically reshape the continents and drown many of the world's major cities."
     
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  9. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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  10. wwkirk

    wwkirk Paranormal Adept

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    Hopefully pixelsmith and Greer's Meeting Planner will post here.
     
  11. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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  12. Gene Steinberg

    Gene Steinberg Forum Super Hero Staff Member

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    We will be watching.
     
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  13. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    Government Report Finds Drastic Impact of Climate Change on U.S.
    By LISA FRIEDMAN August 7, 2017
    LINK: Scientists Fear Trump Will Dismiss Blunt Climate Report

    TEXT: WASHINGTON — The average temperature in the United States has risen rapidly and drastically since 1980, and recent decades have been the warmest of the past 1,500 years, according to a sweeping federal climate change report awaiting approval by the Trump administration.

    The draft report by scientists from 13 federal agencies, which has not yet been made public, concludes that Americans are feeling the effects of climate change right now. It directly contradicts claims by President Trump and members of his cabinet who say that the human contribution to climate change is uncertain and that the ability to predict the effects is limited.

    “How much more the climate will change depends on future emissions and the sensitivity of the climate system to those emissions,” a draft of the report states. A copy of it was obtained by The New York Times.

    The report was completed this year and is part of the National Climate Assessment, which is congressionally mandated every four years. The National Academy of Sciences has signed off on the draft and is awaiting permission from the Trump administration to release it.

    One government scientist who worked on the report, and who spoke to The Times on the condition of anonymity, said he and others were concerned that it would be suppressed.

    The report concludes that even if humans immediately stopped emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the world would still feel at least an additional 0.50 degrees Fahrenheit (0.30 degrees Celsius) of warming over this century compared with today. A small difference in global temperatures can make a big difference in the climate: The difference between a rise in global temperatures of 1.5 degrees Celsius and one of 2 degrees Celsius, for example, could mean longer heat waves, more intense rainstorms and the faster disintegration of coral reefs.

    Among the more significant of the study’s findings is that it is possible to attribute some extreme weather to climate change. The field known as “attribution science” has advanced rapidly in response to increasing risks from climate change.

    The report finds it “extremely likely” that more than half of the global mean temperature increase since 1951 can be linked to human influence.

    In the United States, the report finds with “very high” confidence that the number and severity of cool nights has decreased, while the frequency and severity of warm days has increased since the 1960s. Extreme cold waves, it says, are less common since the 1980s, while extreme heat waves are more common.

    The study examines every corner of the United States and finds that all of it was touched by climate change. It said the average annual rainfall across the country has increased by about 4 percent since the beginning of the 20th century. Parts of the West, Southwest and Southeast are drying up, while the Southern Plains and Midwest are getting wetter.

    With a medium degree of confidence, the authors linked the contribution of human-caused warming to rising temperatures over the Western and Northern United States. It found no direct link in the Southeast.

    The Environmental Protection Agency is one of 13 agencies that must approve the report by Sunday. The agency’s administrator, Scott Pruitt, has said he does not believe that carbon dioxide is a primary contributor to global warming.

    “It’s a fraught situation,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geoscience and international affairs at Princeton University who was not involved in the study. “This is the first case in which an analysis of climate change of this scope has come up in the Trump administration, and scientists will be watching very carefully to see how they handle it.”

    Scientists say they fear the Trump administration could change or suppress the report.
    But those who challenge scientific data on human-caused climate change say they are equally worried that the draft report, as well as the larger National Climate Assessment, will be publicly released.

    “The National Climate Assessment seems to be on autopilot because there’s no political that has taken control of it,” said Myron Ebell, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. He was referring to a lack of political direction from the Trump administration.

    The government scientists wrote that surface, air and ground temperatures in Alaska and the Arctic are warming at a frighteningly fast rate — twice as fast as the global average.

    “It is very likely that the accelerated rate of Arctic warming will have a significant consequence for the United States due to accelerating land and sea ice melting that is driving changes in the ocean including sea level rise threatening our coastal communities,” the report says.

    Human activity, it goes on to say, is a primary culprit.
     
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  14. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    Thank you for doing the clean-up. @mike
     
  15. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    Wildfires are burning in Greenland: Historically, wildfires in Greenland occur infrequently.
    LINK: Wildfires are burning in Greenland
    TEXT Excerpt: "Three-quarters of Greenland is covered by the only permanent ice sheet outside Antarctica, and permafrost is found on most of the rest of the island. These are reasons why it is very unusual, and possibly unprecedented, that two wildfires are burning on the giant island."
     
  16. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    Heard about this on NPR yesterday - interviewee (in Italy) was saying that it was usual for him to put on the A/C for 2-3 days max in a summer season. This year he has had the A/C on continuously for 2 weeks straight, no end in sight.

    Please note the change in the harvest being effected - this is one effect of the rising temperatures, as predicted. Poor harvests mean economic downturns (as well as food scarcity). Restless populations - leads to migration. Population stresses. Civil unrest.

    Two dead as 'Lucifer' heatwave holds Italy, eastern Europe in fiery grip
    LINK:
    Two dead as 'Lucifer' heatwave hits Italy, eastern Europe
    TEXT Excerpt: "Swathes of southern and eastern Europe have sweltered in temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius [104'F] in a heatwave nicknamed "Lucifer", which has killed at least two people across the region. Italy and the Balkans were worst affected, though areas as far north as southern Poland also basked in abnormally hot temperatures, and European weather hub Meteoalarm issued its highest grade 'red' warnings for 10 countries.

    "At least two people have died from the heat — one in Romania and one in Poland — and many more have been taken to hospital suffering from sunstroke and other heat-related conditions. In Albania, 300 firefighters and soldiers struggled to contain as many as 75 forest fires and the country asked the European Union for emergency help. Firefighters were also busy in Serbia, Bosnia, Macedonia and Croatia, and authorities advised people to stay indoors and increase their water intake. Temperatures were expected to stay around 40 degrees Celsius [104'F] into next week.

    "Wine growers in Italy have started gathering the grape harvest weeks earlier than usual due to the extreme heat. Carlo Petrini, founder of the Slow Food movement, wrote in La Stampa newspaper that the grape harvest had never started before August 15 in living memory. 'The health of the grapes is severely tested by this weather,' Mr Petrini wrote, adding that growers ran the risk of finding the fruit 'cooked by the sun and the burning heat'.

    "Italian authorities have issued weather risk warnings for 26 cities, including tourist hubs Venice and Rome, where many of the fountains have been turned off due to a lengthy drought. The world-famous Uffizi art galleries in Florence had to shut temporarily on Friday when the air conditioning system broke down, their director told ANSA news agency. Bosnian officials said the heatwave and drought had nearly halved agricultural output, which accounts for 10 per cent of the country's economic output. Neighboring Serbia reported a similar situation and experts said drought could slash corn and soybean production by a third. In neighboring Croatia the heatwave and peak tourist season has driven power demand and spot prices to record levels, officials said on Friday."
     
  17. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    Europe Swelters Under a Heat Wave Called ‘Lucifer’
    LINK:
    Europe Swelters Under a Heat Wave Called ‘Lucifer’
    TEXT Excerpt: "The meteorologists agree: The long hot spell gripping parts of Europe this past week is uncommon. People looking for relief from the heat in countries like France, Spain and Italy grappled for just the right name for the phenomenon — and settled on 'Lucifer.' The waves of heat sent temperatures soaring to record highs for several days, caused at least two deaths, kindled wildfires and drove tempers through the roof. In France, people congregated around fountains to bask in the meager sprays, or simply to dive in. In Romania, the police banned heavy traffic on major roads, and trains slowed to a relative crawl. Animal rights groups in Serbia’s capital, Belgrade, urged citizens to place bowls of water outside their buildings and in parks for stray dogs.

    "High temperatures this summer have brought punishing heat to regions in the United States like the Pacific Northwest — where generations had shunned air-conditioning — reaching as high as 104 in Seattle and 107 in Portland, Ore. In parts of Asia, like Pakistan, a blast of scorching weather this year also had people there reaching for comparisons to hell on earth as records fell.

    "Experts say it’s all part of a broader trend: Summers are, indeed, getting hotter. Here is what our correspondents across Europe reported about the heat on the Continent." [See Article Linked` to continue to read]
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2017
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  18. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    Hotter and drier again in the Middle East and US desert - June 25, 2017
    Halfway through the year and we have already set new heat records
    LINK: Hotter and drier again in the Middle East and US desert
    TEXT: At current rate of progress, 2017 will turn out to be the second hottest year since 1880, when the recording of global temperatures started.

    Last year was boosted a little by El Nino, which would make it even more remarkable were 2017 even to be ranked second because El Nino has gone for now.

    So far this year world records have been broken in both high temperature and low humidity.

    The heatwave in May that covered northern India, central Pakistan and eastern Iran created a new world record. Turbat in Pakistan recorded 53.5C (128'F) on May 28, the new highest May temperature in the 137-year continuous list. It was also the highest temperature recorded for any month in Pakistan.

    Then, on June 20 in Death Valley, California, the thermometer read 52.5C (126.5'F) making it the highest temperature measured in the Western Hemisphere so early in the year.

    Hot days are more bearable if the nights are significantly cooler. Indeed, that differential is often what determines the existence of a deadly "heatwave". Temperatures this high are rarely accompanied by cool enough nights and on June 17, Khasab in Oman set another world record: 44.2C (111.56'F) became the highest night minimum temperature on record.

    From a human point of view, such hot weather is only survivable if the humidity of the air is low enough for the body to cool by evaporation of sweat. Luckily for us, this always the case on this planet, in normal circumstances. Sometimes the humidity is extraordinarily low, as it was this month in Iran and the desert US.

    Safi-Abad Dezful in Iran measured less than 0.4 percent relative humidity on June 27 with a temperature of 46.5C (115.7'F). This effectively ties with Needles, California for the lowest known relative humidity reading on earth. The California reading was made in May 2014 but on June 20 this year Needles was as dry as 0.8 percent.

    For readers in the Middle East, when the temperature is in the middle 40s during the summer, the typical relative humidity (RH) is around about 10 percent. That is why it is possible to be outside even though that heat is above body temperature. Perspiration works to keep us cool enough in those conditions. This is often called "dry heat".

    RH is the measure of how much water vapour is in the air compared with how much would be needed to saturate that air and form fog.

    Hot air can carry more water vapour than cold air, so using relative rather than absolute humidity allows a comparable figure at any temperature.
     
  19. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    Since my other thread exploring what the world will be like in the future under Climate Change has been diverted, I will post all relevant posts to that thread here. In many ways all these elements basically conflate. What many don't seem to realize is how fast and profound the changes are - both with the changing climate, but also with the changing social/economic systems being designed to meet the new conditions we will be facing. As many (here) rail against details of what they believe is disputed science, the world is moving on - at tremendous speed. It is so.

    A bit of a side-note: there is a growing and wide-spread understanding that capitalism is a failing system. Economics (new digital currencies, blockchain) coming head-to-head - or hand-in-glove - with new technologies - are forging a new world that will be present by 2045. (The political foment in the U.S., and elsewhere, is just a momentary blip - but the confusion is heralding the changes faster. Those changes are beyond the control of politics - which will have to play catch-up. The atavistic xenophobia manifesting in many locales is the symptom of a dying societal/cultural/economic paradigm, whose time is over).

    The Future of Living: Self-Sustaining Villages | James Ehrlich | TEDxKlagenfurt

    TEXT: Published July 6, 2017 - "Smart house inside of the dumb neighborhood does not make sense! James explains in his talk how to build regenerative communities that produce more organic food, clean water, renewable energy and mitigate waste.

    "James Ehrlich is the Founder of ReGen Villages, a Stanford University spin-off company, which aims to develop the “Tesla of Ecovillages“ with an infrastructure that creates a surplus energy, water, and organic food. As a Senior Technologist at Stanford University, Senior Fellow at Opus Novum consortium at NASA Ames Research Center and an Entrepreneur in Residence at the Stanford Peace Innovation Lab at the Center for Design Research he is indeed an expert in the area of sustainable development."

    Other links to the above -

    Website: Utopian off-grid Regen Village produces all of its own food and energy

    Facebook: ReGen Villages
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2017
  20. Tyger

    Tyger Paranormal Adept

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    We are looking at predictions - and these posts function as effective bookmarks to see how the predictions have been panning out.

    Interesting debate within the field. What is taking place is the system is changing at an exceedingly rapid pace - mainly because (it is suggested) the methane has been triggered and is driving the heating up. Capping human activity CO2 emissions is a vain hope in this view because the heating is no longer in human hands to control. There is a strong emerging view that we are in runaway Climate Change. Not all Climate Scientists are there at that view.

    Keep in mind we are locked into a 1.5'C heat rise (close to that now) - and likely 3'C .

    One has to be conversant with the players in the arena and how they are debating the issues. This is not a layperson's debate on the science - and makes no sense to engage in that.
    What is interesting is to listen to the actual debate within the science - and at this stage it's all about how fast, when, what, who impacted - not whether it will happen or is it happening. It is happening - and it is happening at an increasingly accelerating rate. It is interesting to note that critiques of Mann at this juncture are claiming that Mann is hedging - for political reasons - not wanting to alarm people as to the severity of the situation.

    Opinion: "Mann is drastically understating the situation, as did the article. We are likely to see civilization collapse within 10 years due to the collapse of agriculture brought about by abrupt climate change.

    "Methane and Co2 coming out of the arctic ocean and out of the tundra permafrost are now putting more greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere than human activity is.

    "Mann is politically motivated and he is not telling the truth. We are heading straight into a burning lake of fire in the very near future due to unlimited growth culture on a finite and fragile planet."

    Opinion: "The Earth has passed the point of no return and IS in runaway warming.

    "The Earth's ocean currents are shutting down halting the cooling process of earths oceans leading to a warming of the worlds oceans and the rest of Earth, as a result coral reefs are dying NOW !

    "Ocean acidification is also accelerating killing off the ocean food web.

    "The greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost are accelerating as 1000's of square miles of permafrost thaw reaching deeper and deeper into more new deposits of methane in the thawing permafrost more and more each year.

    "The Arctic ice cap is disappearing along with the surrounding snow cover in a positive feedback loop that will turn the Arctic from a heat reflector to a heat collector, accelerating global warming.

    "Michael Mann is presenting a lie of omission, he is omiting all the serious positive feedbacks that are happening now. The reason he is lying is he - like other climate scientists - know its too late to stop catastrophic warming w/o using geoengineering and ONLY geoengineering can possibly stop it but with unpredictable negative consequences."


    Michael Mann Responds to ‘Uninhabitable Earth’


    TEXT: Published on Jul 23, 2017: "Leading Climate Scientist Michael Mann separates myth from reality in climate change reporting."
     
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