The Black Swan

[bluecat]

http://theozfiles.blogspot.com/2009/01/westall-ufo-black-swan.html

1. The event is a surprise.
2. The event has a major impact.
3. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected.

Maybe this is old news to everyone, but I just stumbled on to it. It looks like someone has already applied the idea to UFOs.

Something by the author:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-tale.html?pagewanted=all

 

[Stagger]

http://theozfiles.blogspot.com/2009/01/westall-ufo-black-swan.html

1. The event is a surprise.
2. The event has a major impact.
3. After the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected.

Maybe this is old news to everyone, but I just stumbled on to it. It looks like someone has already applied the idea to UFOs.

Something by the author:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/books/chapters/0422-1st-tale.html?pagewanted=all

Loved the book, highly recommended. There's also a video recording of the talk Nassim Taleb gave for the Long Now Foundation, he's a pretty skilled speaker too so the video is a good intro to the topic. Entertaining too .

http://fora.tv/2008/02/04/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb_A_Crazier_Future