Flight 370: Wild scenarios

[Wade]

The death toll on MH17 eclipsed only by a handful another tragic airline shoot down in a war zone where the us military confused an airbus A-300 with an F-14 Tomcat fighter. If memory serves it was near the end of the Iran-Iraq war.

Iran Air Flight 655 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[flipper]

"To cut through the propaganda one has to look at the situation in this way.. who has to gain from the situation and who will not. Russia has nothing to gain at all" I suspect there are many hands moving behind the scene and we the public are being played.

Who wants Russian gas?
Who has been at continuous war in every part of the globe?
Who supports the Ukraine government?
Prof. John McMurtry "The “Ukraine crisis” repeats a script as old as the Cold War. The narrative features rising attacks by corporate states and media on the traditional whipping boy of Russia. As usual, “escalating the crisis” is US-led. As usual, alarm about “increasing lawless aggression” is projection of US policy itself. In fact, one more US-directed violent overthrow of an elected government has carved off the biggest country of Europe from next-door Russia."
I was listening to the broadcasting network that I own in part (i.e.) the CBC. They framed the question of who shot down the MH17 like this: The sophisticated Buk radar guided, tracked-vehicle mounted, anti-aircraft missile system which shot down MH17 is operated by The Ukrainian Government. The rebels in order to get and operate such a system must have had help. It left the listener with impression that Russia was responsible for the shooting down of the missile (but no evidence was offered that this was the case) .
Yes we are being played and what the many hands behind the scenes and what those hands are doing in our name brings misery to all those that the hands touch.

 

[mike]

Im still inclined to accept the western version of this at this point and heres why

I watched a Russian TV report yesterday that made the claim no international experts had attended the site, because the Ukrainians were detaining them in Kiev.
But ive also watched reports by western TV crews at the site.......
These same crews report being intimidated by armed rebels, and also reported on the international investigation team as being at the site and given the same treatment, ie shots fired over heads and only limited access to the crash scene.

So whos telling the truth ?

The Russians who say the team hasnt been to the site because they are detained in Kiev ?
or these guys

A team of 17 investigators from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe were allowed to examine the wreckage for about 75 minutes, before being forced out by gunmen.
"They did not have the freedom of movement that they need to do their job," OSCE chairman Thomas Greminger told Reuters by telephone.
"The crash site is not sealed off. In the current circumstances, they were not able to help securing this corridor that would allow access for those that would want to investigate."
He also told a press conference that full access was blocked by "local, illegally-armed groups present on the ground".

An OSCE spokeswoman said shots were fired during the visit, but said OSCE monitors were not shot at and no-one was hurt.

Malaysia Airlines MH17: International investigators unable to secure access to crash site of downed jet - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)


For me the evidence is overwelming that its Russia whos lying about this.

Why ?

Russia's version of the story is not backed up by the facts, western news crews have managed to get to and film the site, they have filmed the team Russia claims is being detained by Ukraine at the site.

The consiracy theorys rely on this being a deliberate event, but it seems to me this was more likely an accident.

While its not impossible that all the evidence pinning this on Russia is false, Im satisfied the Russian claim the OSCE team hasnt been to the site because the Ukrainians are detaining them in Kiev is a lie.

Australian media would have reported that, we have no real dog in the fight as far as this conflict is concerned.

New intelligence points finger at Russians as possible supplier of missile to rebel separatists | News.com.au

 

[mike]

Another aspect that makes me suspect Russia is they already claim a degree of seperation from 2 of the 3 scenarios

The Kremlin's Power Over the Rebels
While there has been much debate over how much influence Moscow actually has over the rebels, who voluntarily swear allegiance to the Kremlin, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has repeatedly stressed that observers "should not exaggerate" Russia's sway over the rebels.
"Moscow cannot tell the separatists what to do," Peskov told the Kommersant business daily earlier this month.

Probe Into Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 Off to a Bumpy Start | News | The Moscow Times

We have 3 scenarios

Ukraine did it
Seperatists did it, but Russia has no involvement/control over them
Seperatists and or russian special OPs did it and the system used was of Russian origin

Russia only stands to be in the poo if its the third option.

And were it the first option, Russia is uniquely placed to have proof of that

Mr Hammond earlier told Andrew Marr on BBC1: 'The Russians will have probably more information about this incident than anyone. They are very close by, this is only a few miles from the Russian border, they have got lots of military planes in the area, they are saying nothing.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2699170/Is-BUK-missile-launcher-shot-MH17-smuggled-Russia-Motorist-captures-military-truck-carrying-BUK-M1-border-town.html#ixzz383mDb6BT

Russia doesnt need to hide anything in the first two scenario's only in the case of the third one do they have anything to hide.

Despite being in a position to have evidence Ukraine did it, they have offered none, They have instead done everything they can to cover up the evidence.

Buk launchers have been smuggled back to Russia
They have told the seperatists they want the black boxes
The alleged intercepted discussion post event features this statement

'Grek': Is there anything left of the weapon?

At this point in the conversation Grek knows its a civilian plane, and wants to know if there is anything left of the weapon. (that shot it down)

More and more the clues point to Russia having a direct responsibility in this imo

They have no reason to hide and cover up otherwise

 

[flipper]

So whos telling the truth ?
For me the evidence is overwelming that its Russia whos lying about this.
The consiracy theorys rely on this being a deliberate event, but it seems to me this was more likely an accident.

Australian media would have reported that, we have no real dog in the fight as far as this conflict is concerned.

Who is telling the truth?. I am inclined to say nobody but I think your answer of using the best evidence that you can gather to judge, who is telling the truth, is the best one. You have been following the reports much more closely than I have.
I have difficulty believing the west since the conflict is happening on Russia's borders and not in E.U. or North America. That means for me the U.S. is stirring up trouble for Russia. I admit that this is my world view.
Yes it being a accident makes sense. Confused, aggressive people, with hair trigger weapons make an accident that kills many people all to easy. I have one problem with it being an accident which is; with the missile system being so sophisticated, how do you accidentally push the wrong button and shoot down an passenger jet?
It is true that Australia has no real dog in this fight but does it not always follow the United States government line on events? I know that my government (the one in Ottawa) is always in agreement with United States policies.
Perhaps stonehart's idea of wait and see is best. It seems the truth comes out when the immediate importance of the situation is over.

 

[mike]

As far as it being an accident, we need to keep in mind the allegation is that these were BUK Mk one systems involved

Additionally a non-cooperative threat classification system was installed, allowing targets to be classified without IFF via analysis of return radar signals.

So it likely didnt use IFF data, just a radar return. At that height a visual ID is not likely.

"This is really complicated equipment. A person from the street can no more step in and operate it than he could suddenly become an airline pilot," says Igor Korotchenko, director of the independent Center of Analysis of the World Arms Trade in Moscow.
"Trained officers need at least 6 months of additional training to run a BUK system. It needs a whole, well prepared team to make it work."

If the transcripts weve seen from alleged rebels, some of which were deleted soon after, we get a reasonable picture of mistaken identity and a sense that they were not expecting anything other than military aircraft in the area, since the seperatists dont have any aircraft, Its easy to see why a radar return might have been assumed to have been an antonov 26 transport plane as the transcripts suggest they thought they had hit.

They had downed one of these 3 days earlier, and previously a jet and a helicoptor. So the form was there for downing aircraft.


On the dog in the fight issue, i should clarify

Had the international team been detained by Ukraine in Kiev, the ABC would have reported that imo

Although funded and owned by the government, the ABC remains editorially independent as ensured through the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Act 1983.[2]

Australian Broadcasting Corporation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Both sides of Australian politics have complained they have not been given a fair go by the ABC as the politics and criticism section details. The current Govt have accused it of being unpatriotic. In short it doesnt kiss the Govts ass

In January 2014, Prime Minister Tony Abbott criticised the ABC for being unpatriotic due to its reporting on the documents provided by the NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden, whom Abbott described as a "traitor"

So if the international investigation team, that Russia has claimed were "not allowed" to visit the site being detained in Kiev by Ukraine as claimed on Russian TV, the ABC would have reported that imo

Add to that the resignation over lies story

Russia Today reporter quits over 'lies' in reporting MH17 plane story

Im getting a strong sense its Russia who is lying about this and for obvious reasons

 

[mike]

The Buk, also called SA-11 or SA-17, is a large ground-to-air missile that can reach a maximum altitude between 11,000 and 25,000 metres depending on the version.
Guided by a radar station on the ground, it would be powerful enough to bring down a large aircraft with a single hit, but not accurate enough to discern between a civilian airliner and a military transport aircraft, experts say.
This type of missile is known to be operated by both the Russian and Ukrainia armed forces, the International Business Times reported.
Larry Johnson, a former CIA official with counterterrorism experience, told Associated Press that if the rebels have a Buk system it is entirely possible that they could have mistaken the civilian airliner for a military transport aircraft before they fired a missile.
"The Buk uses a radar acquisition system for targeting," he said. "These aren't highly trained FAA air traffic controllers. You're tracking something on radar, you see a dot, you get confused. I don't think it was deliberate. I think it was mistaken identity."

MH17: What is a Buk missile launcher? | Stuff.co.nz


The Associated Press reported seeing the weapon - which resembles a launcher mounted on top of a tank - in the eastern Ukrainian town of Snizhne earlier on Thursday.
Justin Bronk, with the Royal United Services Institute, told AP he believes that if a Buk SA-11 system was used, he is "almost certain" it was supplied by Russia.
"My personal hunch is that given the military setbacks that the separatists have suffered of late, and the Ukrainian military's increasingly confident use of airpower, Russian authorities decided to send a few SA-11 systems across into the Donetsk area," he said.
"However, I also highly suspect that the separatists did not intend to shoot down an airliner, but probably thought they were targeting a Ukrainian transport at high altitude, he said.


I think this is exactly what happened, the Ukraine had air superiority, the Russians decided to even the odds by giving the seperatists BUKs, which is perhaps more conservative than using Russian fighter planes to counter the Ukraine air forces.

 

[mike]

The Likely Culprits
What appears to have happened is that pro-Russian rebels mistakenly aimed at the MH17 flight, probably in the belief that it was a Ukrainian military transport jet of the kind they regularly attack. But it’s impossible to believe that they could have successfully hit their target without radar and other logistical support from the Russian military which, again, was probably unaware of the plane’s real identity. US intelligence agencies, which hold the largest quantity of electronic evidence available to piece together the final minutes of flight MH17, privately concede that this explanation is the most likely.
The race is on to collect as much evidence on the scene of the disaster as possible, and that would be the focus of the emergency UN Security Council debate which will take place today. But that, too, is easier said than done. For the area in which the MH17 place crashed is also one in which pro-Russian rebels operate, and some of them may now try to hide material evidence: there are persistent rumours in Ukraine that rebels have already spirited away key bits of evidence, such as the aeroplane’s ‘black box’ which records every action undertaken by the crew before the plane’s crash.
Still, incriminating evidence against Russia keeps popping up. Igor Strelkov, the Russian rebels’ commander in the area where the plane was hit, is on record as boasting about the downing of what he considered to be a Ukrainian aircraft at about the same time as the destruction of the MH17 flight.

RUSI - The Downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17: Russia in the Dock

 

[Bob Watson]

this just in:
Russian government caught changing Wikipedia entry on Malaysia Airlines Flight 17: report - NY Daily News

MH17 Wikipedia Page: Edits Show Russian Government Changing the Narrative : World : Latin Post

 

[mike]

Igor Girkin, a Ukrainian separatist leader also known as Strelkov, claimed responsibility on a popular Russian social-networking site for the downing of what he thought was a Ukrainian military transport plane shortly before reports that Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 had crashed near the rebel held Ukrainian city of Donetsk.
After news emerged that a commercial airliner had been taken down and its 295 passengers and crew likely killed Mr. Girkin reportedly erased his claims from his page on VKontakte, a Russian social media site that's similar to Facebook
The records of internet archive site The Wayback Machine (WM) appear to confirm that Girkin made such a claim and erased it soon thereafter.

Web evidence points to pro-Russia rebels in downing of MH17 (+video) - CSMonitor.com

 

[flipper]

Igor Girkin, a Ukrainian separatist leader also known as Strelkov, claimed responsibility on a popular Russian social-networking site for the downing of what he thought was a Ukrainian military transport plane shortly before reports that Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 had crashed near the rebel held Ukrainian city of Donetsk.
After news emerged that a commercial airliner had been taken down and its 295 passengers and crew likely killed Mr. Girkin reportedly erased his claims from his page on VKontakte, a Russian social media site that's similar to Facebook
The records of internet archive site The Wayback Machine (WM) appear to confirm that Girkin made such a claim and erased it soon thereafter.

Web evidence points to pro-Russia rebels in downing of MH17 (+video) - CSMonitor.com

All that you say makes good sense!

 

[storge]

Well, the "confession" by the Donbass militants has been debunked: apparently it was posted on yt BEFORE the plane crashed!

On "access" to the site, I've been watching CBC, BBC, CNN and Russian news. All sides want to control who gets the evidence. I think it's significant the Kiev neo-Nazi regime (I said it) classifed the radio communications between the plane and ATC right after it happened.

Is there any evidence a BUK AS-300 system shot down the plane? No. It all comes from the neo-Nazis in Kiev. Who can't get their story straight regarding this, btw.

I have little doubt it was shot down by Ukrainian Air Force jet fighters, who have been targeting civilians for over a month now. The "rebels" haven't.

Why Malaysia Airlines twice? Who has it in for Malaysia? Well, as in so many of these cases, the rivalry is fiercest between close neighbors. In Malaysia's case their main rival is Indonesia, which has a serious DUTCH connection. What US president is a citizen of Indonesia? I have no idea. Jimmy Carter?

 

[stonehart]

Just to throw more fuel on the flames... hey some men just want to watch the world burn.

What Did US Spy Satellites See in Ukraine? | Consortiumnews

 

[Wade]

It may be a little simplistic argument but I would think that given the rebel stonewalling of recovery teams to the area I'd look towards them, the separatists missed cashing in on a propaganda goldmine by opening the gates and allow tbe world press in to see what the Ukrainians did. Instead it appears that even the separatists may have been fooled by any possible deception also their stonewalling has reasonably caused suspicion of sanitizing the crime scene.

 

[stonehart]

It may be a little simplistic argument but I would think that given the rebel stonewalling of recovery teams to the area I'd look towards them, the separatists missed cashing in on a propaganda goldmine by opening the gates and allow tbe world press in to see what the Ukrainians did. Instead it appears that even the separatists may have been fooled by any possible deception also their stonewalling has reasonably caused suspicion of sanitizing the crime scene.

True enough.

Like I said in an above post the whole situation is murky as all merry hell.

 

[mike]

Well, the "confession" by the Donbass militants has been debunked: apparently it was posted on YT BEFORE the plane crashed!

Id be interested in any links you have about this, i cant find any.

The russians are saying some of the intercepts were fake

Russian Ambassador Calls Militia Phone Call Intercepts Fake | World | RIA Novosti

But thats not the same intel as the stuff posted on VKontakte (it wasnt YT)

Heres the wayback archive

Сводки от Стрелкова Игоря Ивановича | ВКонтакте

 

[stonehart]

Id be interested in any links you have about this, i cant find any.

The russians are saying some of the intercepts were fake

Russian Ambassador Calls Militia Phone Call Intercepts Fake | World | RIA Novosti

But thats not the same intel as the stuff posted on VKontakte (it wasnt YT)

Heres the wayback archive

Сводки от Стрелкова Игоря Ивановича | ВКонтакте

You know Mike I am at the point now with all of this that I don't believe anyone at all.. they are all full of shit.

Yeah reactionary I know but hell the world is being driven into conflict by power drunk mad men.

 

[mike]

For me the evidence still points at the seperatists.
They had form its as simple as that

BBC News - Ukraine military plane shot down as fighting rages

No one doubts they did this, they dont deny it in fact openly boast they did it, whilst not flying at quite the same height at mh17, it was still high enough to have required something more than a shoulder mounted SAM (Typical max range is 15,000 feet)

A Ukrainian military transport aircraft has been shot down in the east, amid fighting with pro-Russian separatist rebels, Ukrainian officials say.
They say the An-26 plane was hit at an altitude of 6,500m (21,325ft).
The plane was targeted with "a more powerful missile" than a shoulder-carried missile, "probably fired" from Russia. The crew survived, reports say.
Russia has made no comment. Separately, Nato reported a Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border.
A Nato official confirmed to the BBC that the alliance had observed a significant increase of Russian troops, bringing their number to up to 12,000.

And check this out

Vesti.ru russian media site june 29

Вести.Ru: Небо над Донецком будут защищать зенитно-ракетные комплексы "Бук"

Небо над Донецком будут защищать зенитно-ракетные комплексы "Бук"

translated

The sky over Donetsk will defend anti-aircraft missiles "Beech"

Deeper in the article

Donetsk militia captured military defense part A-1402. Point defense is a division of Missile Forces and equipped with self-propelled anti-aircraft missile systems "Buk". This is the second division of the Air Force, which passed under the control of militias in recent days.
'>One part surrendered voluntarily,

But digging into this story it may have been a cover story for simply giving them Buk's

The PJ Tatler » Did the Russians Plant a Cover Story to Hand Separatists the BUK Missile System? (Updated)

However, on July 14th we ran a story that one news agency, TV Zvezda, had run a report that a Buk was captured by separatists who stole it from the Ukrainian military. The problem, however, is that TV Zvezda is the official news agency for the Russian Ministry of Defense, and they are the only source for this story. In other words, if the Russian military were going to give the separatists a Buk, they would need to plant a story about how the separatists got the Buk in the first place, and they’d likely use TV Zvezda to do it.
Today, AP reporters did see a Buk in eastern Ukraine — the first time one has been seen.
The timing makes sense. The Malaysian airliner is the third aircraft to crash in the region in the past couple of days. The first was a Ukrainian military cargo transport. The second was a fighter jet. Both of those were shot down by the pro-Russian rebels. The third would be MH17.
The tactic of handing the rebels such a system but using a cover story alleging that it was stolen makes sense as well, for the very reasons that we are seeing today. If the Russians directly gave those weapons to the rebels, and they turn and kill 23 Americans and more than 200 others either by mistake or intentionally, the Russians are directly linked to the murder of Americans and in civilian aviation. But a cover story gives them a fig leaf to hide behind, and an angle for the US to escape taking any retaliatory action if it so chooses. A cover story is practically standard KGB craft.

 

[ALPHA ROMEO UNIFORM]

Not a surprise someone or groups always wants to make a buck ? Wonder what gold transactions were made prior and after the tragic event?
Gold lifts on geopolitical concerns | News.com.au

 

[mike]

The video is posted by the separatist “Novorossy” channel. “Novorossy” is how the separatists call themselves now, as opposed to “Ukrainians.”
At 0:47 they were speculating if the plane was being shot at and that someone had hit it. At that point a loud voice says, laughing, “So it was worth bringing it in,” possibly referring to the Buk anti-aircraft missile launcher that was seen around the area earlier in the morning.


The PJ Tatler » Did Pro-Russian Rebels Shoot This Video of the MH17 Impact?