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Extraordinary Claims DO NOT Require Extraordinary Evidence

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Michael Allen

Paranormal Adept
We may all know this famous quote (meme)--popularized by Carl Sagan--better than we know our own language and logic. It is in fact an erroneous claim at best--meaningless at worst. It is a claim for which the entire scientific establishment provides an ongoing counterexample.

Extraordinary claims are reduced to the ordinary framework of observation via the scientific method. Physical evidence is ordinary in the sense that it is intelligible (fits without the framework of human normality). The astronomical evidence for the theory of relativity came through ordinary events/observations which made better sense in a new framework of hypotheses. The precession of the perhelion of Mercury was an ordinary observation, and thus did not constitute "extraordinary" evidence for Einstien's theory of relativity. The "ordinariness" of the phenomenon was precisely what allowed for the interpretation of the same into an extraordinary framework of explanation. Had the phenomenon been "extraordinary" further tests would have been required to reduce the observations to a singularity of ordinary (i.e. tested and established) phenomenon. Even so, the reduction of extraordinary phenomena to the ordinary is precisely the work of science.

If Carl Sagan was right, there would be no such thing as the scientific method.

"Ordinary" is entirely subjective according to the researcher's point of view with respect to their object of study--by extension so is the notion of "extraordinary." However it is through the scientific method that societies come to grips with a point of view that can be dubbed "ordinary." Each passage through the trial and error of observation, experimentation, and guessing presents the scientific community with a new point of view concerning what is "ordinary." Thus, the claim that "extraordinary claims requires extraordinary evidence" is misleading. It is not a scientific claim, for there is no other method other than through trial, error, estimation and revision regarding the elucidation of what is subjectively determined as "extraordinary" with respect to the body of principles and bylaws of the universe. Thus the very method which Carl Sagan champions is shackled (unintentionally) by a philosophy which confines scientific development into the extraordinary. If the "evidence" of a claim is "extraordinary," then how does the researcher find ties into the body of bylaws and principles which are already established--presumably ordinary. How does the very revision of the bylaws of physics occur when all extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence?

The discovery of scientific principles through ordinary methods is the way of science, because science assumes a framework of unity in the laws of nature and the universe.



Ernest Rutherford's gold foil experiment demonstrated that the positive charge and mass of an atom is concentrated in a small, central atomic nucleus, disproving the then-popular plum pudding model of the atom (1911)

Robert Millikan's oil-drop experiment, which suggests that electric charge occurs as quanta (whole units), (1909)

Arthur Eddington leads an expedition to the island of Principe to observe a total solar eclipse (gravitational lensing). This allows for an observation of the bending of starlight under gravity, a prediction of Albert Einstein's theory of relativity. It was confirmed (although it was later shown that the margin of error was as great as the observed bending) (1919)

Source: List of experiments - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

What was so extraordinary in these experiments was the manner and ingenuity for which the evidence was collected--in other words, the manner for which the observational data was forced into something ordinary and intelligible by the experimenter. Had the final evidence had been as "extraordinary" as the claims, no actual scientific discovery would have occurred. The "extraordinary" evidence would be as dubious as the claim.

The scientific method is often viewed by the subject as a conduit from the extraordinary (or even unexplained) to the ordinary (explained). But this is not a scientific statment, but a subjective claim about the researcher's relationship to what they know and do not know.

A nuclear physicist would require far less evidence of a recent nuclear detonation than a scientist of the 19th century--i.e. a geiger counter vs. a full exposition and explanation of nuclear physics as well as the mechanics of the instrument to the 19th century scientist. Certainly the evidential requirement of the 19th century researcher would far surpass a simple measurement backed by 50-100 years of advanced future research.

Scientists should avoid predicating the notion of "extraordinary" or "ordinary" to their own findings. To do so casts a pretentious shadow over a particular field of inquiry and investigation.
 
We may all know this famous quote (meme)--popularized by Carl Sagan--better than we know our own language and logic. It is in fact an erroneous claim at best--meaningless at worst. It is a claim for which the entire scientific establishment provides an ongoing counterexample.

Pretty much agree with that. Any evidence of an extraterrestrial civilisation will be pretty extraordinary to us even if it is only an alien spoon. Any evidence is evidence. It can be the most ordinary of things such as a spoon ... or it could be a neutrino laser cannon. If both come from an alien civilisation then they're both equally extraordinary but just in different ways.

Carl Sagan's Cosmos was a pretty awesome tv series (got it on dvd for my partner a while back) but I never really agreed with him on most things. I kind of saw him as a bit of a hypocrite over the ufo question ... and I prefered Richard Feynman anyway. At least he used to frequent strip clubs and enthusiatically played the bongo drums :D.
 
You might wish to explain why you agree with Sagan (unless you want to end this with an argument from authority -- a fallacy).

(1) What does Sagan mean by this statement?
(2) Assuming you have (1), is the statement true?
(3) Then you might want to address the content of my post.
 
'paranormal devotees'...

---------- Post added at 04:36 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:59 AM ----------

dyingsun said:
'paranormal devotees'...

I know the quote was taken quite out of context, but it just 'rubbed me' the wrong way.
 
Another meme...countermeme I suppose. Here's a form of locution that categorizes a viewpoint as "cultic" or as a "belief" and thereby reducing its effectiveness in rational discourse. As much as I enjoy listening to the Paracast, its hosts overuse this--i.e. when one or the other says, "you know those ETH believers...etc"

While I am thinking about it...here are some other bad habits noted

(1) Throwing all paranormal events into the same pot and then wondering why a unified explanation is so illusive or mysterious (or at best contradictory).
(2) "Throwing out the baby with the bath water"--not very likely to restrain guilt by association (if one document of a set is a hoax, then they all are).
(3) Overusing the signal/noise analogy. If we are going to use this analogy, then we should compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges. All to often, it is used to describe a hoaxer to a genuine report. The best way to search for signal is to collect reports and then look for similarities and constants. For instance, one cannot meaningfully speak of the "noise" of the MJ12 documents against the signal of radar-visual sightings--these categories exist on completely different "information channels"
(4) We should also talk about informational entropy and how it applies--might as well attempt to draw conclusions from the density or redundancy of data.
(5) Failure to ask guests to apply constraints (the real meaning of "qualify") to the objects of their research that is necessary to address the research question -- i.e. if a conscientous researcher such as Vallee wants to include the entire historical record of paranormal encounters, then perhaps we should address the possible data subsets that are mutually exclusive (partitions)?
(6) We should ask if the increased complexity of the hypothesis is caused by attempting to create ONE substantive entity to address the question of two or more simultanous questions A and B about mutually exclusive or independent phenomenal events.

There are others...but I think I will stop here.
 
Why stop ? I'm more then sure 90% of the Forum Denizens agree with you, this is not ATS, and thank whomever for that.
 
Why stop ? I'm more then sure 90% of the Forum Denizens agree with you, this is not ATS, and thank whomever for that.

I didn't think it would be polite--I didn't want to overstate the negative stuff. The show overall is a very sober and successful examination of this subject. Plus I am getting tired.
 
I am very tired as well, (yet , I am patiently awaiting the 'kick-off' og Argentina against Germany), Lance, for what its worth, I want you to to cut this forum/board some slack since the 'photoshop' dude has gone.

I agree with your other observations wholeheartedly.

I still say that this board is about the most 'sane' any paranormal Forum/otherwise has been yet.

---------- Post added at 05:12 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:09 AM ----------

Oh, and by the way, before you call me dumb as well, please wait until the WC is over. :) Thank you. :)
 
Perhaps you might first explain why it matters...

Can you cite one instance where the statement has affected any scientific endeavor? It only comes up in the world of the paranormal because (as I said above) the evidence for the paranormal is virtually non-existent:

1. 75+ years of study of ESP with not ONE reproducible result.
2. 60+ years of UFO's with no clearcut proof.
3. 60+ years of hunting Bigfoot. Number of Bigfeet to date: 0.

The statement is one of common sense. It stands to reason that before we accept the kindly professor's word (and photos) that he went to Venus, we might ask for a little more evidence.
It also stands to reason that, before we change our hypotheses of the fundamental nature of the reality and the universe, we make damn sure that there is a good reason to do so.

Paranormalists often disagree with this. I have read a variation of your initial post many, many times, always written as though some miraculous revelation is being handed down.

Many believers do feel that their cases have been proven. They are stupid. And they are wrong. But they would certainly cheer your "idea" above:

Evidence? We don't need no stinking evidence!

In the real world, proving something takes good evidence, convincing evidence. Proving something that is super important and changes many people's lives requires overwhelming evidence, extraordinary evidence.

But you are welcome to accept the ordinary silly claptrap evidence of the paranormal if you wish. That is the point of your post, eh? To rally support for LESS scrutiny of claims and evidence? What a great idea in this field! As I said, you should find a lot of support among the believers.

Lance

---------- Post added at 05:01 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:59 AM ----------



You still love me, though?

Lance, you are being disingenuous again.
Corroborating independent reliable witnesses (often derisively called "anecdotal") are a form of evidence. You mention one incident (Adamski) which is a known hoaxer/embellisher--to lump all of these types together isn't very scientific.
ESP? Who cares, we're talking about high performance craft eluding trained pilots.
ESP? Wonder why the Air Force didn't higher contractors to review ESP data and give a report....why? Probably because they considered it "paranormal" enough to dismiss it outright--again...comparing apples to mangos (or tomatoes).
 
Lance, you are being disingenuous again.
Corroborating independent reliable witnesses (often derisively called "anecdotal") are a form of evidence. You mention one incident (Adamski) which is a known hoaxer/embellisher--to lump all of these types together isn't very scientific.
ESP? Who cares, we're talking about high performance craft eluding trained pilots.
ESP? Wonder why the Air Force didn't higher contractors to review ESP data and give a report....why? Probably because they considered it "paranormal" enough to dismiss it outright--again...comparing apples to mangos (or tomatoes).

Hostile in a sweet way, aren't we..
 
I agree with that. I do get frustrated when I read the same tired arguments such the the initial post--I can't imagine what possible good that such a way of thinking could produce (although I like Michael Allen's more recent post).

When you say "cut some slack" do you mean post less? I admit that I am getting tired of the paranormal. Angel is a much more reasonable skeptic than I am but I do think he is a true skeptic. I often begin a reply and see his earlier post and figure he covered it already (and in a nicer way).

Oh well--enjoy the game,

Lance

"cut some slack"(I get what you mean though) Never said that, but god no, I love you being here and I mean that honestly. :)

I just don't like being called a believer, I like the show now probably more than I did a year ago,
but I still believe in nothing.
 
See, that is what I like about you (inebriated ;P). Skeptics are way more scarce then 'believers', therefore I applaud you and genuinely like you from your posts alone. You always have valid points, more then one most of the time, yet we disagree.

See you after todays game, Sir. :)
 
Lance,

Firstly I have to address the connection to UFOs:

Carl Sagan coauthored (edited) a book with Thorton Page called "Ufo's: A Scientific Debate" -- this book featured papers from a conference on UFOs for which Sagan was a participant. My discussion of this claim is relevant to UFOlogy, because Sagan apparently is knuckle-headed enough to spin soundbites into mid-air while the other participants (Dr J. Allen Hynek, Jim McDonald, etc) are presenting actual reports and data. Ironically, Sagan--an icon of modern science, skepticism and rational thought---presents the most vacuous paper in the conference. Basically, Sagan states that we have to be very careful studying UFOlogy because we have an "emotional stake" -- if that's true, then perhaps we should be careful about studying nuclear physics, ecology or climatology. To act as if UFOlogy is special in this regard is not what I would call "fair and balanced." More likely, Sagan, Menzel, and other debunkers lumped a serious study into magic, religion, mythology and such--guilt by association.

The same tactics are being used today to (attempt) discredit real science--for instance, derisively comparing climate science to "voodoo" or "magic" in order to throw cold water on established scientific consensus.





Hynek threw out cases where only one individual witnessed the event--this means that non-corroborating anecdotal reports were considered unreliable. Reports from independent witnesses can be used to weed out fakers\hoaxers and other miscreants--but with a lone witness spinning out stories, there simply has to be additional (physical, photographic, radar, etc) evidence establishing the event.


And of course, "anecdotal evidence," if you want a cavalier dismissal.....In other cases, you'll might be dealing with

"multiple corroborating witness testimony backed by multiple radar/sensory data combined with traces on the ground and government documentation showing an obvious coverup" -- that's harder to dismiss.
 
One of the things that sets this board apart from others is that very different points of view are discussed in a civil manner, or at least 90% of the time it is civil. Well, in that disconnected internet civility way I mean. Anyway, I often agree and disagree with you and Angel. But more to the point I appreciate your representing a point of view that is often counter to the normal paranormal enthusiasts opinion. Skepticism is not necessarily a bad thing. If carried to far it can be. Seeing possibilities in the paranormal subjects is not necessarily a bad thing. Taking that too far is. I think this board is overwhelmingly representative of the middle ground.

I agree with that. I do get frustrated when I read the same tired arguments such the the initial post--I can't imagine what possible good that such a way of thinking could produce (although I like Michael Allen's more recent post).
Conversely, I too get frustrated when hearing the same tired debunkery of the phenomenon. But, at least it gives me plenty of opportunity to fine tune my rebuttal opinions and ultimately I get less worked up when subjected to it.

When you say "cut some slack" do you mean post less? I admit that I am getting tired of the paranormal. Angel is a much more reasonable skeptic than I am and I do think he is a true skeptic. I often begin a reply and see his earlier post and figure he covered it already (and in a nicer way).

Lance
I get the feeling that some tensions are a bit high board wide at the moment. That is what I think was meant by the "cut some slack" comment. The posts between you and Michael Allen are seeming to escalate in an adversarial tone and I think this was an attempt to say "Lets simmer down a bit". Though I could just be projecting my feelings onto this comment.
 
I'm really enjoying the discussion in this thread. I've said many times before that I'm a supporter of the JREF and other skeptical "organizations," and in other paranormal forums, I'd be gone. That's the great thing about this forum and this thread, you have skeptics and paranormalists (??) having a pretty decent discussion. I do take offense when people poo-poo on Carl Sagan. Having read so much by him, I'm quite certain that he had a similar interest in the paranormal that I have (not that I could ever compare myself to him). He wanted to find out if there was something to it, but there was never anything to convince him - at least that's what "A Demon Haunted World" showed.
 
I have a somewhat different perspective on all this.

Most of us think certain experiences (e.g. being in love) are very important. They would remain important even if/when we also have scientific explanations for why people have these experiences. We don't try to dismiss the importance of love just because it can (at least in part) be accounted for by science.

Why are (say) paranormal (and I would add, religious) experiences treated differently? Is it because most people don't have them, so they haven't acquired the social importance that (say) being in love has? Does that mean they should be trivial or unimportant to the people who do have them?
 


@dyingsun:

Understood.

As long as I have written as a skeptic on these topics, this has been a problem.

See, I don't mind being called a skeptic, ever. But what term (that doesn't take ages to type out) can I use to describe those who think that there is something more to the paranormal. Believer is a bit unfair, I admit. Kevin Randle suggested UFO (or Paranormal) Supporter, I think, but I never warmed to it. I often use paranormal enthusiast.

To be candid, many many of the folks I call believers are exactly that: dogmatic paranormal sheep. But what is a fair term for those who are less sure about it all?

Lance

Actually Lance you struck one of the problems I have encountered about defining the 'UFO community' in my thesis. I have used the term 'UFO enthusiast' which I am not particularity happy with for numerous reasons. As a sociologist the tendency to use shorthand such as these , while not meant to offend often betrays the complexity of those involved (I hope that the depth my work will show this). For instance you would be part of this (and me now!) as you interact within this 'sub culture' (which I assume you would not wish to be described as, and I am sure many others of both sides of the debate). If anyone can think of a truely 'neutral' way of describing those that interact within these type of 'virtual UFO community's' or the wider 'UFO community' I would love to hear their suggestions.

Sorry for the derailment from the original posters er.. post, but Lances observation has been perplexing me for some time now.
 
I can see why this would be important to paranormal devotees. Because the evidence for that sucks!
I suppose I might tend to align with Sagan over a random internet guy, but I'm am sure you will find some agreement here.

Lance

Not from me they won't.

We might like to think that all things are equal, but they're not. Take the law, for example. There are two different burdens of proof. In civil law, you only have to meet the standard of "on the balance of probabilities," meaning that it's more likely than not that what you assert happened as you claim. With the criminal law, however, the standard is much higher - beyond a reasonable doubt - because the stakes are much higher, namely the loss of your liberty, perhaps even your life in some cases in those countries that still insist on imposing capital punishment, as opposed to the monetary penalties usually imposed in a civil case. This is as it should be, and it's exactly the same kind of thing that Sagan was properly talking about when it comes to extraordinary claims of the paranormal. And yet, paranormal die-hards seem to go in the opposite direction - not only do they not offer extraordinary evidence for their claims, as Sagan required (let's call that "beyond a reasonable doubt"), but in most cases they offer less than even the baseline standard of "on the balance of probabilities."
 
I'm really enjoying the discussion in this thread. I've said many times before that I'm a supporter of the JREF and other skeptical "organizations," and in other paranormal forums, I'd be gone. That's the great thing about this forum and this thread, you have skeptics and paranormalists (??) having a pretty decent discussion. I do take offense when people poo-poo on Carl Sagan. Having read so much by him, I'm quite certain that he had a similar interest in the paranormal that I have (not that I could ever compare myself to him). He wanted to find out if there was something to it, but there was never anything to convince him - at least that's what "A Demon Haunted World" showed.


I'm really enjoying this thread as well. Unfortunately I'm not as "enthusiastic" with the JREF as you are. I believe there are issues on both sides that need to be examined (sceptics and enthusiasts). I just read this interesting article. Check it out.
When the scientific evidence is unwelcome, people try to reason it away | Ben Goldacre | Comment is free | The Guardian
 
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