Tyger
Paranormal Adept
Hello.
Purpose of thread is to review the changes being reported worldwide.
Climate Change is the kickstarter. There is far more afoot than 'just' that - though that's enough. Population is also a force. Pollution is a force. A shifting paradigm in how we view ourselves in the universe, both as a species, as a world, and as a consciousness (and this includes psychological, religious, political and spiritual aspects).
Climate Change is the raison d'être for the thread. It is a given, not a debate. There are innumerable threads where that "debate" can be waged, but not here. It is generally accepted that we are undergoing a change in climate worldwide. It is happening way ahead of schedule, by thousands of years - far faster than it would have ever happened 'on its own terms'. The deciding factor? CO2 produced by humans. We - our activities - appear to have been the kick that has gotten the ball rolling.
What does past climate change tell us about global warming?
LINK: What does past climate change tell us about global warming?
What the Science Says: "Greenhouse gasses, principally CO2, have controlled most ancient climate changes. This time around humans are the cause, mainly by our CO2 emissions. Scientific analysis of past climates shows that greenhouse gasses, principally CO2, have controlled most ancient climate changes. The evidence for that is spread throughout the geological record. This makes it clear that this time around humans are the cause, mainly by our CO2 emissions."
Climate Myth: "Climate's changed before: Climate is always changing. We have had ice ages and warmer periods when alligators were found in Spitzbergen. Ice ages have occurred in a hundred thousand year cycle for the last 700 thousand years, and there have been previous periods that appear to have been warmer than the present despite CO2 levels being lower than they are now. More recently, we have had the medieval warm period and the little ice age. (Richard Lindzen)"
TEXT: "Science has a good understanding of past climate changes and their causes, and that evidence makes the human cause of modern climate change all the more clear. Greenhouse gasses – mainly CO2, but also methane – have been implicated in most of the climate changes in Earth’s past. When they were reduced, the global climate became colder. When they were increased, the global climate became warmer. When changes were big and rapid (as they are today), the consequences for life on Earth were often dire – in some cases causing mass extinctions.
"So why is the myth wrong?
"The myth is wrong for two reasons:
"A rocky planet this far from the sun should be frozen solid and lifeless at an average temperature of -18°C (0°F). The fact that it isn’t is due to greenhouse gasses in theatmosphere, mainly CO2. These atmospheric gasses have been in a delicate balance with the Earth’s oceans, the biosphere, and even the geosphere (all the rocks and sediments). Whether it was frigid ice ages or the steamy climates of the Eocene and the age of the dinosaurs, every change in the Earth (like a decrease in the rate of tectonic platesubduction or an increase in the rate of mountain building) caused a proportional change in CO2 in the atmosphere and in the oceans, and every change in atmospheric CO2 caused a proportional reaction in global temperatures, climate and ocean chemistry.
"Ice ages
"Scientists have shown that CO2 and climate moved in lock-step throughout the Pleistoceneice ages. The ice ages were actually many pulses of cold glacial phases interspersed with warmer interglacials. These pulses had a distinct regularity caused by wobbles in Earth’s orbit around the Sun (Milankovitch cycles). When Earth’s orbit reduced the intensity of sunlight in the northern hemisphere, the Earth went into a glacial phase. When the orbital cycle brought increased the intensity of insolation in the northern hemisphere, ice sheets melted and we went into a warm interglacial. Because warmer oceans can dissolve less CO2, the CO2 levels see-sawed extremely closely with Earth’s temperature. It was a slow pace of change, taking tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and yes as the myth states, in the last million years the biggest orbit-induced cycles were every 100,000 years.
"But we know these orbital changes are not behind today's global warming. In fact our orbit dictates we should be cooling now, not warming.
"The Earth was indeed cooling over the last 6,000 years due to Earth's orbit, heading into the next glacial phase scheduled for about the year 3500 AD. But all that changed when we got to the industrial era. Global temperatures departed from that cooling trend, and instead rose parallel with our greenhouse gas emissions.
" CO2 doesn’t lag behind temperature
"Until 2012, Antarctic ice core data suggested CO2 may have lagged behind the warmingtrend by hundreds of years. This was used by skeptics to question the link between CO2 and climate. More recent studies, with much more precise correlation between ice cores and global temperature records, have shown that temperature and CO2 changed synchronously in Antarctica during the end of the last ice age, and globally CO2 rose slightly before global temperatures.
"Palm-fringed Arctic and balmy dinosaurs
"It’s true that at times in Earth's past the climate has been as warm or even warmer than temperatures projected for the end of this century and beyond. Aside from some warminterglacials, the average climate was last as warm as we expect in 2100 during the Pliocene epoch – before the emergence of the genus Homo which includes you and me. In that time, summer Arctic temperatures were 3°C (5°F) warmer than today, with CO2 levels similar to today’s and sea levels were 15-25m (50-82ft) higher than today. Rain-drenched forests fringed the Arctic Ocean at the time.
"Going further back to the Eocene, the world then was very warm and humid – on average 10°C (18°F) warmer than today. Lush swamp forests fringed the Arctic, inhabited by turtles, alligators, primates, tapirs, and the hippo-like Coryphodon (just as the myth claims). Lowland Antarctica was warm and covered in near-tropical vegetation, and London was a mangrove swamp as rainforests spread across much of the planet. Going back even further to the age of the dinosaurs, life flourished in a time of high CO2 and generally warm average temperatures with high sea levels. Even Antarctica was forested and supported a healthy population of dinosaurs.
"Sudden vs slow change
"Life flourished in the Eocene, the Cretaceous and other times of high CO2 in theatmosphere because the greenhouse gasses were in balance with the carbon in the oceans and the weathering of rocks. Life, ocean chemistry, and atmospheric gasses had millions of years to adjust to those levels.
"But there have been several times in Earth’s past when Earth's temperature jumped rapidly, in much the same way as they are doing today. Those times were caused by large and rapid greenhouse gas emissions, just like humans are causing today. In Earth's past the trigger for these greenhouse gas emissions was often unusually massive volcanic eruptions known as “Large Igneous Provinces,” with knock-on effects that included huge releases of CO2 and methane from organic-rich sediments. But there is no Large Igneous Province operating today, or anytime in the last 16 million years. Today’s volcanoes, in comparison, don’t even come close to emitting the levels of greenhouse gasses that humans do.
"Those rapid global warming events were almost always highly destructive for life, causing mass extinctions such as at the end of the Permian, Triassic, or even mid-Cambrian periods. The symptoms from those events (huge and rapid carbon emissions, a big rapid jump in global temperatures, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, widespread oxygen-starved zones in the oceans) are all happening today with human-caused climate change. The outcomes for life on Earth were often dire. The end Permian extinction saw around 90% of species go extinct, and it left tropical regions on the planet lethally hot, too hot for complex life to survive. The Triassic extinction was another, one of the 5 biggest mass extinctions in the geological record. Even in the end Cretaceous extinction, in which dinosaurs were finally wiped out by an asteroid impact, a major global-warming extinction event was already underway causing a major extinction within 150,000 years of the impact. That global warming 66 million years ago was due to catastrophic eruptions in India, which emitted a pulse of CO2 that sent global temperatures soaring by 7°C (13°F).
"So yes, the climate has changed before, and in most cases scientists know why. In all cases we see the same association between CO2 levels and global temperatures. And past examples of rapid carbon emissions offer no comfort at all for the likely outcome from today’s climate change."
Skeptical Science linked above is an excellent source of the current science, as well as 'debate'. It's website links to a library of hundreds (maybe thousands) of science research papers for back-up to every claim made.
One can have questions, of course, but every question invariably has an answer on-line somewhere - such as Skeptical Science. I don't think one should be looking for an in-depth 'education' in this area on a chat site not peopled with scientists nor with it as a direct focus. That's not saying that there are not exceedingly intelligent posters here with a considerable grasp of complicated facts. However, the conversations have taken place on several other threads here which are still extant, not even archived - so one's best bet is to go reading (and conversing) on those threads, if one seeks 'debate' on whether there is warming, whether it is human caused, etc..
Here we will look at the way the world is shifting - or must shift. What does the future hold? Apocalypse? Guns and violence? I don't think so. In fact, in times of great turmoil history seems to indicate that there are indeed the breakdowns, but there is also the re-forming into cooperative groups. IMO Cities will be vital in the future - not the places to flee from. Those that survive are not the one's who lose all civility and restraint and hole up in caves with a sprinkling of others. Rather they are the ones doomed to extinction. In the end it was always the barbarians who folded into the civilized world who survived, because in the end, that is the only route to survival. Cities will always be where the libraries are and sources of learning reside and renewal will originate. People together create safety and comfort - not isolated and apart. So I see a more cohesive world albeit local.
Hence, I am suggesting that the steady diet coming from Hollywood of societal breakdowns and roving bands of cannibals is overblown. In fact, I'd be keen to have a conversation about this divergence of views.
Whatever comes, I view the thread as exploring the possible world coming due to the changes afoot - climate change (caused by humans to whatever degree) being one. If you feel inclined, please join in.
Purpose of thread is to review the changes being reported worldwide.
Climate Change is the kickstarter. There is far more afoot than 'just' that - though that's enough. Population is also a force. Pollution is a force. A shifting paradigm in how we view ourselves in the universe, both as a species, as a world, and as a consciousness (and this includes psychological, religious, political and spiritual aspects).
Climate Change is the raison d'être for the thread. It is a given, not a debate. There are innumerable threads where that "debate" can be waged, but not here. It is generally accepted that we are undergoing a change in climate worldwide. It is happening way ahead of schedule, by thousands of years - far faster than it would have ever happened 'on its own terms'. The deciding factor? CO2 produced by humans. We - our activities - appear to have been the kick that has gotten the ball rolling.
What does past climate change tell us about global warming?
LINK: What does past climate change tell us about global warming?
What the Science Says: "Greenhouse gasses, principally CO2, have controlled most ancient climate changes. This time around humans are the cause, mainly by our CO2 emissions. Scientific analysis of past climates shows that greenhouse gasses, principally CO2, have controlled most ancient climate changes. The evidence for that is spread throughout the geological record. This makes it clear that this time around humans are the cause, mainly by our CO2 emissions."
Climate Myth: "Climate's changed before: Climate is always changing. We have had ice ages and warmer periods when alligators were found in Spitzbergen. Ice ages have occurred in a hundred thousand year cycle for the last 700 thousand years, and there have been previous periods that appear to have been warmer than the present despite CO2 levels being lower than they are now. More recently, we have had the medieval warm period and the little ice age. (Richard Lindzen)"
TEXT: "Science has a good understanding of past climate changes and their causes, and that evidence makes the human cause of modern climate change all the more clear. Greenhouse gasses – mainly CO2, but also methane – have been implicated in most of the climate changes in Earth’s past. When they were reduced, the global climate became colder. When they were increased, the global climate became warmer. When changes were big and rapid (as they are today), the consequences for life on Earth were often dire – in some cases causing mass extinctions.
"So why is the myth wrong?
"The myth is wrong for two reasons:
- First, to infer that humans can't be behind today's climate change because climate changed before humans is bad reasoning (a non-sequitur). Humans are changing theclimate today mainly via greenhouse gas emissions, the same mechanism that caused climate change before humans.
- Second, to imply we have nothing to fear from today's climate change is not borne out by the lessons from rapid climate changes in Earth's past.
"A rocky planet this far from the sun should be frozen solid and lifeless at an average temperature of -18°C (0°F). The fact that it isn’t is due to greenhouse gasses in theatmosphere, mainly CO2. These atmospheric gasses have been in a delicate balance with the Earth’s oceans, the biosphere, and even the geosphere (all the rocks and sediments). Whether it was frigid ice ages or the steamy climates of the Eocene and the age of the dinosaurs, every change in the Earth (like a decrease in the rate of tectonic platesubduction or an increase in the rate of mountain building) caused a proportional change in CO2 in the atmosphere and in the oceans, and every change in atmospheric CO2 caused a proportional reaction in global temperatures, climate and ocean chemistry.
"Ice ages
"Scientists have shown that CO2 and climate moved in lock-step throughout the Pleistoceneice ages. The ice ages were actually many pulses of cold glacial phases interspersed with warmer interglacials. These pulses had a distinct regularity caused by wobbles in Earth’s orbit around the Sun (Milankovitch cycles). When Earth’s orbit reduced the intensity of sunlight in the northern hemisphere, the Earth went into a glacial phase. When the orbital cycle brought increased the intensity of insolation in the northern hemisphere, ice sheets melted and we went into a warm interglacial. Because warmer oceans can dissolve less CO2, the CO2 levels see-sawed extremely closely with Earth’s temperature. It was a slow pace of change, taking tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and yes as the myth states, in the last million years the biggest orbit-induced cycles were every 100,000 years.
"But we know these orbital changes are not behind today's global warming. In fact our orbit dictates we should be cooling now, not warming.
"The Earth was indeed cooling over the last 6,000 years due to Earth's orbit, heading into the next glacial phase scheduled for about the year 3500 AD. But all that changed when we got to the industrial era. Global temperatures departed from that cooling trend, and instead rose parallel with our greenhouse gas emissions.
" CO2 doesn’t lag behind temperature
"Until 2012, Antarctic ice core data suggested CO2 may have lagged behind the warmingtrend by hundreds of years. This was used by skeptics to question the link between CO2 and climate. More recent studies, with much more precise correlation between ice cores and global temperature records, have shown that temperature and CO2 changed synchronously in Antarctica during the end of the last ice age, and globally CO2 rose slightly before global temperatures.
"Palm-fringed Arctic and balmy dinosaurs
"It’s true that at times in Earth's past the climate has been as warm or even warmer than temperatures projected for the end of this century and beyond. Aside from some warminterglacials, the average climate was last as warm as we expect in 2100 during the Pliocene epoch – before the emergence of the genus Homo which includes you and me. In that time, summer Arctic temperatures were 3°C (5°F) warmer than today, with CO2 levels similar to today’s and sea levels were 15-25m (50-82ft) higher than today. Rain-drenched forests fringed the Arctic Ocean at the time.
"Going further back to the Eocene, the world then was very warm and humid – on average 10°C (18°F) warmer than today. Lush swamp forests fringed the Arctic, inhabited by turtles, alligators, primates, tapirs, and the hippo-like Coryphodon (just as the myth claims). Lowland Antarctica was warm and covered in near-tropical vegetation, and London was a mangrove swamp as rainforests spread across much of the planet. Going back even further to the age of the dinosaurs, life flourished in a time of high CO2 and generally warm average temperatures with high sea levels. Even Antarctica was forested and supported a healthy population of dinosaurs.
"Sudden vs slow change
"Life flourished in the Eocene, the Cretaceous and other times of high CO2 in theatmosphere because the greenhouse gasses were in balance with the carbon in the oceans and the weathering of rocks. Life, ocean chemistry, and atmospheric gasses had millions of years to adjust to those levels.
"But there have been several times in Earth’s past when Earth's temperature jumped rapidly, in much the same way as they are doing today. Those times were caused by large and rapid greenhouse gas emissions, just like humans are causing today. In Earth's past the trigger for these greenhouse gas emissions was often unusually massive volcanic eruptions known as “Large Igneous Provinces,” with knock-on effects that included huge releases of CO2 and methane from organic-rich sediments. But there is no Large Igneous Province operating today, or anytime in the last 16 million years. Today’s volcanoes, in comparison, don’t even come close to emitting the levels of greenhouse gasses that humans do.
"Those rapid global warming events were almost always highly destructive for life, causing mass extinctions such as at the end of the Permian, Triassic, or even mid-Cambrian periods. The symptoms from those events (huge and rapid carbon emissions, a big rapid jump in global temperatures, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, widespread oxygen-starved zones in the oceans) are all happening today with human-caused climate change. The outcomes for life on Earth were often dire. The end Permian extinction saw around 90% of species go extinct, and it left tropical regions on the planet lethally hot, too hot for complex life to survive. The Triassic extinction was another, one of the 5 biggest mass extinctions in the geological record. Even in the end Cretaceous extinction, in which dinosaurs were finally wiped out by an asteroid impact, a major global-warming extinction event was already underway causing a major extinction within 150,000 years of the impact. That global warming 66 million years ago was due to catastrophic eruptions in India, which emitted a pulse of CO2 that sent global temperatures soaring by 7°C (13°F).
"So yes, the climate has changed before, and in most cases scientists know why. In all cases we see the same association between CO2 levels and global temperatures. And past examples of rapid carbon emissions offer no comfort at all for the likely outcome from today’s climate change."
Skeptical Science linked above is an excellent source of the current science, as well as 'debate'. It's website links to a library of hundreds (maybe thousands) of science research papers for back-up to every claim made.
One can have questions, of course, but every question invariably has an answer on-line somewhere - such as Skeptical Science. I don't think one should be looking for an in-depth 'education' in this area on a chat site not peopled with scientists nor with it as a direct focus. That's not saying that there are not exceedingly intelligent posters here with a considerable grasp of complicated facts. However, the conversations have taken place on several other threads here which are still extant, not even archived - so one's best bet is to go reading (and conversing) on those threads, if one seeks 'debate' on whether there is warming, whether it is human caused, etc..
Here we will look at the way the world is shifting - or must shift. What does the future hold? Apocalypse? Guns and violence? I don't think so. In fact, in times of great turmoil history seems to indicate that there are indeed the breakdowns, but there is also the re-forming into cooperative groups. IMO Cities will be vital in the future - not the places to flee from. Those that survive are not the one's who lose all civility and restraint and hole up in caves with a sprinkling of others. Rather they are the ones doomed to extinction. In the end it was always the barbarians who folded into the civilized world who survived, because in the end, that is the only route to survival. Cities will always be where the libraries are and sources of learning reside and renewal will originate. People together create safety and comfort - not isolated and apart. So I see a more cohesive world albeit local.
Hence, I am suggesting that the steady diet coming from Hollywood of societal breakdowns and roving bands of cannibals is overblown. In fact, I'd be keen to have a conversation about this divergence of views.
Whatever comes, I view the thread as exploring the possible world coming due to the changes afoot - climate change (caused by humans to whatever degree) being one. If you feel inclined, please join in.
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