What World Under Climate Change

[mike]

Climate change isn’t the problem. A population bomb is killing us - MarketWatch

World’s top problem is overpopulation, not climate - MarketWatch

Dont get me wrong we should be adopting best practise on this issue, we should be reducing our emissions. But if we get distracted by focusing on this one aspect we wont fix all the other factors that will wipe us out.

 

[ALPHA ROMEO UNIFORM]

Nope! You are completely wrong with this statement. Pretty much like saying that the sky is green and the moon is made of cheese.

I assume you make this statement based on the fact that you're a climate scientist?

No I am not a climate change scientist and are you ? However, I don't need to be told by a element of our society which is funded by lefties institutions who use it as form of taxation. Load of code wallop and our planet been changing through the centuries which political right wing scientist have suggested and give me a break on the academic boasting.

 

[ALPHA ROMEO UNIFORM]

What is going to effect more people is the climate changing. Wars are in our power (more or less) to say no to - climate change is beyond us now. It is engaged. No recourse but to manage it. We can choose not to war with each other.

General consensus now across the board - no outliers now - is that we are well-and-good cooked, literally. Were we to stop CO2 emissions on a dime in the instant, that would be a good thing, but the system is in motion. Inertial forces are in play regardless of human action at this point. The dragon has been waked. We can only manage the situation now - and we will (imo). We are in the process of trying to figure out what the 'new normal' is and will be. The systems igniting are very complicated. We definitely don't have all the answers.

This is just me but I believe now that the sea-rise is a given (say goodbye to most of Florida). The East Coast by 2100 will be unrecognizable. Really massive cultural/economic changes will engage around 2050 and continue from then on (we are seeing the pre-history of those changes now). Consider: they are going to have to move entire cities, or significant parts of cities (like Miamai, NYC, Boston). Some cities, like Miami, will disappear in total. Inland will be a good place to be - though sea-rise will have some impact anywhere that is on the water, and inland will be filled with all the re-located inhabitants of the emptied cities. (This will be a slow process, complicated by the emergence of desert in the far west of the continental US - and Mexico: Think in terms of Elevation!)

If there are outliers now, it is those who say we are not yet past the tipping point, though fact is, there are many tipping points, and some we cannot know about except in retrospect. Makes making the call difficult.

One tipping point that is having tremendous consequences even as we speak is the warming of the oceans. (Massive die-offs in the marine food-chain do not bode well for any of us on the planet). That is happening - and 'cooling the oceans' is not going to be fast like cooling on the landmasses. That's the inertial forces - once set in motion we will be dealing with the consequences for a very, very, very long time. One thing is certain, the world you and I have known is not the world we currently are in, and what the world will be, we have been finding that our prognostications (computer models) have been too conservative. Sobering, but it means we have a lot of work to do. Never say die. I do believe humankind will figure it out. We have to - the physical world is too important to the spiritual world. ( My bias showing).

Your reply was fair and not loaded with "left wing agenda" which has ruin the case for Climate Change (fear-mongering). Humans (civilisation have come and gone ) part of "nature "decides our climate and is connected by the solar system and the Sun effects the Earth which is connected and affected by its solar storms which heat and cool the planet.

 

[Angel of Ioren]

No I am not a climate change scientist and are you ? However, I don't need to be told by a element of our society which is funded by lefties institutions who use it as form of taxation. Load of code wallop and our planet been changing through the centuries which political right wing scientist have suggested and give me a break on the academic boasting.

This has nothing to do with politics. Not a climate scientist, but all of them pretty much agree that this has nothing to do with the solar system.

 

[Tyger]

Your reply was fair and not loaded with "left wing agenda" which has ruin the case for Climate Change (fear-mongering). Humans (civilisation have come and gone ) part of "nature "decides our climate and is connected by the solar system and the Sun effects the Earth which is connected and affected by its solar storms which heat and cool the planet.

Even if what you say - that the sun and solar system (I'll grant you the solar system, even though I'm not sure what you base this on) effect the earth (certainly the sun does) - so saying does not pre-empt the CO2 problem. We do know something about the sun's impact on the earth but not enough to make the sweeping claim you are making - namely, that the sun (solar system) alone accounts for the climate changing. That is a a sweeping statement not borne out by any of the science (facts) we have at our disposal.

 

[Tyger]

This has nothing to do with politics. Not a climate scientist, but all of them pretty much agree that this has nothing to do with the solar system.

Correct. It's possible that here-to-fore unconsidered elements (like electromagnetism) may have effects, but we are very far from understanding the mechanism for such, let alone having sufficient proofs at this juncture. What we do have is CO2, and we know persuasively what CO2 - in excess - can, and is, doing.

 

[ALPHA ROMEO UNIFORM]

Climate Change is theory simple and theory can be proven wrong overtime lets wait and see.

 

[Tyger]

Climate Change is theory simple

'Theory simple' - do you mean 'simply theory'? As in, 'not fact, just a theory'? This thread accepts Climate Change, not as a theory, but as a fact that we are experiencing. Climate Change, as a theory, has made predictions in the last 100 years. Those predictions are coming to pass. That is one of the tests of a viable theory.

and theory can be proven wrong over time

They can, that's true - to an extent. Generally, however, theories are modified over time.

Example, in Geology we had the Theory of Uniformitarianism, which now, due to evidence, includes the idea of periodic catastrophes. Uniformitarianism has not been pre-empted, just augmented, refined and deepened.

I would suggest the same will happen with the theory of Climate Change.

lets wait and see.

You can do that, but given what we know at this juncture, it is remiss for humanity to shrug and say 'let's see what happens'. Too much is on the line to be complacent. JMO.

 

[Tyger]

So, given the above, the thread's intention is to explore what the world will be like under Climate Change. If it's impossible to accept the premise, I could see where one would not be interested in the intellectual exercise, exploring all the possibilities, and facts. Makes sense, and no hard feelings.

 

[Constance]

New rice variety could feed the planet without warming it | Science/AAAS | News

 

[Tyger]

In Greenland, climate change is already hard at work
LINK: In Greenland, climate change is already hard at work - CBS News

TEXT: "The annual "State of the Climate" report released Thursday said 2014 was the warmest year on record going back 135 years. Temperatures continued to rise, and glaciers kept shrinking. The impact has been dramatic in Greenland, the huge ice-covered island between the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans.

"Almost 8 years ago to the day in 2007, it was 35 degrees below zero on top of Greenland's vast ice sheet. Strong winds and blowing snow were more the norm for researchers there. This summer, the sun is shining and the ice is thinning; it's 27 degrees above zero -- 62 degrees warmer. Researchers are trying to determine if the warming is a trend.

"The world's second largest ice body, Greenland is more than one quarter the size of the continental United States and its ice is nearly two miles high at its thickest. Since 1989, researchers have been ferried to the Greenland Environmental Observatory.

"University of Montana glaciologist Joel Harper has been camping each summer on Greenland's ice sheet, studying how glaciers and ice move. "Greenland stores an enormous amount of water in the form of ice," Harper said. "In recent decades it's certainly been melting more than is replenished from snow fall and that's causing sea level to come up." Evidence of the increased ice melt can be seen from the air in the form of blue pools. Satellite images show that on the warmest day this month, half the ice sheet's surface was melting, double the norm for this time of year. As glaciers melt, they darken, which combined with sediment and global air pollution (black carbon) further speeds up the process.

"University of Colorado researcher Michael O'Neill, who has been measuring pollutants here since 2008, said: "In Greenland, the farther north you go dirtier the air becomes. Most of the industry is in the northern hemisphere and that's where we see the highest concentrations of the manmade chemicals." The darker the ice, the faster it melts into the ocean. "Greenland contributes about 40 percent of current sea level rise," Harper said.

"Over the past century, the world's oceans have risen 4 to 8 inches. By the end of this century, scientists predict sea level rise will be the greatest environmental threat to coastal cities from Miami to Mumbai."​

 

[DissectionStalker]

Even if what you say - that the sun and solar system (I'll grant you the solar system, even though I'm not sure what you base this on) effect the earth (certainly the sun does) - so saying does not pre-empt the CO2 problem. We do know something about the sun's impact on the earth but not enough to make the sweeping claim you are making - namely, that the sun (solar system) alone accounts for the climate changing. That is a a sweeping statement not borne out by any of the science (facts) we have at our disposal.

Btw, did you go to the electric universe gathering in AZ that you were interested in? Have you formed any conclusions about it, as you seemed quite interested in it awhile back. Thanks.

 

[Tyger]

I was going to talk more about what I think the near-future will look like under Climate Change when this - the link below - popped into my feed. It's to do with a new study by Hansen et al regarding sea-level-rise. I hadn't been aware of it - but it (for sure) is startling news. I obviously haven't read the report yet, and it has yet to be peer-reviewed, but we have known for several years that the changes are taking place far more rapidly than what conservative, more circumspect, analysis has dared suggest.

As stated, I am already of the opinion that 2050 will be when stuff will really start hitting the fan, but a 10-foot sea-level-rise by 2065 is pretty wild. As the article suggests, given the unusual publishing mode Hansen has chosen, the peer review in 'real time' will be far more rigorous. Just as well.

A 10 foot sea-rise is catastrophe. Forget wars - we are talking about the winking out of major nations (Japan) and significant changes with US geography. Europe will be unrecognizable - many nations will be no more. Sections of Asia will go under. It's going to be very interesting, if one can use such a word to describe what will be a massive alteration done in slow motion. Massive population movement is just the tip-of-the-iceberg.

BTW - I feel I need to say, because of reactions I have seen to prognostications in this realm, that this is not an imminent danger to anyone's life in the next handful of years. It is an imminent danger to humanity over the next decades (possibly) - but the fight-or-flight adrenaline response is not helpful, and is in fact counter-productive. I see it as a problem that has to be solved. Clear thinking is needed, not emotionalism. JMO.

I will be very interested to see the peer review process unfold. It will be a global event. Very unusual.

Earth's best-known climate scientist issues bombshell sea-level warning - July 21, 2015
LINK: James Hansen issues sea-level warning - Business Insider

TEXT: "In what may prove to be a turning point for political action on climate change, a breathtaking new study casts extreme doubt about the near-term stability of global sea levels.

"The study — written by James Hansen, NASA's former lead climate scientist, and 16 coauthors, many of whom are considered among the top in their fields — concludes that glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica will melt 10 times as fast as previous consensus estimates, resulting in a sea-level rise of at least 10 feet in as little as 50 years. [That's 2065]

"The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, brings new importance to a feedback loop in the ocean near Antarctica that results in cooler freshwater from melting glaciers forcing warmer, saltier water underneath the ice sheets, speeding up the melting rate.

"Hansen, who is known for being alarmist and also right, acknowledges that his study implies change far beyond previous consensus estimates. In a conference call with reporters, he said he hoped the new findings would be "substantially more persuasive than anything previously published." I certainly find them to be.

"To come to their findings, the authors used a mixture of paleoclimate records, computer models, and observations of current rates of sea-level rise, but "the real world is moving somewhat faster than the model," Hansen says.

"Hansen's study does not attempt to predict the precise timing of the feedback loop, only that it is "likely" to occur this century. The implications are mindboggling: In the study's likely scenario, New York City — and every other coastal city on the planet — may have only a few more decades of habitability left. That dire prediction, in Hansen's view, requires "emergency cooperation among nations."

"We conclude that continued high emissions will make multi-meter sea level rise practically unavoidable and likely to occur this century. Social disruption and economic consequences of such large sea level rise could be devastating. It is not difficult to imagine that conflicts arising from forced migrations and economic collapse might make the planet ungovernable, threatening the fabric of civilization.

"The science of ice-melt rates is advancing so fast that scientists have generally been reluctant to put a number to what is essentially an unpredictable, nonlinear response of ice sheets to a steadily warming ocean. With Hansen's new study, that changes in a dramatic way. One of the study's coauthors is Eric Rignot, whose own study last year found that glacial melt from West Antarctica now appears to be "unstoppable. Chris Mooney, writing for Mother Jones, called that study a "holy shit" moment for the climate.

"One necessary note of caution: Hansen's study comes via a nontraditional publishing decision by its authors. The study will be published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, an open-access "discussion" journal, and will not have formal peer review before its appearance online later this week. The complete discussion draft circulated to journalists was 66 pages long and included more than 300 references. The peer review will take place in real time, with responses to the work by other scientists also published online.

"Hansen said this publishing timeline was necessary to make the work public as soon as possible before global negotiators meet in Paris later this year. Still, the lack of traditional peer review and the fact that this study's results go far beyond what has been previously published will most likely bring increased scrutiny.

"On Twitter, Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist whose work focuses on Greenland and the Arctic, was skeptical of such enormous rates of near-term sea-level rise, though she defended Hansen's decision to publish in a nontraditional way.

"In 2013, Hansen left his post at NASA to become a climate activist because, in his words, "as a government employee, you can't testify against the government."

"In a wide-ranging December 2013 study, conducted to support Our Children's Trust, a group advancing legal challenges to lax greenhouse-gas-emissions policies on behalf of minors, Hansen called for a "human tipping point" — essentially, a social revolution — as one of the most effective ways of combating climate change, though he still favors a bilateral carbon tax agreed upon by the US and China as the best near-term climate policy.

"In the new study, Hansen writes, "there is no morally defensible excuse to delay phase-out of fossil-fuel emissions as rapidly as possible."

"Asked whether Hansen had plans to personally present the new research to world leaders, he said: "Yes, but I can't talk about that today." What's still uncertain is whether, like with so many previous dire warnings, world leaders will be willing to listen."
​

 

[Constance]

As I recall, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics was the journal in which Hansen published his first major paper concerning the inevitable tipping point more than a decade ago. He's absolutely right to publish this new paper online first so that the public can observe the discussions that will follow. Let us hope that this does "prove to be a turning point for political action on climate change."

 

[Tyger]

All graphics (and there are many) are within the link -

Arctic Ocean Temperatures Keep Rising
LINK: Arctic News: Arctic Ocean Temperatures Keep Rising

TEXT: "People's emissions are causing the planet to heat up and more than 93% of this heat goes into the oceans. People have measured ocean temperatures for a long time. Reliable records go back to at least 1880. Ever since records began, the oceans were colder than they are now. NOAA analysis shows that, on the Northern Hemisphere, the 20th century average for June is 16.4°C (61.5°F). In June 2015, it was a record 0.87°C (1.57°F) higher.

"Back in history, there have been times when it was warmer. The last time when it was warmer than today, during the Eemian Period, peak temperature was only a few tenths of a degree higher than today, according to the IPCC. In those days, there was huge melting, accompanied by extreme storms and sea levels that were 5 to 9 m higher than today.

"In many ways, the situation now already looks worse than it was in the Eemian. "The warm Atlantic surface current was weaker in the high latitude during the Eemian than today", says Henning Bauch. Furthermore, as illustrated by above image, contained in ocean temperature data from 1880 for the Northern Hemisphere is a polynomial trendline that points at a rise of almost 2°C by 2030. This indicates that temperatures across the Arctic Ocean could soon be even higher than the peak temperature was back in the Eemian Period. Indeed, the Arctic Ocean temperature is rising at a terrifying pace, the more so given that there seems to be no end in sight soon for this rise. This rise of almost 2°C by 2030 is not limited to the month of June. As the image below shows [withn link], it applies to the 12-months period from July 2014 to June 2015 as well.

"In some places, the Arctic Ocean is already very warm. Sea surface temperatures around North America have increased to very high levels and they are threatening to further raise the temperature of the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic sea ice is on the verge of collapse, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one and this one. This dramatic decline of the sea ice in 2015 is the result of a combination of factors, including:​

1. 1. High levels of greenhouse gases over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the screenshot below [within link] showing high carbon dioxide concentrations over the Arctic (from NASA video). Furthermore, methane levels are very high over the Arctic. An earlier image shows methane levels on July 17, 2015 (pm), as high as 2512 parts per billion and high methane levels north of Greenland, which also showed on an earlier image at this post.
   2. High levels of ocean heat in the North Atlantic, as illustrated by the image below showing high sea surface temperatures off the east coast of North America; much of this ocean heat will be carried by the Gulf Stream into the Arctic Ocean over the next few months.
   3. High sea surface temperatures in the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below. [within link]
   4. High air temperatures over North America and Russia extending over the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below showing a location well inside the Arctic Circle where temperatures as high as 37.1°C (98.78°F) were recorded on July 2, 2015. (green circle).
   5. Wildfires triggered by these heatwaves resulting in darkening compounds settling on snow and ice, making it more prone to melting, as illustrated by the image below showing smoke reaching high up into the Beaufort Sea on July 22, 2015.
   6. Very warm river water running into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below, showing sea surface temperatures as high as 19°C (66.2°F) off the coast of Alaska on July 19, 2015.

"The danger is that collapse of the sea ice will further accelerate warming in the Arctic, as sunlight that was previously reflected back into space and heat that previously went into melting then will all be absorbed by the Arctic. Furthermore, more open waters will increase the possibility of storms that can mix surface heat down to the bottom of the seafloor, and destabilize sediments that contain large amounts of methane in hydrates and free gas.

"Such feedbacks are further discussed at the feedbacks page, including the danger that further warming of the Arctic Ocean will unleash huge methane eruptions from the Arctic Ocean seafloor, in turn driving temperatures up even higher and causing more intense wildfires, heatwaves and further extreme weather events.

"The image below [within link] shows a non-linear trend that is contained in the temperature data that NASA has gathered over the years, as described in an earlier post. A polynomial trendline points at global temperature anomalies of over 4°C by 2060. Even worse, a polynomial trend for the Arctic shows temperature anomalies of over 4°C by 2020, 6°C by 2030 and 15°C by 2050, threatening to cause major feedbacks to kick in, including albedo changes and methane releases that will trigger runaway global warming that looks set to eventually catch up with accelerated warming in the Arctic and result in global temperature anomalies of 16°C by 2052. The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as discussed at the Climate Plan."​

 

[Tyger]

@mike, you will like this. It's a long one - 1:14:15. But a worthwhile time investment imo.

Arithmetic, Population and Energy - FULL LENGTH

TEXT: "Uploaded on Jan 26, 2012 [Given in 2000 (?) by internal evidence]: a presentation by: Dr. Albert A. Bartlett, Professor Emeritus, Department of Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder." [Professor Bartlett died on September 7, 2013.]

 

[Tyger]

In the above linked video, at approx 1:03:00 Professor Bartlett quotes Isaac Asimov -

"Democracy cannot survive overpopulation. Human dignity cannot survive overpopulation. Convenience and decency cannot survive overpopulation. As you put more and more people into the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears. It doesn't matter if someone dies, the more people there are, the less one individual matters."

 

[Tyger]

We are in a New Era - there is no getting around it. Rising sea-levels will not recede for centuries, even if we do the right things with energy. We are in a new world as we speak. We have to adapt to a coastline that is shifting in-land.

Coastlines (shorelines) are changing and there is no stopping the changes. For every inch of sea-level-rise, the average shoreline moves in-land by 300 feet (depends on elevations) - the length of a football field. For 'flat' Florida - which this speaker is addressing - that ratio is even higher, the land-loss is greater.

Sea level rise - fact & fiction: John Englander at TEDxBocaRaton

TEXT: "Published on Jun 11, 2014: Sea level is rising for the first time in thousands of years. Oceanographer John Englander, author of "High Tide On Main Street" explains why it is unstoppable, regardless of efforts to be 'green' and sustainable. Using powerful images, he encourages us to embrace the new reality that the shoreline is moving, that we begin to adapt, while we also try to slow the warming. It is a positive message, "a glass half full, rather than half empty" -- though the glass will get higher each decade."

 

[Tyger]

1 meter = 3.28 feet, so that 80 meters equals about 25 feet of sea rise - not predicted for another 300 years. This will all take place in slow-motion. We have to adapt. "With the methane bomb going off this will occur a lot faster than scientists believed. How fast? Oceans rose almost an inch between 2011 and 2013 and it is accelerating. Seeing an inch a year rise by 2017 is a reasonable estimate, and it will continue to accelerate."

Sea level rise on the US Gulf Coast

TEXT: "Uploaded on Nov 2, 2007: Check out the new HD version of this video! Potential sea level rise on the US Gulf Coast resulting from global warming and the complete melting of the polar ice sheets. This video shows sea level from the present-day location to the level estimated if the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt completely."

 

[Tyger]

John ENGLANDER 2/4/15 Melting Ice, Rising Seas, Shifting Shorelines: The New Reality

TEXT: "Published on Mar 12, 2015: We have entered a new era, one where the global melting of ice sheets will dramatically transform our world. Oceanographer & Author John Englander clearly will explain the latest science, put sea level rise into a historical perspective, and paint a vivid picture of what we can expect in the future. His best-selling book, High Tide On Main Street: Rising Sea Level and the Coming Coastal Crisis, explains the science behind sea level rise, the impending economic impacts, and the "intelligent adaptation" that all businesses and coastal communities must consider today."