Ron, When I say that pilots are no more or less reliable than other witnesses I am speaking about the group as a whole. Certainly pilots are not likely to be fooled by Venus, its a simple matter to sort that one out. I have seen Venus looking like a second sunrise but a quick glance at an astronomical almanac can resolve that directly. The real point is that some pilots have the education and background to be able to bring analytical skills to bear on their observation and determine if it is unusual or not. Others do not. Add to that personal beliefs, personal experience and temperament and you will encounter a full spectrum of responses, conclusions and attitudes. The same thing applies to ground observers. Some people have the skillset and mindset to engage an examination of their experience and come to some fairly accurate conclusions. Others yell "Aliens" and either run like hell or grab a flashlight and start signaling. Then they write a book on the "Reptilan Influences on Western Civilization" and start doing conferences and seminars. Pilots have followed this course as well. It is more likely that a pilot will misidentify something as unusual if its at a distance than when it involves aviation safety issues like perceived NMACS, dynamic trajectories, etc... It is interesting that pilots, regardless of their educational background or flight experience/flight hours, continue to report the same kinds of observation since before the 1930s and that the observations involve the same descriptions over decades....
I can accept that honesty and critical thinking must follow an observation regardless the observer or the results are dubious at best. I can also accept that distance and complex trajectories can fool even those with good and honest intentions. I would also agree with one of your other posts that a visual sighting gains credibility when witnessed by multiple observers and/or backed up by radar. To be honest I am somewhat of an optimist. I have this image of the smart, honest, observant, and unshakable pilot in my head. (BTW, that is not an ego projection of how I see myself. Rather an image from childhood to aspire to.) Though, every month I open Aviation Safety and see incidents and accidents attributed to simple mistakes like running out of gas. I may need to re-evaluate my opinion on this. Can I ask a few questions from your research? I want to be more informed than I am right now. Perhaps you have some of these answers. If not thats OK, I am just curious. 1 -- Of pilot reports what percentage of sighting reports come from Military, Commercial, and GA pilots? Specifically, in what capacity were they operating when the sighting occurred? 2 -- Has any one capacity been shown to be more reliable than another? 3 -- Do you know how often on average ATC spots traffic in non-military designated areas that have no transponder squawk? 4 -- If a military aircraft is in civilian ATC controlled airspace they are supposed to use a transponder squawk per FAA regulations. What measures are/can be taken for aircraft that violate that safety rule? 5 -- I have been told by a few older pilots and one controller that military aircraft are supposed to communicate their presence to ATC in controlled airspace like everyone else. How often is this procedure broken? 6 -- In reported sightings from pilots that are deemed unknown, are there distance, speed, size, and altitude tolerances that most fall into? Also, I want to thank you for your continued contributions to the forum. I know I speak for many when I say your insights are very welcome.
Oberg has not made any decent points or provided legitimate data to back up his story. He does not make a plausible case, and that is why his article failed so bad.
Actually, I think that is true. For instance, if I am flying at 7 thousand feet and there is a cloud ceiling at 12 thousand feet and I clearly see an object I have frames of reference. Namely the ceiling and my altitude. I would rather see an object in these conditions exhibiting extreme flight characteristics than on a beautiful clear winter night or day.
Hi Ron, Regarding your questions: 1. In my analysis of 120 cases involving UAP and aviation safety issues, the percentage was nearly equal with a third being military, a third civilian and a third commercial. A larger data set might show something different, of course. Its really simply about who reports and where we find the data but we have heard from all varieties of aviation. 2. In scoring cases we look for radar data and multiple witnesses - in aviation cases that involves multiple aircraft and/or ATC witnesses. We have examples of this from all three aspects of aviaiton, private, military and commercial. 3. I don't have a percentage here but we often find that military will not squawk or when flying in groups only one will turn on its transponder. Sometimes this can be a bit eerie. We did a radar analysis of the last minutes of the EgyptAir 990 crash and found 6 a/c that did not have their transponders on in the immediate vicinity of that a/c when it went down. That is not public knowledge and a bit disconcerting. 4. Aside from reporting to the FAA upline and contacting the nearest military aviation hub to followup there is not much that can be done. I am not aware of any examples of punitive measures in this regard. 5. They are correct and I am sure that it really depends on whether the military are training, transporting or "active" and what they are up to. 6. in my analysis of 120 cases the reports showed no specific trend in altitude, size or velocity. Distances ranged from "close enough that I ducked my head to several miles distant. However, I was looking at aviation safety cases that included reported NMACs, dynamic trajectories by the UAP, pacing, etc.. Sizes ranged from softball sized lights to very large UAP. No trends in size though when we look at all cases, not just spheres, the estimate of disc shaped objects is often described at 30ft diameter. Many fighter pilots in older reports claimed that it was about the size of their own aircraft which makes the 30ft diameter estimate again. There are larger discs, and smaller ones. The famous Mexican case, Carlos de los Santos case, involved three small discs that he estimated at two meters in diameter. Same goes for spheres and cylinders. Sizes range from a couple feet to very, very large. I understand your bias regarding pilots. You are not alone. Airline pilots and cowboys are thought of as being the most trustworthy images in American culture. Many of us who are older were raised to believe that pilots were heroes and good guys. We had a lot of war movies and other media to reinforce that going on as well. Of course, we are all a bit more realistic these days but the bias lingers on. Also I agree with your perspective in your reply to Eddie....
Ted, Were you able to link higher quality photos from the PDF of the case you posted earlier? Thanks, Lance
Leslie Kean has mentioned last night during her appearance on Kevin Smith Show that she is preparing rebutall article to Oberg points. Thank you also Ted for all of your posts here on Paracast.
Oberg has replaced Philip J. Klass on someone's payroll. His job description is to ridicule and marginalize anything or anyone that wants to bring any sort of attention or clarity to the UFO phenomena. It's the only thing that reasonably explains his behavior to me.
Well, I for one love to fly with delusional pilots that didn't undergo extreme training to get where they are and mistake flocks of birds at 9000ft for an anomalous object. It's just ridiculous..next we will here is that the thin air in such altitudes streaming through little holes in the cockpit clouds their minds.
And as I have mentioned in quoted post above here is Leslie's reply in another thread: http://www.theparacast.com/forum/threads/7378-Leslie-Kean-Media?p=99076#post99076
