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Reframing the Debate: A Path Forward or Backward?

Discussion in 'The UFO Forum' started by Thomas R Morrison, Nov 28, 2017.



  1. Thomas R Morrison

    Thomas R Morrison Paranormal Adept

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    We’ve been hearing a lot of talking points from the Reframing the Debate folks in recent months, and this week’s Paracast was no exception.

    Susan Demeter-St-Clair is an engaging and charismatic speaker, but in my estimation her logic kept going off the rails when she presented many of the arguments against the ETH that we’ve heard so much about lately. I also found this interview to be oddly frustrating: she’s seen three different and very evidently physical craft, and yet she’s changed her mind and now she seriously questions if they were actually physical craft. But her reasons for doing so make no sense to me.

    Here are the key objections to the ETH offered by the advocates of "reframing the debate," and why I think that each one is illogical and/or mistaken:

    - The ETH hasn’t solved the ufo enigma in 70 years, so it’s a fruitless direction for progress. Therefore what we need are new ideas.

    The first statement is a fundamental error in logic, because a correct hypothesis doesn’t prove itself. What we need is good data, not new ideas (new ideas are always fun to talk about, but ideas don’t answer questions, data answers questions). Progress in understanding any observed phenomenon requires focused scientific efforts such as designing and deploying technical apparatus, collecting data, analyzing the data, and publishing peer-reviewed academic papers about the findings. None of that has been done on the ufo subject, at least not in the public sector. That’s why we haven’t made any progress in understanding the phenomenon. To make real progress we’d need a wide range of technological resources, both dedicated and passive. We’d need things like; quick-response high-speed jets armed with gun cameras and other scientific equipment to gather data from anomalous targets, a professional team of trained scientists to analyze the data collected, a network of cinetheodolites at ufo hotspots and nuclear facilities to film and track anomalous phenomena, and ideally a national passive radar system to track and profile anomalous intrusions of our airspace – which would also be the ideal starting point for the deployment of other observational technology, such as Chris O’Brien’s portable sensor arrays, to event areas. In practice, our military already has all of these kinds of resources so the smartest route would entail enlisting their cooperation for mounting an earnest scientific investigation, but I don’t see that happening without a congressional order.

    - Ufos are observed near the Earth but not in space, so they must be local rather than interstellar in origin.

    Astronomers have very limited capability with detecting relatively small objects in space, and the public has no access to the AN/FPS-133 Air Force Space Surveillance System’s raw radar data that tracked objects in the near-Earth vicinity for over 50 years. Fairly large meteors arrive without warning all the time - we don’t know about them until they burn up dramatically in the atmosphere. And those move at relatively slow velocities. Fast and rapidly accelerating objects roughly the size of a school bus would be virtually impossible to detect without access to military radar hardware and/or a large network of sensitive dedicated telescopes to observe the celestial sphere, neither of which are available to us.

    - There’s no proof of life outside of the solar system.

    We don’t have the capability to detect life on exosolar planets, so the absence of such evidence is totally meaningless. However, the data that we can collect right now has proven that roughly 22% of all the stars in the universe are orbited by an Earth-like planet in the habitable zone, and the building blocks of life such as amino acids and other organic molecules permeate space. So we have every reason to expect life to be common throughout the universe. Similarly, SETI’s failure to detect radio signals from other worlds is not at all surprising: if there were an identical SETI program on a planet around the nearest star system, Alpha Centauri, it wouldn’t be sensitive enough to detect any Earth-based radio communications because our transmission signals are too weak. It could pick up some of our high-powered radar transmissions, but even those are too weak to detect at distances much beyond that, and they contain no information. Also, our “radio broadcast era” is already fading away as more efficient targeted satellite relay systems and cable lines now dominate our communications, so if other civilizations have a similarly brief single century of widespread radio transmissions, the odds of a nearby planet going through the same radio era while we happen to be looking for it, is essentially nil.

    - If a civilization hundreds or thousands of years more advanced than we are were to visit us, then we wouldn’t even be able to recognize their devices as interstellar craft because they’d be so confounding to us.

    This is a bizarre objection – our ability to perceive does not depend on our ability to understand. People accurately described ball lighting, a phenomenon beyond our understanding until very recently, quite accurately. And the indigenous people of the Americas observed Western sailing ships arriving from Europe, and those ships were hundreds if not thousands of years ahead of their technology, yet they reported what they observed accurately. Similarly, if a technological device arrives from another star, we may not understand how it works, but we’d be perfectly capable of describing its appearance and its behavior – even if both of those were highly exotic. Which appears to be exactly what’s happened for at least several decades – people describing strange devices that maneuver with capabilities far beyond our own.

    - People reported seeing chariots of the gods and fairies and dragons hundreds of years ago, so we should take that literally, and conclude that the same phenomena that we’re witnessing today has simply changed appearance to suit our expectations.

    This is a hollow argument – we didn’t even have the notion of a “flying machine” until roughly a hundred years ago, so nobody would’ve had the language to describe such a thing in the sky. They would’ve had to use terms like “a chariot of the gods” or “an angel glowing in the sky” or “a fiery dragon” to describe something like a ufo. So to impose –our current conception- of those notions, on what they meant when they said “dragon” or “angel” or “chariot”…and conclude that that’s what they were seeing, is a wild and bizarre leap to make. But to take the next step and conclude that, therefore, the same phenomenon that appeared as a winged dragon 500 years ago, appears to us now as a shiny metallic disc or a black triangle with bright lights on each corner, is nuts. There isn’t any indication from psychological or anthropological studies that the human mind is so weak and malleable that a primitive witness would actually observe a mythical creature when confronted with advanced technology. Their terminology is limited to the words that they have in their vocabulary – an ancient Mayan isn’t going have the words to report “I saw a reflective metallic disc-like flying apparatus of possibly extraterrestrial origin that levitated and then accelerated to a velocity of Mach 5 at roughly 100 g’s” – he’s probably going to say something like “My brother – I have seen a vision of Quetzalcoatl this day: we must burn our crops before he punishes us for planting early this growing season.”

    - Flaps seem to correspond to sociopolitical upheavals and general societal anxiety, such as the fall of the Berlin wall and McCarthyism.

    When has there ever been a quiet time in world history for us to compare this with? Never. The world is always in flux, so this view appears to be nothing more than confirmation bias at work.

    - People are changed by their sighting experience, so we should study the witness instead of what has been witnessed.

    Of course people are changed by a sighting – any experience that dramatically challenges one’s worldview will have that effect. If our ancient Mayan had seen a nuclear submarine rise to the ocean surface, we wouldn’t learn much about the submarine by studying his/her transformation from a farmer into an artist.

    - In abduction reports, the medical procedures seem primitive – they should be able to get what they need non-invasively.

    It’s difficult to imagine a time when biopsy procedures will be obsolete – if you want to study what’s going on inside the body, taking a sample is far more informative than an MRI. And a DNA sample like those that we get with a cheek swab, only reveals the DNA blueprint of the organism, not its current biological condition.

    - Aliens appear in rooms and walk through walls, which is paranormal/ghost-like behavior.

    Almost all of the volume within a solid object is space, so there are probably technological methods for passing material objects through a wall or window; we just haven’t figured out how to do it yet. One could reasonably argue that the ETH predicts that if an alien civilization visits the Earth, then they’d probably have other technological capabilities beyond our own in addition to rapid interstellar spaceflight capability.

    - Sightings could involve dream logic and symbology that we’re missing by focusing on the idea of a physical spaceship.

    That’s fine, somebody should do a study about that and let us know if they find anything interesting. But personally, I think this is like a blind man looking in a dark room for a black cat which is not there, because these things don’t appear to us as dreamy visions – they appear to us as solid technological craft.

    - The idea that ufos are solid craft of some kind is just an untested hypotheses that can’t be verified without examining one in a laboratory setting, and that approach is inherently ill-suited for this investigation anyway because science is rational and the ufo phenomenon is irrational.

    Okay first off, we have radar returns and landing impressions: that’s not an untested hypothesis, that’s physical evidence which directly supports the “physical craft” interpretation. They also emit light, and we know from the conservation of energy that light is energy and so it has to be emitted from something physical, like a craft. Also, it’s silly to say that we can’t verify a hypothesis without examining a phenomenon in the lab; we do it all the time. We’ve explained lots of phenomena without isolating them in the lab; the Sun, supernovas, black holes, comets, quasars, the aurora borealis – the list goes on and on. What’s required is precision technical data using scientific instruments to record and measure a phenomenon so that data can then be analyzed, and ultimately yield a physical phenomenological explanation. And finally, no observed phenomenon in the universe is intrinsically irrational, so this suggestion that the scientific method itself is inadequate for understanding ufos is rather alarming. Opponents of the ETH are seriously suggesting that we abandon science and the Age of Reason, in favor of returning to folklore and mythology studies for the answers. That’s kind of terrifying – I don’t want to go back to Dark Ages methodology.

    Look – I’m totally open to discussing alternative explanations, but I demand that any proposed explanation holds up to reason. An explanation has to make sense. If it doesn’t, then it’s not a valid explanation, imo. And so far the only hypothesis that’s A.) intelligible and B.) conforms to the vast and growing body of scientific knowledge, is the ETH. All of the other explanations I’ve heard so far simply invoke paranormal/psychic phenomena – but we don’t have explanations for those yet either, so trying to explain one mystery by invoking another mystery does not strike me as a step in the right direction.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2017
  2. wwkirk

    wwkirk Paranormal Adept

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    The ETH strikes back.:D
     
  3. Usual Suspect

    Usual Suspect USI Calgary

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    Fabulous post. We think almost in parallel on virtually all the points you've made. When I need to take a break, it's nice to see someone else carying the torch so to speak.

    At the risk of stirring-up more trouble, I'll say that it seems to me that the idea that all opinions deserve equal weight is favored by those who want their relatively unsubstantiated opinions to be taken as seriously as everyone else's, which means that their book or video or whatever they are invested is ( in their mind ) deserving of equal praise and attention. And with the ETH already well established as the most likely explanation, in order to remain entertaining or fresh, new alternatives need to be constantly cooked-up that can be sold as equally valid just because they're different.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2017
  4. Thomas R Morrison

    Thomas R Morrison Paranormal Adept

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    I'm grateful to find that you and a few other insightful members here see these issues in a similar light, because when I listen to hours of ETH-bashing (which usually entails lots of underhanded use of terms like "nuts and bolts craft" - even though we all know that the absence of nuts/bolts/rivets/seams is a key feature of ufo reports, and the rather insulting talk of "true believers" - which paints all ETH advocates like myself as cock-eyed cultists by dismissing our very logical and well-supported rationale for our positions regarding this phenomenon), it makes me feel like I'm on crazy pills. I had a very similar sensation when I was forced to listen to a group of astrology enthusiasts in San Francisco very earnestly discussing the intricacies of imaginary planetary influences upon the incredibly mundane daily minutia of their lives...all this talk about "alternate realities" and "imperceptible supernatural entities psychically projecting visions of solid objects into our minds" has a disquieting "New Agey" quality to it.

    I'm glad you pointed out that all opinions are not created equal. It seems that our culture has moved from "moral relativity" to "cognitive relativity," because this view that all conclusions are equally likely until a scientific consensus is achieved, pervades all kinds of discussions these days, and it's deeply alarming. It seems that people within our society are losing the ability to apply critical reasoning, and so we're seeing a chilling return to mythopoetic views of reality itself. It's like religious thinking has returned with a vengeance, and all gussied up in pretty new terminology and the pretense of ideological superiority, it's out to paint the rationalists as dewy-eyed dreamers and gullible marks, when nothing could possibly be farther from the truth.
     
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  5. mike

    mike Administrator Staff Member

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    Excellent post.

    There’s no proof of life outside of the solar system.

    That might change sooner than we suspect.

    Russian cosmonauts have reportedly discovered tiny bacteria on a swab collected from outside the International Space Station, and they’re confident that the organisms didn’t originate on our planet. If the discovery can be confirmed, it would be the very first concrete evidence of extraterrestrial life
    Russians claim they’ve found the first extraterrestrial life, and it was right under our noses



    - People reported seeing chariots of the gods and fairies and dragons hundreds of years ago, so we should take that literally, and conclude that the same phenomena that we’re witnessing today has simply changed appearance to suit our expectations.

    Thats simply a matter of lexicon. and to give a real world example we have the cargo cult, who also saw chariots of the gods that were simply structured craft beyond their ken.

    Aboriginal people thought the first Europeans they saw might have been ghosts, or evil spirits. Their
    Dreaming provided them with no clues as to who these pale-skinned, strangely dressed people might be.
    Some wondered if they might be women, as they had no beards.
    Some tried to find a place for them in their kinship system by treating them as spirits of their dead, and
    offering them food and women.

    It soon became clear that the ‘visitors’ planned to stay. They were clearing land near sacred
    sites, fencing off properties, which cut access to waterholes and hunting grounds, and fishing
    without permission of the elders.

    Besides, more and more of them were arriving. Indigenous people became increasingly worried. These ‘spirits of their former dead’
    did not speak the language they did.

    The first white settlers were not spirits, or women. Simply unknown entity's in structured craft beyond the local experience.

    I thinks its reasonable to suggest the same dynamic can be applied to "chariots of the gods".
     
  6. mike

    mike Administrator Staff Member

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    The ETH hasn’t solved the ufo enigma in 70 years, so it’s a fruitless direction for progress. Therefore what we need are new ideas.


    Medical science hasnt given us a cure for cancer after 70 years so its a fruitless direction for progress, perhaps we need to start shaking a dead chicken and some hand made beads over patients and chant unga bunga boo..........
     
  7. blowfish

    blowfish Whittingham

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    Still on the fence with that one Mike and to be fair those researchers have not had the funding mainstream gets ! How about Lawrence Fawcett & Barry J. Greenwood The UFO Cover Up (1984) , A Covert Agenda by Nick Redfern and James Carrion 'The Rosetta Deception ' not ignore the more mundane or bleak look 'Wired for War' by Peter Singer which human race has to look forward to in the future. PSI by the late Jim Marrs, Invisible Residents by late Professor Ivan T. Sanderson and Evolution of Space Sir Fred Holye and George Knapp's work with Bob Lazar story.
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2017
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  8. Burnt State

    Burnt State Paranormal Adept

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    Please point to cases where landing impressions are verified as they happened and not after the fact. The stringing together of discontinuous evidence to point at the fact a solid craft actually touched down is a common problem in ufology. There are perhaps only a small collection of such cases. Too much in this field is taken for granted and taken as fact. Cases are being constantly re-examined and seen as hoaxes, or have mundane explanations. Much of the cases seen as trace evidence cases have little by way of connecting facts to substantiate them.
     
  9. Burnt State

    Burnt State Paranormal Adept

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    The entire notion that an advanced species that can transit the stars needs to personally collect soil samples or gouge or bodies for medical samples is ludicrous at best. Even we can complete non invasive procedures without sawing off someone's arm and then reattach it or by sexually violati g us...we also know how to collect samples from other planets robotically. Are you trying to say that all those scenes of aliens scrambling about the ground and collecting bits of earth actually makes sense?
     
  10. mike

    mike Administrator Staff Member

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    Many alkaloids from higher plants (such as reserpine, caffeine, and vinblastine) are of medicinal and health value. Currently, over 120 drugs come from plant-derived sources. Of the 3000 plants identified by the US National Cancer Institute as active against cancer cells, 70% come from rainforests

    So, given our local model, that different biome's produce unique chemical compounds (we also get unique compounds from the marine biome) Why wouldnt that same dynamic apply at the next level. ie different planetary biomes produce unique chemical compounds worth discovering and exploiting.


    The sex organ abduction aspect ive already explored


    The repeated gynaecological examination problem some have trouble accepting makes any sense is only valid if it is a gynaecological scenario.

    If its a data storage/retreval sceanrio then it makes perfect sense, and again 50 years ago it would have made no sense at all. Now however

    In two recent experiments, a team of computer scientists at the University of Washington and Microsoft, and a separate group at the University of Illinois, have shown that DNA molecules can be the basis for an archival storage system potentially capable of storing all of the world’s digital information in roughly nine liters of solution, about the amount of liquid in a case of wine.
    The new research demonstrates that specific digital files can be retrieved from a potentially vast pool of data. The new storage technology would also be capable of keeping immense amounts of information safely for a millennium or longer, researchers said.
    It would also address a glaring Achilles’ heel at the heart of microelectronic data storage systems: Magnetic disks, tape and even optical storage systems safely store information at most for only a handful of decades.


    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/s...-dna-can-keep-it-safe-for-centuries.html?_r=0


    The raw storage capacity of DNA is staggering compared with even the most advanced electronic or magnetic storage systems. It is theoretically possible to store an exabyte of information, if it were coded into DNA, in the volume of a grain of sand. An exabyte is roughly equivalent to 200 million DVDs

    Computer scientists say they believe that as costs of sequencing and creating synthetic DNA continue to fall, it will soon be possible to create a new class of hybrid storage systems.
    “In the last year, it suddenly hit us that this fusion of computer technology and biology will be where future advances come from

    Data could have been coded into my Great great great to the 1ooth power grandparent, and it would available for retrieval today

    Biological systems have been using DNA as an information storage molecule for billions of years. Vast amounts of data can thus be encoded within microscopic volumes, and we carry the proof of this concept in the cells of our own bodies
    Could this ultimate storage solution meet the ever-growing needs of archivists in this age of digital information?

    DNA data storage: 100 million hours of HD video in every cup


    Researchers have done it again—encoding 5.2 million bits of digital data in strings of DNA and demonstrating the feasibility of using DNA as a long-term, data-dense storage medium for massive amounts of information. In the new study released today (January 23) in Nature, researchers encoded one color photograph, 26 seconds of Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech, and all 154 of Shakespeare’s known sonnets into DNA

    Scientists have long recognized DNA’s potential as a long-term storage medium. “DNA is a very, very dense piece of information storage,” explained study author Ewan Birney of the European Molecular Biology Laboratory-European Bioinformatics Institute

    http://www.the-scientist.com/?artic...09/title/DNA-based-Data-Storage-Here-to-Stay/

    Harvard cracks DNA storage, crams 700 terabytes of data into a single gram | ExtremeTech



    More than 98 percent of all DNA, was called "Junk DNA" by molecular biologists, because they were unable to ascribe any function to it. They assumed that it was just "molecular garbage". If it were "junk", the sequence of the "syllables", i.e. the nucleotides in DNA should be completely random.
    However it has been found that the sequence of the syllables is not random at all and has a striking resemblance with the structure of human language (ref. Flam, F. "Hints of a language in junk DNA", Science 266:1320, 1994, see quote below). Therefore, scientists now generally believe that this DNA must contain some kind of coded information. But the code and its function is yet completely unknown.

    Junk DNA" - Over 98 percent of DNA has largely unknown function

    The narrative in regards to sperm and ova collection also fits this idea, It would be within these cells that the data would be most likely to be in uncorrupted form.
    Other cells in the body would contain the data, but are more prone to free radical degradation etc

    As i said it would explain the preoccupation with the "reproductive" systems.
    That is after all their specialised function, to make transportable copies of the entire data set.

    As i understand it anal probing seems to be a male experience, and is often associated with involuntary erection/ejaculation.
    Females seem to get the needle in the belly routine.
     
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  11. blowfish

    blowfish Whittingham

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    Now why did you post twice ? Which oddly reminds me of the Book by author Terry Hansen 'The Missing Times " and How about the case of Bentwaters ? Also lets be fair there is lot of the classified information has never been relased or very heavly retacted. Why do you think a highly advance intelligence could not move through space have you been to other parts of the our Solar System? How about Earths oceans which Scicence suggest human have only study 10% and rest still unexplored . How about space? All your question a speculative and you saying all the eyewitness of UFO sightings are lying? In addition, have you read all those books above? Agree the field has been muddy by hoaxes and some who are still flying through the galaxly in tin foil hats.
     
  12. Burnt State

    Burnt State Paranormal Adept

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    Ok, I do enjoy the idea of DNA as a storage medium. It reminds of the Hitchhikers Guide's notion of the planet as a computer designed by mice to get the answer to everything. However, say you're a technologically advanced species and you need some eggs, sperm or DNA are you telling me that they wouldn't have the capacity to do it in such a non-intrusive manner that we wouldn't even notice it happened? Why go through all the abduction medical drama and trauma? Does that sound like an advanced species at work or humans having nightmares about past medical traumas inside earth based hospitals? What's the more likely option?
     
  13. Burnt State

    Burnt State Paranormal Adept

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    What's entirely speculative is that ships carrying life forms from other planets need to visit earth on the scale of millions of times to get soil, eggs and sperm by hand using rather retro technology. And what's even more speculative is that while they are doing it they often appear to look like humans, are humanoid in shape and often breathe our air. It's as if they came from this planet.
     
  14. blowfish

    blowfish Whittingham

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    How do we know and until all the evidence is on the table Science is the best method but does not have all the answers. Also recommend you read Most Secret War by R.V.Jones and how secrets are kept during peace and wartime. Still think Stanton T.Friedman Nuclear Physicist is right about "black projects" and his book 'Science Was Wrong '(2010) as example of science does not get right all the time.
     
  15. Burnt State

    Burnt State Paranormal Adept

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    Well we at least know better than the "aliens" how to perform medical procedures on other life forms and our medical science is just beginning to get going when it comes to non-intrusive procedures. What was it Sagan said, that aliens might need to visit here every few thousand years to get a soil sample. And I doubt any alien feet would need to come close to walking on the earth to get it. And yet by Vallee and Poher's calculations we've had 14 million close encounter visits at a conservative estimate over only a 40 year period in the strange history of the UFO. So yeah there's a lot we don't know but what we do know seems a little suspicious doesn't it? It seems rather strange the whole cabal of close encounter reports. I know people are big on all the lights on the sky and the various radar reports. I find some of these to be highly intriguing. What do we know of these sightings and their connection to the shape shifting, form melding, disappearing ships, some made of honeycombed spider webs with giant gill breathing catfish spacemen, or looking like flying hotels with windows? I don't know. It seems like something else is going on here. There's a wool being pulled over our eyes or we're helping the blanket over us methinks.
     
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2017
  16. blowfish

    blowfish Whittingham

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    Indeed, the ridicule machine is alive and well Strange signals were just spotted coming from a distant galaxy
    Also who says off world so called intelligent is physical ? and current mojo is "consciousness " why and where is the evidence ? Science has found photosynthesis can exist in extreme conditions on Earth and speculative thinking it might be able to survive on other planets it's a life form . Science uses speculation so why can't other parts of the society not? Also how many humans new about Cold War operations under sea.Declassified Images Show The Deep-Sea Rescue Of A Cold War Era Spy Satellite Capsule, Declassified: US Nuclear Weapons At Sea, http://dosits.org/people-and-sound/...story-of-the-sound-surveillance-system-sosus/, TOP SECRET: Your Briefing on the CIA's Cold-War Spy Satellite, 'Big Bird'
     
  17. mike

    mike Administrator Staff Member

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  18. mike

    mike Administrator Staff Member

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    Thats kind of like saying please point to Police reports of tyre skid marks that were verified as they happened and not after the fact.

    Forensic accident investigators see skid marks all the time, they interview witness's that saw the vehicle involved, they then measure the marks and use that to determine the speed of the vehicle.
    They didnt see the accident, didnt see how fast it was going, didnt see it leave skid marks. But their observations absolutely stand up in court as facts.

    UFO Trace - Landing Mark
     
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  19. mike

    mike Administrator Staff Member

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    Academic throws light on 40-year-old UFO mystery - National - theage.com.au

    The UFO appears to have left a circle of scorched grass; others say several circles were left in paddocks bordering Grange Reserve. "I went over and there was a circle in the clearing. It looked like it had been cooked or boiled, not burnt as I remember," he said. "A heap of kids from Westall primary and high school came charging through to see what had happened — 'look at this, look at that, we saw it as well', that sort of thing. It was a bit of a talking point for a couple of days."
     
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  20. blowfish

    blowfish Whittingham

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